Cloud 10

Pie in the sky at this range,but a very snowy day 8 chart from the ECM this evening with those 2 small LP's wrapped up in established cold air.

Yes,it certainly had a severe case of over amplication-itis for yesterday's "Northerly",and stuck with it for a good few runs as well. 144 hrs predicted.. actual.. At least it has some support this time around from the GFS,and you can generally count on the ECM to provide some extra amplification when needed!

The GFS 06z would provide 2 real pastings of snow within the next week if it verified,thanks to small southerly tracking lows that some have mentioned,the first of which affects parts of Scotland on Friday... ....and the second one the day after for parts of Northern England and Wales.... Way to far out for any specifics,but there is the potential for heavy snowfall over parts of the UK within the next week or so,and that's not counting Sunday night/Monday morning which could spring some surprises.

I think we are a bit thin on the ground with members in the far far far north of England. Does look like a frontal system will push down through the region during sunday night/monday morning though,so a decent chance of some folk to see their first snowfall.

Looks to be a similar theme to recent runs with a cool/cold NW flow with the odd milder day thrown in,so pretty much a "steady away"start to winter.

Another decent frost already here this evening,so a nice seasonal start to winter.

The low for the middle of next week looks pretty menacing,but at this stage is unlikely to give anything severe for our region,although still gusting to about 50 mph and will be a cold wind as well.

Hugely positive temperature anomalies at day 7 over Canada on the 12z ECM,with H500 along side......

900mb... The 18z op run looks fairly benign compared to that..

Its the same story at 850 Hpa over that region,hence our downstream fairly potent blasts of PM air look set to continue.

Latest fax charts for Sunday and Monday look wintry with the 528 dam line clearing the UK with troughs embedded in a cold unstable northwesterly.

We don't have the parallel pub run for a few days,but the normal 18z is a touch more amplified and showing a pretty chilly end to the weekend.

A long way out to pin any detail down,but certainly some midweek mayhem if the ECM day 6/7 charts were to verify,which looks like an "everything but the kitchen sink" type scenario. The ECM 00z ens. continues with its below average theme right through its run with only short milder blips along the way.

Already -3C up at Shap,and many places across the North of England now below freezing,so lots of windscreen scraping going on first thing in the morning So good to finally get rid of that claggy drizzly weather.

Yes,that wind should fall light in the early hours,frosty here now on grass and cars.

Huge LP from the ECM at 168 hrs,could this be a game changer,or has it just gone off one one? Looking at that chart from the closer UK view reveals a nasty looking secondary LP approaching Ireland.

Looks like a proper frost tonight with temps already down to near freezing.

Is this the new parallel version of Summer Sun?

A few posters mentioning a possible storm event in about the 7 day time frame,and this has been picked up by the 12z UKMO. Very rare for the ukmo to have such a deep low on its 144 hrs chart so certainly one to keep an eye on. Meanwhile the GEM completely obliterates the Polar Vortex on its 12z run.

Actually looks quite exciting when looking at the anomalies.

The new 96 hr fax chart could provide some interest for Western areas as that 2nd cold front spreads down in the evening. Also today is the last day of those positive 850 temps for the UK,with the rest of the ECM ensemble run showing negative anomalies right out to 240 hrs. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=100&map=0&type=1&archive=0

The UKMO really sticking to its guns regarding the Northerly for the end of the week,and seems to have bonded with the NAVGEM. UKMO 96 hrs.. NAVGEM 96 hrs.. Not exactly winter armageddon on the way,but could give an enhanced risk of wintry precipitation for some areas which will make for some tricky forecasting for the pro's. Just to add some support from NASA.

The 12z UKMO at 120 hrs still going for the short Northerly at the end of the week with -4 uppers covering most of the country which hasn't happened for quite a while.

Can still get the pre-96 hr charts from Meteocentre. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=eur&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=000

Just going back to this from yesterday and its clear to see the GFS new direction of travel when comparing yesterday's 7 day to this evening's 6 day. yesterday.. today.. The new parallel run seems to have similar "symptoms" to the old GFS.