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Everything posted by al78

  1. I don't rank July as a great month for taking a hiking holiday in the UK. I stopped going to Scotland in July because it was inevitably five out of seven days of clag and one of two decent days when I could get a view. I now go to Scotland in May or June, which are climatologically the sunniest months, although last June had little interest in climatology when I was up there.
  2. You are right, even in the SE it is mediocre to sub par, but I get the impression it is less bad here. My family live in Salford, and going by some of the posts on here, I suspect they've been experiencing late October weather for the last month or so. You couldn't make it up, COVID restrictions easing, weather turns pants.
  3. A nice warm sunny day yesterday, now the punishment weather has set in. Another summer day needing the lights on at solar noon. It is noticeablee just how dull many of the days have been, and struggling to get past 20C in the south east at climatologiocally the warmest time of the year is a bit ridiculous.
  4. I thought you'd be used to that in the Lake District. Hilly areas in the west of the UK are always going to catch the cloud and rain, that is why they are the wettest places.
  5. Forgot to add, a supercell over Earley (Reading) in June 1998. Rain coming down like a waterfall, an inch in 15 minutes at the University weather station. Students union with its entrance located at the bottom of a slope flooded. Housemate came in reporting structural damage in the area. Peak rainfall rates near 160 mm/hr just north of Reading. TWISTER IN SUBURBIA; Families tell of terror as freak tornado leaves trail of havoc. - Free Online Library WWW.THEFREELIBRARY.COM Free Online Library: TWISTER IN SUBURBIA; Families tell of terror as freak tornado
  6. My group predicted a colder than average winter just gone, using QBO and solar cycle as predictors. Unfortunately the normal downward propagation of the QBO cycle was disrupted in autumn, so it never got into the phase conducive for mid/high latitude blocking, and we had one of the least frosty winters I can remember. There was a similar QBO disruption in 2015/16. If these are going to become more common, that is going to throw out whatever marginal skill there is in the winter NAO seasonal forecasts. I think SSTs in the Pacific also have some effect on the position of the winter jet stre
  7. Golf ball sized hail, around the mid 1980's in Salford (I was six years old at the time).
  8. Says a lot about our modern day climate if we have autumn chat in July. Have we really given up hope of ever having a warm sunny August?
  9. The former by far. Snow is just eye candy, it causes disruption when it gets compressed into ice, and sends the heating bills up. A mild winter has the possible interest of windstorms, although they can also be disruptive. Summer on the other hand is a time when people like to do outdoor activities and enjoy the sun, and if summer arrives and it is a cool clag fest, it is inevitably disappoiting, especially as the next season along is autumn, so climatologically the weather is only going to deteriorate, at least after a grotty winter there is the hope of a nice spring and warm summer.
  10. This summer is not a patch on 2012 so far for grottiness. June 2012 was horrible, dull and very wet. July so far has been dull and cool, but mostly dry. I have an allotment and the weather this summer is good for working outdoors, pleasantly cool enough to not get sweaty, and just enough rain that I don't have the silly situation of having to dump 300 litres of water on my crops every week like I did in April and May. If the second half of summer carries on like July so far I agree it would be a poor one overall, but it is very rare for an entire season to have the same weather throughout, unl
  11. I don't think most people are complaining the weather isn't warm and sunny for weeks on end. They are complaining because the weather is persistently cloudy, damp and cool for the time of year. It is not unreasonable to expect more than the equivalent of a mild November in July.
  12. There was certainly plenty of snow in Salford. A good eight inches in the back garden of my parent's house.
  13. The winter of 2010-11 was below average in terms of temperature, despite a mild February. If you define a UK winter as having all three months having significant snow, then yes, the UK doesn't have winter very often, but I think that is a ridiculous benchmark. The UK is not Scandinavia and doesn't receive widespread lasting snow very frequently as a rule. Temperate and oceanic defines the climate, in winter snow that falls mostly thaws in a couple of days except at altitude.
  14. You have forgotten about 2010, the coldest December for 100 years. March 2013, the coldest for 50 years
  15. The heatwave lasted no more than three days and we had plenty of poor weather in autumn and winter last year, culminating in the wettest February on record and destructive flooding in several places. I would say the spring we had was adequate compensation for this (perhaps overcompensation). Even last June, which was the end of the persistent warm dry locked in weather pattern, I was backpacking in the Scottish highlands over the first two weeks, and the only sunny day I got was the day I was leaving. The good old UK summer killer, the stalled low. Force 7-8 crosswinds on the Ullapool-Sto
  16. Maybe if we continue with a poor July, we might get compensation with a warm sunny August. Good Augusts have been rare over the last couple of decades, and it seems to often happen that if June and July are decent, August is a let down (e.g last year, bank holiday weekend excepted). It is very rare to have all three months of a season deviating significantly in the same direction from average.
  17. I've had a look at the correlation between April rainfall and the following summer rainfall, and there is nothing significant. There might be a couple of years where an inverse correlation was present but it doesn't hold up over the last 50 or so years at least.
  18. So far July has been notable for extremely dull days. It is ridiculous to need lighting on at solar noon in summer. Fortunately in my location the dull days have been interspersed with sunny days, except for the last two days of back to back clagfests. The dullness really makes it feel like autumn, as it feels like twilight has arrived an hour and a half before sunset. The gem squash in my greenhouse doesn't know whose climate it is experiencing. It went rampant in April and May, and I had problems with the greenhouse overheating (well over 40C on some days before I applied shading paint)
  19. Well, yes, that would be well above average in early March. Early March is still effectively winter, plant life doesn't wake up properly until near the end of the month and when the soil temperature starts to warm up.
  20. There was a fair bit of spatial variation. It was a very wet month in the SW, but the SE counties had near average sunshine and rainfall. Hot and sunny days have always been short lived in summer, the UK is not the Mediterranean, despite the spring we've just had.
  21. Yes you can. It might not have much, if any skill, but you can do one if you can find a predictor or two. There have been several attempts at seasonal forecasts for the winter NAO and UK winter.
  22. You have to be careful looking at monthly averages, because they tell you nothing about the internal variability within the month. A summer month that is dry for 29 days in one location then gets a severe thunderstorm on the last day dropping four inches of rain will look like a wet month in the stats, when really it isn't, whereas a month with frequent warm sector clag and drizzle and 40% less sunshine than normal, but an absence of moderate to heavy rain might end up drier than average, but it would be a poor summer month in most peoples eyes.
  23. I can relate to this. I don't like persistent clag in summer but I much prefer 20C to the 32C nonsense we had at the end of June. It is just so much easier to do stuff outside and sleep comfortably at night.
  24. June was warmer than average, although wetter. We are not even half way through summer yet so best to reserve judgement of the seasonal forecasts until after the season has finished.
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