MATTWOLVES 3

Yes mate, tbh the 46 as been pretty close with its Summer predictions so far, and I've been impressed.. Those NOAA charts as well as the clusters that MWB posts are all preety dam good if you ask me.. I have access to all the products from EC46 but unfortunately its behind a pay wall and I would probably get in trouble if I posted it. But I'm most definitely gonna be keeping up the subscription throughout this coming Winter, and hopefully it will.perform well again and not do a 2018 repeat.. Mind you I think most of the LRF made a balls up that year. Also it's a petty Tamara doesn't post through Winter, would be gr8 to know what all the background signals were doing for that time of the year... Here's hoping for some more joy this Summer, and then something that interests us come Winter. Oh and I think it's good that Matt Hugo doesn't mind you sharing providing you flag him up for it and give it a mention.. Cheers Matt.. Have a good evening Si, and all of you on Netweather..

I mentioned this in my EC updates earlier.. I beat you to it Matt Hugo.. Only joking mate your a top bloke ..

Love it si...problem is that's the 0z ensemble graph.. Here you go mate...

Even the mean is bringing a baking day for Friday.. Beyond that its more changeable, but again hints towards the end of the run of things settling down again, especially for more Southern parts of the UK... enjoy the next few days..

OK... That's just an op run... Is it being backed up by the mean... Yes I think it is.. EC weeklies may be on to something regarding a better spell towards this stage.. Baby steps... But perhaps rising AAM could becoming to our rescue for the late Summer period..

This is why the Brits are known to be fascinated with the great British weather.. They simply love to moan about it! Its to Hot or its to cold but rarely is anybody satisfied with it mate. Just having a laugh to me self.. For most of my life I've been into the weather, for most of my life I worked outdoors in the Building trade. And the amount of folk who would turn round to me on a Hot day and say... I'm sick of this weather now, its driving me mad.. Then a few days later when it had broke down... It would be this weather is driving me crazy now.. It should be better than this at this time of the year! You can't win...

You keep on saying the Atlantic is to active, but it had been fairly mundane through the last couple of Winters.. And in Summer 2018 it was literally dead! And please don't give in hope folks for August.. The current EC46 is pretty promising for some good weather next month also hints of this from Exeter. Regarding this plume I'm expecting 30C on Friday here in the Midlands with perhaps unbroken Sunshine.. So i would say that's a plume, regardless of how shortlived it maybe. Regarding the above post.. We had one of the best ever Summers in 2018,and 3 or 4 plume events in an average 2019 Summer.. I can't see how this all adds up to a pathetic climate..

Closer inspection of last night's EC weeklies brings more of settled Conditions out towards mid month and out till the end end of the month.. Especially away from the far North where occasional interference from troughs situated over Iceland are possible.. Overall the Azores High is extending ridges more frequently than we have been accustomed to so far this Summer.. Temps perhaps around or slightly above average, but this doesn't mean warmer spells won't be possible at such a range. All in all its a far more positive run for something better to end our Summer on.

Right then, EC46 updates.. We all know about the plume.. But what comes next! Conditions look quite unsettled into next week and rather cool... Some signs now emerging of High pressure building in towards the end of next week, and this looks like holding through the Weekend and into the following.. Now that would be something... Fine Weekend!! We would be highly honoured.

What next Mike... How about giving a shout out to those who said it would only be a 2 day affair at best, or award points to those who called this plume at the earliest timeframe.. Yes its looking like an hot one.. Arpege brings possibly 33c for some.. Let's just see how this plays out.. Sunshine amounts and wind will be a huge factor to those maxes..

Some temperature charts for the end of the week.. Still looking like 27-31c is possible in favoured locations.. The ECM mean is poor out to day 10 with pressure falling to under 1010mb at times.. I've just checked the extended out to day 14,and its hinting at an improvement, with pressure rising closer to 1020mb come the end.. Hopefully this could signal a change of fortune towards mid month.. These 2 or 3 fine days don't really cut it for me... So I'm looking towards something more lasting 10 days or so.

It appears the op had a little fit regarding pressure... The mean shows the decline out today 10..1010mb to 1014mb North to South as an average.. Temps not overly bad.

