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Everything posted by Beanz

  1. Yes, this is dreadful model watching at a time we really really don’t need it. Great had it been December/January - but please not now with all that’s going on ?
  2. But ‘Spanish Flu’ and ‘German Measles’ are ok?
  3. Thank you @Tamara - if only everybody on this forum was a sensible as you. Great post ??
  4. I don't believe that's why people have been doing it, it's been pure panic that it will all run out. After all, we could just order online if it was about contracting the virus from a trip to Waitrose.
  5. This is interesting analysis, suggesting close to 80% going undiagnosed...explains why it's spread so quickly. And yes, the CFR would then be somewhat lower, like less than 0.5% Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) SCIENCE.SCIENCEMAG.ORG Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of...
  6. Where did you hear that? Everything I've read suggests a vaccine could be developed and ready for human use by the end of the year, but to be available for distribution in any real quantity will take a lot longer. I wouldn't bank on being able to get your hands on a vaccine if you're a fit and healthy person below the age of 70, for quite some time. It'll be restricted for the very vulnerable at first.
  7. I read somewhere else it was the complete opposite, be interesting if thinking on this has moved on though. This article suggests ACE2 is the reason smokers are at greater risk Is smoking fueling coronavirus deaths in Chinese men? WWW.GOOGLE.CO.UK China's sky high smoking rate among men may help explain why they're more susceptible to coronavirus infection and death.
  8. This isn’t a model it’s a basic spreadsheet. I’d love to get the excel file and run through the assumptions and inputs pages with some experts. Needs auditing before consuming.
  9. Its the equivalent of Eastbourne isn't it for age demographic? Its also the region with the most migrants I believe.
  10. I think you’re either trying to get yourself out of a hole or you’re not understanding come of the technical aspects of this. A ‘cytokine storm’ could happen in moribund cases - that is people that are critically ill and dying. I don’t think it’s sensible to suggest that critically ill, or dying persons are likely to be walking the streets. Certainly not in any great numbers. Therefore to suggest that people will be collapsing in the streets due to Coronavirus is not correct.
  11. The quotes you’ve posted may well have been peer reviewed, but you’re using them to support arguments they were not intended to support.
  12. No, I’m not and the myth has been de-bunked a number of times. Its sensationalist reporting and quite frankly shameful. I’m aware of the Cytokine effects, but only applicable if you’re already dying. You certainly weren’t doing star jumps before that or walking about the streets either! Lets try and keep to the facts in this thread please.
  13. People don’t collapse in the streets because of Coronavirus ?
  14. Well I can’t take credit for it, but yes I thought it was quite interesting. Another article I found interesting was this piece analysing the characteristics of the Wuhan outbreak. I find medical professionals are far more balanced in their reporting of the facts than news agencies China’s cases of Covid-19 are finally declining. A WHO expert explains why. WWW.VOX.COM "It’s all about speed": the most important lessons from China’s Covid-19 response.
  15. Not exactly what you’re after, but a good piece of statistical analysis on age groups etc https://blog.sprucehealth.com/coronavirus-whos-going-to-die/ @philglossop possibly what you’re looking for..?
  16. Interesting more recent analysis from the NEJM "On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%. In another article in the Journal, Guan et al report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."
  17. What’s your source on that figure?
  18. Well winter has ended and without much in the way of snow or notable cold spells. Still we move on, there’s always next winter! Both ECM and GFS trending towards a dry and more settled outlook (ECM just a bit wet and stormy later on), if we can keep the low sitting just out of sight and let our friend Uncle Azores in a bit I think we’ll be good for Spring.
  19. @IDOexplained in a much more eloquent manner than I did (thanks ?). The downgrade I was referring to was from their (METO) forecast (on the app) which at around 6am this morning showed heavy snow for Thurs c.10am-midday IMBY (about 5 miles north of yours by the looks of it). By midday, and now referring to the app, website and video, it had downgraded to sleet IMBY and pretty much everywhere in the area I mentioned earlier. Either way, we can still keep fingers crossed for last min upgrades in real time!
  20. I was referring to their video forecast, rather than the written not that it makes much difference. In essence it amounts to the same, the source input is the same just in a more colourful output.
  21. 18z HIRLAM is in line with what the METO were forecasting from about lunchtime today. They downgraded from heavy snow in the Notts - Peterborough - London - Oxford area to sleet and it remains as such.
  22. Its certainly showing some interesting accum. I think I buy into the precip though.
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