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Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
A subtle eastward shift on the latest UKV. -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Was the Lymington downpour at about 1pm or thereabouts? We were walking the dog up Broad Lane, which has a great view over Lymington etc. We watched as the town disappeared under an intense rain core that I couldn't believe wasn't popping out lightning. In other news, TORRO have issued a tornado watch for many of us for later!- 458 replies
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Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Controversial to some no doubt, but I do enjoy weather like this where we're pummeled with days of unstable autumnal conditions. Yes, they're not proper thunderstorms for the most part, but it's all good fun. Could be a named storm next Thurs to add to the interest, too. -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Ah, but this side's much nicer overall -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I was in a work call at the time, but plenty of cracks of thunder recently. East side of the island having the most fun though as per! -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Well, I was right about that! An absolute procession of anvils over the channel for the last 24 hours. They're all lined up again this morning. -
Flood problems all around the island this morning it seems. Fantastic call with the rain warning from the MO.
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Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
ECM has looked fairly interesting for later this week and the weekend for its last few runs. Plenty of heavy showers in coastal areas particular, and it's that time of year where the warm seas can help generate a decent thermal gradient for those to become thundery. I suspect to see many an anvil out over the channel in the coming week. -
Purely speculating here, but I reckon 2022's extensive drought and heatwaves have messed with their rhythm.
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Certainly looks like an interesting week of weather, even if I don't personally agree with it warranting a name. Given a couple of weeks ago, much of October threatened a benign period of nothingness in the models, I'll take it happily.
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Very surprised to see this system named!
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While I do enjoy these dry & sunny days, the sun's lost enough of its power now to be of little use, so bring on the proper autumn deluge shown in the models!
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Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
There are some very late season plume storms showing for Weds night on ECM. One to watch. Last year showed what's still possible in October in that regard! -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Some lovely Accas around today; if I didn't know we were under HP, I'd be hopeful of some late-season action later! -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Just a few scattered showers, dry for many. -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yes, not the first time UKV has failed on the storm front this year. -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Some nice stormy elevated skies moving in here. Glad some of the clag has gone to enable these to be visible -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Looking at the origin of that theta-E plume, today really could've gone bang if it was happening in July or August! Also, it looks to be the last possibly 'interesting' day of weather for a while, before we enter a long benign period -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Little pockets of mid-level instability around this morning as the 'mini-plume' makes its way in. Also notably warm as I left for an office day earlier! -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
ChannelThunder replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thursday night's low seems to be a forecaster's nightmare. GFS has it crossing Wales & then northern England, whereas ECM has it over northern France. UKMO would seem to be the realistic middle ground option. -
Just a stiff breeze and perhaps one or two showers down here then. Hopefully Thursday night's low can provide some interest.
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The changing daylight hours thread
ChannelThunder replied to Boydie's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Exactly! The only thing that keeps me ticking over, weather-wise, is if we get a proper wet and stormy October, or perhaps a little Indian summer. Last year's plume-style thunderstorms did add some massive interest to the month too, but you can't count on that happening again for good few years!