No sugar coating the mean.. We have a brief plume followed by somewhat cooler conditions and more unsettled... Especially further North, where it looks disappointing at times.. I still feel the first part of the new month looks mixed at times, and it's perhaps mid month before anther improving picture emerges.. The EC46 may provide more clues on Monday.. Have a very good evening folks.

Going on current guidance, i would say regarding next weeks warm up we could be looking at 27-30c in the most favoured spots.. This likely for Central/Southern areas... Cooler conditions filter SE later in the weekend, but still rather warm in the SE corner. Interesting enough the GFS 6z goes on to promote another warm up come the 2nd week of August.. A long way off but worth watching all the same.

GFS temperature charts for later next week show the core of the heat through Friday and Saturday, with cooler conditions by Sunday. Some serious Heat in the states I've noticed also.. Approaching 100f over the next couple of days towards New York for instance.. We really have had to endure the crappy end of the stick this Summer.. I hope the roles are reversed come Winter. Edit.. I feel the GFS is again under cooking those temperatures by several degrees.

Regarding tonight's ECM operational, perhaps a little severe with those falling Heights and temperatures.. But the mean does show a gradual decline in pressure later.. So perhaps becoming more mixed towards the latter half of next Weekend.

Not so sure Mike, and I would love to be proven wrong, but at this stage it looks to me like a mixed and changeable first half of August, with perhaps a better spell towards mid month.

Looks like Exeter now mentioned the much warmer conditions by late next week.. It looks to be brief with cooler more unsettled conditions following on later in the weekend.. Pretty much backed up by the ECM ens.. Hopefully something better again towards mid next month.. Hopefully plume 3..

I take it your making reference to those NOAA charts Karl.. I think they're strength is the overall upper air pattern over a couple of weeks.. Perhaps microscale changes that can bring a plume can be missed.. I've noticed even though the EC46 as been pretty solid with its overall trend, the smaller details of a plume event being set up can be missed. There was no hint of a plume on the Thursday evening run for instance... This is where some of our high resolution shorter range models come in very handy.. Because its things that can be missed by the longer range output.. Even Exeter appear to have missed it.. I would say the chance of a significant warm up is now quite high... For how long and how intense is another matter... But alas... Something hopefully to look forward to on a wet miserable Saturday here.. Most of the ens are going warm now, here is a couple that really kick booty.

Certainly a fair few ensembles are bringing a plume type event later next week.. No mention of it from last night's EC46 or today's met update.. But for me the risk is increasing.. The one ensemble bringing +20c uppers to the South. Hopefully ECM builds on this shortly.

Just had a gander at the 7 month EC anomalies Don, and its going for a warmer than average August and September... October November and December perhaps on the cold side, with January being warmer than average.... These update once a month... 2010 repeat anyone..

Definite signs of a little more Azores influence going out towards mid month and the end of next month, especially for more SW/S areas going on the EC weeklies .. Ridges being thrown up a little more consistently at this stage... Its a long way off but hopefully it's onto something, and perhaps we could end our Summer on a little more of a positive note.

Yes mate they can, I won't dispute that. My main point was the 46 as never been on board for any sustained ridging so far this Summer, and in that respect its been close to the mark.. Your correct in saying how it failed in that 2018 Winter, but tbh I think Glosea and other models did also. Perhaps the Spanish model come closest with its idea of the Azores High ruining our Winter. Just looked a little further towards mid month and it seems to be following the met office script of changeable, before some signs of a settling down towards the middle part of the month.. But like you say we can't be sure of these outcomes as they can go quite astray at times. Nothing would please me more than a cracking end to Summer,and while there is time.. There is hope.

The 46 has been rock solid with its predictions of a broad Wstly flow, and the Azores High restricted to the SW all Summer.. And I'm just bringing the latest guidance for the members who don't have access.. But regarding overall consistency, the 46 and those NOAA charts have been streets ahead of the other models.

Hold ya horses there folks.. The EC46 is not really on board with this plume.. Conditions look better around mid week through til Friday.. Warm in the SE.. no great shakes elsewhere, and conditions deteriorate come next Weekend with cooler showery conditions being flagged up. Low Pressure to the NW come next weekend and into the following week are the current call, the flow again is of a largely cool orientation.. Will update further as the run progresses.