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SunnyDazee

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    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

    Quite an area for disagreement, usually when they state Northern and Central areas, its a reference to Scotland and the central swathe of the UK, (ie) Northern England, and to say Central, Southern parts would include larger parts of the Midlands, Southwards! I suppose you could put the North Midlands on the boundary to the more central section of the uk. Just looking at the GFS 6z out to day 8, still looking pretty ridgey, temps nothing special, probaly around average, so a rather uncertain start to May. Perhaps it will be the mid or final 3rd before we see an upturn in the more settled and warmer conditions. 

    gfs-0-186.png

    gfs-1-186.png

    Thanks for that mate, as for the weather I agree, MO 3 month outlook had it 50% hottest category for the next 3 months but it’s weird considering there’s currently no signs of it. Early to Mid May will be below average, wondering if late May will rescue it as it usually does. Late May has been a pre summer for the last few years hopefully comes up trumps again 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SunnyDazee

    4 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

    Alot being spoke of the upcoming Nthly, it's still very much a blink and miss it event. It certainly packs a punch in Scotland for a while, before pressure rises and temps gradually lift into the bank holiday.... Not bad overall!!! The south shouldn't be to troubled by this Northerly, but Scotland may suffer for a short while. 

    ECM1-96.gif

    UW120-21.gif

    gfs-0-96.png

    gfs-1-120.png

    3843583F-AFF3-4E24-8600-46B08F7A510C.thumb.gif.874639288d74cc852342ae838631a243.gifmeanwhile its a bit nippy up  North!! 

    I always wonder whether I’m classed as up north when weather forecasters talk about it. Do you think they mean up north as in Cumbria and Northumberland or the entirity to the midlands

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

    gfs is still keen on a cold northerly BH weekend following on with an Atlantic onslaught of low pressure that comes and sits over UK for days on end.

    Massive shift in the models in the last few days I agree. Still a few producing nice weather, but it’s southern plume vs northernly in the majority of them. I’m not gonna predict the weather anymore, because I’m starting to feel like we’ve got every chance of it being cool. I still don’t think it will be a cool May, I think it’ll be above average but the weather models are turning in that direction. Early to Mid May at least looking very changeable

    Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, markyo said:

    Hope its not been to bad joking aside,i know what flooding can be like.

    Not horrendously bad, a few burst water pipes and I’m guessing farmers won’t be too happy because the rain was bouncing it down and so might just run off and actually damage the plants they already had. I think we’ll have average maybe even higher than average rainfall for the month here after the start and end of the month

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    I think things are looking up sunny, the guys posts above look very encouraging.... Don't ask me though... My last post took to much out of me, I'm spent now!! Seriously though, things looking so much better than the last few days... Bank Holiday could be warm and settled... The jet stream is going off on one again, its a meandering wreck...

    If a meandering wreck means that I don’t have to have the heating constantly on I’m all for it lol. That’s good news anyway I’ll give it a check now. Honestly this is the worst weather we’ve had since the snow in late January. Worse than most of December and January in terms of just how bitter it is too. Crazy to think it’s May next week you’d think it’s November with the rain and February with the temperatures! Seen some good signs on the Beijing Climate Centre output, looking roasting across June, July and August. Possibly 2 degrees above average. Back to current times though I’m expecting change for the better as things can only get better (Sorry D:Ream!) after today I’m sure of it

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Hammered it down here the last couple of days Pete, sun has barely come out, and me tan is on the wane there is a chance of winds from the North later next week with wintry showers to Scotland, but I would hope a fair amount of dry conditions further South... Beyond that, perhaps warming up, I seem to have forgot, its still late April!

    Also can confirm it hammered it down here too. Sick of the rain already I can just about put up with it in December and January but not now. I think in Wigan we’ll have a close to average month for rainfall. Hammered it down at the start and ends of the month. 

