NApplewhite

Very poor weather over the next 10 days across the UK as Low Pressures and the Atlantic dominate. Well below average temperatures this week and next week in North Wales with plenty of overcast skies and intermittent rain. Almost zero sunshine this week. Some hope at +384 hours for a weak ridge.

This is not an outlier its fact!

GEM is slightly better - but we still end up with a trough next weekend.

We have been trying to get an Azores / Scandi High link up for several months - it never happens! As Tamara says the Pacific ridge is influencing the jet stream downstream - heatwave in Mid West USA causing the jetstream to power out of Canada then the deep dive south in the Atlantic so we always remain to the South of the jet. Look at the low temperatures over the UK / France for the next 16 days.

GFS 12 Z is a horror show for summer lovers look at Monday 6th July 2020 - instead of high pressure we now have low pressure over the UK - weak ridge on Wednesday at 03:00. Even further out in two weeks time another low pressure over NE Scotland/Northern England

Looking a bit better on Thursday this week as a nose of higher pressure (try's to move) in from the Azores never establishes though. NW/SE split. Further attempt on Sunday 5th July 2020 . Tomorrow is a washout across the UK (last image) Jetstream doesn't look great though on the 6th July so a lot of strong high level winds even under the higher pressure. La Nina has a 50% chance of developing over the next few weeks. Causing a US heatwave in the MidWest and cooling across N Europe

Looking slightly better in 14 days time.

When was the last time the Azores high paid a visit?

Its been a while since we have seen the Azores high and not an Atlantic ridge/ Euro/Scandi highs

Slight encouragement on the GEFS at +180 hours

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 cool NW, comfortably warm SE for a couple of weeks. rain fairly general week 1, drier in SE later GFS: LP Sub 28th/Mon 29th over Scotland, decaying with some N-ly air entrained. New large LP in Atlantic Sat 4th moving off to Faeroes Sat 11th and filling, some warm air entrained at first esp in SE but later cooler stuff coming down the back edge. W-ly zonal stuff at end of run. GEFS: In the S becoming cool and dry until Mon 29th; then average and damp until Sat 4th after which a lot of scatter, mean close to norm but o and control going in opposite direction and one outlier 13C above norm! Fairly dry for this period. Scotland a bit below average temp to the 4th then like the S, bits and pieces of rain throughout. ECM: Much less active Atlantic from Sat 4th, in fact major new area of HP on Mon 6th covering UK and with warm air to boot. FAX keeps LP more active over UK for several days with secondaries still forming on Tue 30th Not a lot of agreement this morning.

Torrential rain in Wrexham at turning much colder at 09.05 on 26/06/2020

Its a 3 fine days and a thunderstorm for North West England and Wales! Typical! its been a very strange June! back to the cold weather next week for us northern folk!

Dreadful charts at end of next week ! Then a sign of the Azores high nosing in by the 6th July . Then low pressure returns by the 8th/9th ECMWF showing washout next wednesday 1st July

Monthly shows overall high pressure dominating July

Looking average going into July - slightly drier than normal Pressure to the SW - not good and low pressure over Eastern Europe and Scandi - not good for high temps with a NW wind from the Mid-Atlantic! No signs of any heatwaves in July.

Very unsettled with deep areas of low pressure over the UK towards the end of June ! Plenty more rain on the way

CFS Model for next week:

I Can't see the Azores high making it or a Spanish plume this summer.

As usual the warm humid weather fails to materialise! we have had nine days of Cold weather in Wales and i can't cope with another 14 days of terrible summer weather. Time to book a holiday to the Greek islands in July for two weeks of sun - oh no i just realised i can't escape the UK! How can I get my sunshine fix this summer? I hate the UK summers! Today (June 10th 2020) A cloudy and murky start, but mostly dry, before showers move in eastwards from the coast through the morning, reaching easternmost regions in the afternoon. Showers will begin to turn heavier along the west coast through the afternoon. Maximum temperature 16 °C.

We need the Azores High! What are the meterological reasons why the Low pressure isnt tracking west! Come on Azores High the UK needs you!

Day 10 = FL!

Heavy rain between now and Saturday afternoon. Look at these GFS PPN charts - 35mm of rain over my area...Wrexham

Looking good for summery weather next Tuesday but then low pressure off Spain depends and heads north to Western Ireland.

Here comes the low pressure