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Bradley in Kent

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Everything posted by Bradley in Kent

  1. Trend is your friend, although because cold weather goes against the tide I would put more bets on the 3 mildest runs vs the three coldest runs. As others have said, if just a few models / runs predict Atlantic dross, they're 9 times out of 10 correct in the end.
  2. Good morning, a nice set of charts for Christmas although as we know it's still some way off yet (despite the amount of people with their decorations up already!) I'm hoping the big day itself will bring some sun which to be fair it normally does 🙂 Even in the worst of winters like 2006/07, 2013/14 or last year for example it was still cooler and sunnier. Most likely between low pressure systems. A lot of people are excited about the current outlook, which is of course way better synoptically compared to last years super PV, raging Atlantic setup. Fingers crossed that things k
  3. Correction: Astronmical Autumn started off colder than average. Meteorological Autumn started off with a hot spell early September
  4. Good morning, Yes I'm probably in a similar camp where I posted a while ago how winters are becoming the UKs 'worst' season for seasonal weather. Summers are becoming the season to look out for seasonal weather! (especially in the South and East) With regards to Autumn 2020: boring... No real change of weather from end of September as it started off colder than average transitioning to warmer than average as the season went on. Very dull too although today the sun is out!
  5. This is much better than say a month ago and indeed this time last year although the bar has been set very low (if this was 2011 there would be disappointment from the coldies!) Still, the uncertainty in the models is a sign of a more slack Atlantic with more ebbing and flowing. More ebbing and flowing of course means less Westerly winds!
  6. BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico??? I'm almost certain that wouldn't have had any impact, however what I don't know is whether high pressure to the North is caused by less Atlantic activity or if its the other way round? If the PV was normal and no SSW occurred then WOW! I'd love to know what to look out for!
  7. Love reading and listening to people's memories of December 2010! As others have mentioned this month was during a wider period of more blocked synoptics really running from late 2008 to mid 2013. I was 16 at the time, and easily recall being up at 6am super excited to ski and sledge. We didn't have that many days off school, but break times and after school were a right laugh! Where I'm a tad sad that we'll never see a December like that again, I'm grateful that I've experienced how cold a December can get at what was a good age to enjoy it! Oh yeah and second white Chr
  8. I Don't remember that episode in December 2011 at all but the forecast video shows why! Definitely would prefer cold and snowy weather in the early stages of winter. The weaker sun doesn't melt frost / snow compared to February and the short days feel brighter with a covering of snow. Give me December 2010, January 2010 and February 2019 🙂 I do say this with a well insulated house mind.
  9. Yes Autumn 2020 started off well but has turned into a very drab one with the exception of last week. Even the foliage hasn't been very vibrant although most of us knew it wouldn't be great given the dry spring, topsy turvy summer and cyclonic conditions in October! If you had to ask me what is my 'least favourite' time of year it would be late November early December. Mainly because the colours have gone, as dark as January and not yet into cold season. Oh yeah and premature Christmas themed media, love Christmas but not in the mood for jingle bells on the 17th November! Enjoy
  10. Thank you @damianslaw that's very useful and informative (and gives some hope for winter!)
  11. Yes I do like the look of that chart; not a big cold spell deliverer but some chilly weather and clean air good for sunsets! My experience of looking at these charts is limited, but would I be right to doubt this one? To me it seems that the high pressure in the North Pacific would allow very cold air to topple into Canada then move out into the West Atlantic which as we know livens up the Jetstream. To me it seems that High Pressure in the Northwest Atlantic wouldn't survive or hold out in such dynamis. As I say though, I might just be reading this wrong!
  12. This has got to be the most boring forecast I've ever seen in my life! Still, at least it won't be a total washout!
  13. I'll try not to sound overly negative: It seems winters in the UK are becoming the 'worst' season for those who like proper seasonal weather. I've come to the conclusion that in a warming world it's better to look out for heat in the summer as this is getting better and more reliable. (Okay that is coming from someone in SE England!) The best summers will be bettered, but the best winters will never be bettered. Cold (even dry or cool) is something which, yes we WILL see again, is ultimately on it's way out long term. Personally I can't see this winter delivering, if anythi
  14. Mmm I hope that PV animation doesn't come entirely true. At the end of the run it looks like the vortex is migrating to Eastern Canada, and we all know what happens after that! Must say I do like seeing models animated! Really helps illustrate the ebs and flows of our weather.