    • Like 3

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    49 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Tuesday 30 Apr - Thursday 9 May

    Tuesday looks like being dry and bright for most, with temperatures a little above average, though there is a risk of rain in Northern Ireland. A pattern of generally dry weather looks likely to continue for the first few days of May and into the bank holiday weekend. Day time temperatures may well become relatively warm and springlike, though less warm than we had last week. Reduced cloud amounts at night mean that night time temperatures may be fairly cold, with some fog patches, and even some late frost in susceptible parts of the north. The dry situation with light winds is uncertain though and there remains a chance of spells of wet, windy and cooler weather at times, especially in the north and west.

    Friday 10 May - Friday 24 May

    There are indications that fine and dry weather will dominate in this period, with temperatures perhaps above the seasonal average. The highest temperatures are most likely in the south and southeast. This dry scenario with light winds is far from certain though and there are likely to be spells of wet, windy and cooler weather at times, particularly in the north and west.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

    I live in the North West. It’s always us getting the bad weather lol, us or the north east

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

    The latest (00Z) temperature ensemble shows a warm-up come early May; but, the op shifting to the warm end of the pack exaggerates the visual effect:

    image.thumb.png.3ca23af77f14f4491db4b65b0477059c.pngimage.thumb.png.a497c3a4effaed7cdb2c823c510b3d51.png   

    And the improving temps coincide nicely with an anticipated rise in SLP, for the SE.

     

    The orange line on the sea level pressure ensemble though. Let’s not be hoping for that I’ve put my winter coat away now

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SunnyDazee

    11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    This is (perhaps) the point where something will have to give?

    image.thumb.png.e9de552b905db9eaba323655b3ad6b96.pngimage.thumb.png.c81d0c1a567660f97ae06f0c5af7b1fe.png 

    That exactly. This is why our models are so confusing at the moment. Very very mixed signals. Personally I think we’ll end up on the warmer side just due to trends, but I’d say it’s 55/45. Looks like we will only know going into the beginning of next week

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Frosty. said:

    I may be wrong but to me the ukmo 12h doesn't settle down properly once storm hannah blows through..it does improve but despite increased ridging there are some shallow trough / weaknesses which drift around with a continued risk of showers with some days drier and brighter than others.

    UW96-21.gif

    UW120-21.gif

    UW144-21.gif

    The big issue is where that area of low pressure where the U.K. is ends up, a lot of models have it in France and NE Europe, some have it over the U.K. like this. That will decide whether we get warmer and dryer or cooler and wetter

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    GFS is still looking to settle things down a tad, next week:

    image.thumb.png.c8659f135819976eb907655733cb0317.pngimage.thumb.png.afd32cb9fe0a3603025668103f1b21de.png 

    There’s some very conflicting weather going into May Day BH. Most predictions had it as a washout last week, it looks though it being a complete washout might not be true, but some models had it warmer than average and dryer, some have it slightly wetter and cooler. Could really go either way to be honest, just looks as though the really wet weekend will not happen now

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

    The whole N Hemisphere looks like one huge HP fest. June looks like the best month for warmth although HP sitting just off the South West of UK isn't the best position if you want a heat wave.

    I’m not too fussed about the heat wave part. Dry and very warm will do me. If we have a summer 25 degrees day in day out I’d be very happy, but they look much drier than average on the precipitation scales. I do think eventually the high pressure will drag in south eastern winds, as July is starting to show though and if that happens, it’s gonna get really hot. The majority of these models are now suggesting this spell of changeable weather going into early/mid May will be the last spell of unsettled weather for a while now. I’m not banking on it just yet but the signs are pointing that way. I think we’ll get a heat wave too if these models are to be believed as I don’t think the high pressure will constantly sit south west, but there’s a lot of time between now and then. June does look warm but July has the wind directions, although the data is more scarce. Doesn’t look like the cool weather predicted by some after the winter is gonna be anywhere near close

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Mandrake said:

    Despite the weather radar and predictions it has been bone dry today in the South with plenty of sunny spells although windy and only 1.8mm precipitation yesterday. Been out on the downs today and looking North over London I can see some small showers falling from isolated clouds. This is far from the heavy rainfall predicted.

    Welcome mate! Not seen you before. I agree, we were predicted thunderstorms in Wigan today. It hasn’t rained at all never mind a thunderstorm. Friday and Saturday look like a write off though

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