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Bradley in Kent

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Everything posted by Bradley in Kent

  1. Evening all, Yes the July 2022 UK heatwave was exceptional. It was only topped for me by Cordoba (1hr north of Seville) in July 2017 at 48c. Granted I've no idea on the officiality of the reading where the airport had an official 45c which is still very hot! I'd actually say compared to July 2022 both felt the same, given the dewpoint was higher in the UK. As we know humidity and exertion play a huge role in how hot we feel. Due to hot places like Arabia and SW USA being evening/morning, winter in the Southern Hemisphere and cooler air replacing convected airmass in France, the UK was for about an hour the hottest place on the planet! It's no surprise that it'll be either everyone's top spot or podium position. Just imagine though, in Dubai they can get 50c with 30c dew points, I'd start to cook alive I think...
  2. Echoing many others here, February I'm looking for cold and by April I'm looking for heat. Conversely in August I'm looking for heat and by October I'm looking for cold (plus conditions which help vibrant autumn colours). March and September are my weather breaks. They are somewhat nothing months with little distinction and don't really fit into any season. They're not particularly light or dark either. March doesn't feel like winter or spring and September doesn't feel like summer or autumn. One thing I want anytime is clear skies!
  3. The only data I have to hand is this CET time series grouped by season. All seasons have warmed but winter has sped up the fastest. It only goes to 2012 unfortunately but let's face it that trend has kept face in the last 12 years. Still, the world goes through cycles, some spanning millenia, some every decade (ha, obviously every 24hrs) and we'll still get snow. Because we've lost so much cold and snow its now central Europe seeing rapid loss now the Atlantic invasion has now reached further into the continent.
  4. Hello there, I would say that the 1600 - 1800 period saw a lot of blocking and correspondingly a quieter Atlantic. I can imagine loads of high pressure around the UK or lots of Easterly and Southeasterly winds which as we know bring cold weather in winter and hot weather in the summer. Our climate would've been a lot more continental in that period with less zonality, much more similar to Northeast US. More recent comparisons will be 2022, 2018 and 2010. In the last 200 years, the Atlantic has increased its influence on UK climate especially with Autumn and Winter. I think this trend will continue in decades to come but we will continue to get 2018 BTFE style events which need A LOT of warming to dissappear.
  5. Hello all, I'm going to completely over answer this question! Firstly, from a stat POV, the answer is a straight no. However, a time series graph does not tell the full story. For example you have two winters, Winter A and Winter B. Winter A is overall slightly below average (day highs 3c to 8c with a frost three times a week) but no prolonged cold spells with lasting snow. You can imagine lots of Northwesterlies and cool zonal flow. Winter B is overall above average (day highs 8c - 13c and no frost) but includes two cold spells that delivered deep snow and ice days. You can imagine lots of Southerlies but the two cold spells being Easterly. Winter B would be much more memorable because of the two cold spells, despite being warmer overall. My impression is that we're getting more winters like Winter B, examples being 2012, 2018, 2021 and 2022. I was born in the 90s so my baseline is very low. Many on here will have childhood memories of legendary cold spells in the 60s, 70s and 80s. However its clear in the stats that there was a major step change around 1988 to 1990 where winters have since been mild with the exception of 2008 to 2013. From my perspective, my childhood was snow starved being in the late 90s early 00s. Snow never went over the kerb and it always melted within 24 hours creating a panicked 'quick, let's play before it all melts!'. Here in Kent, I can say in my lifetime there's been a slight increase in deep snow events in the last 20 years which I know is an incredibly short period to assess! Anyway, that's my answer!
  6. Hello there, I'll be breif on this for thread purposes: wouldn't be surprised for Atlantic lows to bolster heights over central Europe leading to a warm southerly like 2019. My call is as good or bad as anyone else's but my main point is that if multiple models indicate a +NAO, its going to happen!
  7. Good morning all, I said this in early December when we fell into +NAO hole how the rest of December was a call off because those patterns are extremely reliable and very, very hard to get out of owing to the self propelling nature of such setups. No two ways about it, we're in for a very unsettled and mild spell which will last for a few weeks. Funny how a +NAO can be nailed on a week away! Anyway, enjoy the cool, dry weather whilst it lasts... as others have mentioned, models won't have picked up small features which are significant on the ground!
  8. Evening all, 18z pushing the cold further south more quickly after this weekend. Also, the low everyone's watching is more squashed and slidey. It's still too early to call but we need these sort of runs (cleaner, colder and more southerly) because the closer we get to T0, the less the frames will fluctuate. Pleased to see it
  9. I might be clutching at straws here: Dew points are below freezing which helps dry out the ground and hence help cool it down further due to evaporation. To get lying snow you need multiple factors to come together. 850s - no problem 2m temps - would normally be knife edge at 0c to 2c but low 850s and 950s would take care of that Dew Points - no problem Differential between 850hpa vs SST - a difference of 20c so no problem there Sun - no problem, its January! Ground temps / setting snow - very uncertain (see above) Air pressure - rising fast and very uncertain, would this reduce the lifted index too much? Wind speed - just about okay, not too strong thankfully but is preventing a decent fall in 2m land temperature. Wind direction - looking like North Down West of Medway along to Surrey are favourite. That's my take on tonight and tomorrow. Good luck all!