  15. I thought that too. Perhaps it's the fact that Greenland is a more stable area and generally isn't on the receiving end of the Atlantic Jet - probably easier for models to grasp since there are less variables / influencers. I remember in January 2016 after that record breaking December models predicting a Scandi high with some what would have been welcome cold weather. Then at the last moment a hurricane decided to make an appearance and ousted the high right into Russia. And that was it for the rest of that winter 😞
  16. Good afternoon all on this very autumnal Sunday! Some really useful and informative posts on here; can't really add anything more technical to be honest! I'm rather hoping the Atlantic will get bored of throwing low pressures and Westerlies towards the start of winter. You can play now but your bedtime in end of November! The reason why last year was a frustrating winter was that the Atlantic was dominant in November but didn't really let up until March. I can deal with wet and mild spells so long as they are only 'spells' and not an entire season...
  17. Been lucky enough to go to Lapland in January and locals said to me that 40 years ago snow was thinner but lasted a lot longer. Nowadays apparently the snow arrives with a bang and goes out with a bang. Also, they said the snow is much wetter now from picking up more moisture from a warmer ocean. I like reading data but there's nothing like locals backing it up!
  18. I think it really comes down to personal circumstance and schedule hence emphasis on the word 'I' here... If we stayed BST year round, I wouldn't be too happy as in winter I wouldn't see any light at all in the morning and still not see any going home; at least now I see the sunrise on the way to work in December. Equally however I wouldn't be too happy if we stayed GMT year round as in summer our evenings wouldn't be as long and birds will start singing at 2:30 in the morning (plus at 3:30 sunrise is a massive waste of daylight) Basically, I don't want it to change! Yes we hav
  19. Good afternoon, Yes absolutely of course not helped by some very gloomy weather! I feel that the sudden change is probably due to the fact that although the sun is up less than 12 hours after 23rd September, it's not really until a month later where actual night is longer than 12 hours once you take dawn and dusk into account. For me summer is truly over when night starts eating into your day both start and end. I'm really am hoping for some bright weather in November onwards as crisp weather always make the short days much more palatable.
  20. That's all we (okay I...) want; high pressure somewhere to the North of the UK. Northwest or Northeast preferably both. What we don't want are cold plunges in Eastern Canada as this seems to rev the Atlantic up into positive oscillation and then gets stuck into delivering the UK Westerly after Westerly for weeks on end. High pressure should in theory stop the Atlantic from getting too lively and stop those storm inducing cold plunges in the West Atlantic as that area would see more Southerlies.
  21. Haha believe it or not the Earth is closest to the Sun in January and farthest away in July due to our irregular orbit. This cycle reverses roughly every 20,000 years which is why we have ice ages although I think humans have already prevented the one we should be going into now! Unfortunately the most you can do during the Northern hemisphere winter is either migrate to better climes or live on a sheltered South facing hillside in a greenhouse!
  22. And the days begin to draw out end of February going into March. 10C, still, sunny with sunset at 6.30pm? Yes please. 10C, windy, raining with sunset at 3.45pm? No thank you...
  23. Agreed, I'd say late September / early October has the narrowest percentile range in temperatures on average with daily highs rarely going above 18 or below 12. A similar analogy is when you warm up a pan of iced water, with the hob being the sun and water being the Northern hemisphere. As you heat it up in Spring, some parts get hot but not all as you stir the water, explaining the swings we tend to get in April and May. After the solstice you begin to turn the heat down but the water continues to heat a bit more peaking in late July, by now all the cold patches are gone.
  24. And there's that question on whether being cold actually gives you a cold and whether heating (not turned on yet) also gives you a cold. A quick internet search gives no useful answers and anything I've heard has only been anecdotal. Of course these topics have always floated about, but I think this year we'll be taking much more notice!
  25. It will be interesting (for want of a better word) to see if a change of seasons does have any affect spread of Covid19. I must admit I've never known how or if winter weather affects virus spread; you'd think cold weather kills germs off but we spend a lot of time indoors anyway during autumn and winter, mild or cold.
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