Eagle Eye

Convective Outlook️ During the early hours of Saturday, a few intense showers may develop across NE/N Eng, Scotland which may bring a few isolated lightning strikes. A bit uncertainty how much lightning activity will be within these showers, however we suspect there could be lightning strikes at times as cape levels seem likely to sit around 200-400J/KG. During the late morning / early afternoon, we should see 2 areas of interest from across parts of Scotland & SE/S England where sporadic lightning may occu Showers will develop across S/SE England before tracking N/NW where further showers may develop which may bring the odd couple of isolated lightning strikes. An area of interest has been put out as most models are suggesting Cape around 300-600J/KG alongside with intense shower development. A thunderstorm or few may develop for a time within this area during the afternoon period. Our attention will also focus across parts of Scotland, where Cape is also expected to be around 200-400J/KG with some models suggesting higher, however i think its safe to say this is an outlier. Heavy intense showers are expected to develop and become slowly moving across the AOI. A few lightning strikes may be embedded within these showers, possibly the odd thunderstorm.

Just passed my theory test for driving. Could well be storm chasing by next year.

@StormLoser Some stuff close to you to your north it seems. Interested if you can see much convection there?

Clear sign of the energy approaching. Roughly on track to where it's supposed to be as well.

A bit off my camera. From last night still. 1.mp4 2.mp4 4.mp4 5.mp4

CAPE pool is slightly more east than forecast it appears. May get a storm outside of the low as this one is getting dangerously close. Surprising shift in what the models had firmed up as a small overnight scenario growing in the morning. Or this is the earlier risk delayed, in which case refer to this slight risk but delay timings a bit and i think shrink the western extent of it as well.

StormLoser Energy tomorrow mid morning could be in excess of 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE. It's another weird scenario because of the showers and storms coming from the SE moving NW but sometimes those are the best.

Convective Outlook️ A new Theta-E centre of advection glides NW towards the east and perhaps more focused towards the NE of England, perhaps into Southern Scotland. Early to mid morning showers and storms should start forming by the coast, perhaps clustering up for a time. With 400+ J/KG of MLCAPE and modest lift there is risk for some sporadic to semi frequent lightning. However saturation is high. Lightning risk is likely to be limited but alternatively storms could be quite tall, up to around 9km. So it's a balance. Hail has a small chance of forming because the height of freezing is still relatively low. Weak CAPE and poor shearing limit it to small sized haul though. Main risk is semi-frequent lightning mid to late morning in the slight risk movimg NW and weakening into the afternoon with more trailing behind but weaker further. Some heavy rainfall possible within the stronger storms in the NE as well. Clustering risks a small chance of flash flooding in bigger clusters.

Thick stratiform cloud + high saturation. Means today is significantly under what was modelled by the UKV which rarely does well forecasting trailing cloud regions.

Only some screenshots of the lightning last night. There's something like 30 here and only 1 CC properly visible though to be fair, there were more that I shared earlier. A clear and beautiful updraft as well. Only lasted for at best 30 minutes but that was tilted right up into the storm. Didn't get much of it though. Some videos with the first one being the one where the stops brushed the coast. With frequent lightning ahead of me. My phone camera only tended to pick up 1 in 4 lightning strikes last night. petal_20240502_115358.mp4 Then the updraft. petal_20240502_121603.mp4 Finally, where the static charge in the air seemed to turn to noise on the camera then an audible pop before before of the lightning strikes. The air was very electric. The static kicks in around 5 seconds. Volume up. Meanwhile my camera was pointed up towards the flickers centred roughly above me. petal_20240502_122525.mp4 Some extra lightning photos just to add to the chaos around me. Id give it an 8/10 just struggled to put down and visible bolts and more flashes but for rate of lightning it's the most since a storm in 2018 for me I would guess at. However, that one only lasted 1 and a half hours. This one kept going for 5. The reason I didn't zoom in was to get that reflection off the window. Think I'll start doing that more often, the star trails feature on my phone is really good for lightning photos. And a few more videos to add to that. This time from the storm to the north. I must've seen about 10000 lightning strikes. Very few were being picked up on the sites though. VID_20240501_233803.mp4 VID_20240501_233824.mp4 VID_20240501_233929.mp4 Might have a few more from that northern storm to come later. Don't think my camera got much but I'll see if I can get much off of it as well. Mostly too distant for my camera which I try and get CG's with so keep Iso low.

Close up of my only CG last night as far as I know.

And I can finally rest after a busy few days. Hope everyone liked the new integration of the day 2 and day 3 outlooks Very good storm and also good verification of the risk. Definetely worth the long breakdown.

Convective Outlook️ During the afternoon, a convergence line will form within the SLGHT zone forcing intense showers & thunderstorms to develop. Instability is transferred to this area from the early hours intense storms, with cape sitting around 500-1000J/KG. In the late afternoon/ early evening, thunderstorms should start firing up bringing frequent lightning, hail & intense rainfall. We are slightly unsure how todays line of storms will form and how much lightning there will be, however if these storms do form, they can bring frequent lightning.

Southern Storm Not a single CG that I saw for 5 hours of storms here. Where I saw lightning on average every 5 seconds. Genuinely quite impressive from my newly installed CG shield. Great photo from you .

viking_smb Not till around 5 or 6am do I think it'll die off properly. Here's a photo off my camera. Wish the storm had gotten closer, imagine a CG lined up with the lights.