  10. Good afternoon all, GFS 06z looking good for NW Kent, -10c uppers and a kink in isobar creating instability. Worth noting winds will be slightly more NE"ly than isobars suggest owing to the anticlockwise 'pushing out' nature of HP circulation. And of course, 2m temps over the sea are around 10c or so which will create some convection for sure, well clear of the 13c difference between surface and 850hpa temp needed. Given today's showers, albeit sleety in nature, I'm confident we'll get the precipitation. Tomorrow, it'll be down to DPs and ground temperatures as well as the overall hit and miss nature of showers! Good luck everyone, hope someone gets the snow they deserve!
  11. I know this isn't a CC thread, but one wonders why models go for nice, clean, 80s style blocking at mid range only for excess energy and shortwaves to scupper it all. A warmer world with more 'energy' has to be the overriding teleconnection here, making it harder for HLB to occur. Still, we've got a cool and dry week coming up and some Eastern areas have had short term upgrades. The UK will probably have a transient slider event next weekend before the Atlantic comes back, hopefully no as wet as December!
  12. As soon as the Atlantic quietens down models really start to struggle and hence FI gets brought much further forward. We've got a sunny high coming in with some possible snow showers for Eastern areas. The 18z GFS looks more positive up to day 5, which I feel we ought to take in the meantime. Get the heights in, then on to the next step. I don't think I'll have the headspace to chase all the way to week after next!
  13. Evening all, at least we're getting a UK high in which will allow things to dry out and cool down. It's good that there are cold options modelled, but there's a long way to go to next weekend. It's best to get the heights in first then watch where they go afterwards. There's nothing to say that unexpected energy wont loop over the Northern flank of the High, forcing it to link with Med heights only to topple and sink southwards again where we all end up at square one. Getting a cool spell nowadays let alone cold requires a number of building blocks. We're only just putting the first row on now!
  14. Completely agree with this, we need the heights to push north quickly and cleanly where these features tend to slow things up which result in heights sinking back to the Med and allowing lows to march through again. Too many times have modelled cold spells been shelved because disturbances disrupted the northward migration of heights. At least the disturbance has been modelled, it's a fair warning to coldies that we are a very long way off and we can easily see a continuation of the last 3 weeks. All the best
  15. Once the pattern falls into a Euro high / Iberian high with low heights to the north, it takes weeks to get out of the pattern. The rest of December is now a call-off for anything cold so now it's on to January for something interesting (for coldies anyway) Some may be thinking 'how can you type this when cold charts are uncertain at 5 days?'. Models are virtually always right when picking up an Atlantic regime, any time of year but especially in early winter simply because mechanics favour such setup, especially nowadays.
  16. Autumn has felt very short this year what with a hot September, warm first half of October and chilly end. A bit on the wet side late October and early November but not an awful season. As always, there were some very atmospheric mornings!
  17. Ah, heights, 850s, SSTs, wedges, DPs, marginal, getting the cold in, upgrades, Channel Runners, the M4, MJO, snow depth charts that'll never verify... Tell you what though, I love it! ❄❄❄
  18. Good morning all, first time posting on here for a while. I'm going to type this which someone normally does by now: get the cold in first, snow will often follow!
  19. January 2010 (alternating between cold, snowy and less cold foggy conditions) February 2012 (a cold first half before a burst of warmth in final third) March 2012 (mixed conditions to start before turning warm and sunny second half) April 2020 (warm and sunny with one or two interruptions) May 2018 (mostly warm throughout with a humd thundery spell in final third) June 2023 (consistently warm, some thunderstorms) July 2022 (hot and sunny with a 40c day) August 2022 (continued hot and sunny weather) September 2023 (hot start transitioning to wetter conditions) October 2016 (cool and quiet) November 2005 (frosty with cold snap at the end) December 2010 (needs no explanation!) A very continental year with occasional wetter spells for farming and ecosystem purposes.
  20. Although from a selfish, IMBY POV, I'm cautious of North American cold anomalies as it they seem to spell doom for weather in Northwestern Europe by revving up the Jetstream. Always feel better when the cold anomalies and subsequent snow/ice occur over the Russian side. Again though, purely a selfish perspective!
  21. Wow just a week ago there was barely any snow around especially in North America where some Arctic coasts were still snow free around northern Canada. Things can change quick!
  22. I suppose with 1981 - 2010 vs. 1991 - 2020 you're looking at how the 1980s compared to the 2010s and how those decades skew the average both datasets sharing the 1990s and 2000s I wasn't alive but looking at graphs it appears the 80s had some proper summers and a fair scattering of cold winters as well. (On paper 1980s looks like the best decade if extremes and a more continental vibe are your thing) Looking at 2011 to 2020, it was the near opposite being very 'Atlantic' in comparison with some very mild winters and drab high summers. If this year does end up being a 12 monther, it wouldn't surprise me as temperature records just keep falling. Before December 2022, the previous below average month was 19 months before in May 2021. So we've gone for over a period of 12 months already, just a matter of time before it tallys with a calendar year.
  23. Absolutely agree with how one can't predict the weather months ahead. What I will say though is that, just like short to mid-term forecasts, a warm outlook weighs more than cold outlook based on the most recent update. I'm basing this on warmth equaling energy and cold being the lack of energy. A lack of energy will always be beaten by energy in itself. Perhaps a similar analogy is light beating darkness which is why there's more daylight and twilight on Earth than true night. Not going to write off this winter, simply acknowledging that crisp days, frost and snow will be extra special as such conditions will really be against the background signals, that being El Nino & +IOD duo, strong PV and higher SSTs not to mention the 'warm September/October' omen!
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