BrickFielder

Mixed storm opportunities today with maybe Northern Ireland as a key area. Instability is low with cloud cover tending to limit convection and upper level lapse rates look poorer than forecast yesterday. Mixture of low level wind convergence, upper level dry slot swinging up from the South East around across the Midlands later. Steerage winds are interesting at mid levels going from Kent up to Manchester and then back down to Exeter. Generally the air is moist all the way up and there is plenty of cloud cover, so storm severity is likely to be low unless things diverge from forecast. Embedded storms along the south coast, East Anglia, Pennine convergence, maybe Midlands and Wales where instability highest giving a real mix of places to watch. Wales and Ireland most likely places.

Mid to Upper lapse rates limiting instability as there is slightly warmer air aloft, so instability is a bit meagre (limits storm creation). Interesting that low level winds direction is in direct contrast to the mid to upper steerage flow (Spout risk higher). Temperatures and low level wind convergence likely to be the trigger for convection. Storms over north midlands likely to trundle southwards.

Not really much change in forecast from yesterday for today. Slight disagreement in where convergence zone will be across the Midlands with some models having it further North. Risk of storms for East Scottish borders and Edinburgh. Edinburgh looks like a key area for a storm. Both low convergence and upper trough come into play so there may be more than one train of storms. Complications in the forecast come from a low level low developing off the coast of North Wales. Satellite imagery shows lobes of vorticity associated with it which could spark addition storms across the south and increase instability. The risk is that storms develop in unexpected places and are more severe. Main risks appear to be Edinburgh, Hull to Lincoln, and downstream from Dartmoor. Repeated heavy rainfall as storm trains develop in the South ,lightning for the east, and spouts for the Midlands. Satellite suggests some risk of a curve ball with either enhanced or reduced storm risk. Overall instability looks weak so severe storm risk is low.

Risk of storms tomorrow as trough/occluded front (not exactly sure which) brings some drier cold air aloft. At the same time the approaching Jetstream from the west forces curvature and convergence of low level winds (low level trough moisture advection). This is likely to trigger storms where low level wind convergence occurs. Key areas look like a line from Swansea through to Hull which moves slowly southwards during the afternoon to a line from Cardiff to Lincoln. Biggest instability likely to be in the east. At the same time we have another brown willy effect convergence zone in Cornwall and Devon sparking heavy showers. Forecast SkewTs suggest low cloud bases which combined with low wind veering could produce some very weak spout type tornadoes. Steering winds are light but may bee enough for updraft and downdraft separation and slightly drier air aloft might lead to fewer but slightly stronger storms. Temperatures are still too low for High instability storms and wind sheer is low so overall its a low risk of severe storms.

Tonight the jet stream comes into action with a Rosby wave trough over the UK. Looks like Northern France, the channel and even some parts of the southeast are in for some very gusty winds for this time of year. Since this will be a developing low then there is always an opportunity for convective activity especially near the core of the low. Jetstreak exit dynamics will drive the low and we should expect heavy rain for many parts. Forecast SkewTs show the tropopause being pulled down so cloud tops will be limited and timing means surface based convection only starts once the system is in the South East of England in the early hours. Although the tropopause is pulled down and the front will be back bent it is the wrong time of year for sting jets (low not deep enough either). Main risk gusty winds and localized flooding. Wednesday brings another possible day of storms with low level wind convergence likely to trigger storms. Substantial instability in some places mainly in the central and western areas. Winds are weak so no this will limit storm severity. Moisture all the up so convection might be messy with multiple storms hitting some areas. Highest risk is localized flooding.

Similar story to yesterday with low level wind convergence driving convective activity. Modelling is not that far apart today so bit more confidence in which areas might see storms. One difference is that the air looks moist all the way up which leads to messy convection and weaker instability. Cloudy showery with embedded storms kind of weather with Forecast Skewts showing temperatures and dewpoints not that relevant. Some keys areas today might be Dartmoor and South Devon with areas downstream in the steering flow (North eastwards). Cumbria and Lancashire look like potential storm areas with orographic conditions helping. Scotland and Northern Ireland may get in on the Action. My choice location would be Lincoln up to York late afternoon as across the Wales and Midlands I think it might be more messy.

Low level wind convergence looks key to where storms might initiate today and although there are some general agreements the detail is still different on different models. Comparing 9am wind patterns and forecast wind patterns on the models for 9am then I think I might give a nod to the Netweather SR model. Based on a mix of models my best estimate is that the brown willy effect convergence zone along the Cornwall and Devon spine will be shifted somewhat northwards. More Dunkery Beacon effect across Exmoor than Dartmoor with North coast areas like Boscastle being of concern. Steering winds at mid levels will take this back building convection up into parts of the Midlands. This could result in some areas along the steering route seeing repeated heavy downpours rather than storms with a risk of localized flooding. All models suggest some wind convergence across parts of the Midlands and providing cloud clears then storms may spring up. Surface winds are very light here with slightly cooler air aloft suggesting some significant Cape/instability giving the possibility of High topped storms. Winds look lights so no strong updraft downdraft separation so convection could be pulse like and a bit messy. Surface winds are so low that outflow boundary and rear downdraft wind effects could create a occasional right turning storm. I would favour Stoke to Manchester and Northampton to Leicester areas mid afternoon based on a model blend. As upper level air moves more eastwards then later in the afternoon storm focus moves eastwards to East anglia where Upper level winds are a little more pronounced meaning you might get some updraft and downdraft separation. Places around the wash, cambridge and lincolnshire could catch an isolated more severe storm perhaps even up to hull. The Instability window here is short so it is hard to tell. Slack low pressure systems are notoriously hard for weather forecast models to get right and best guesses are bound to have inaccuracies so it'd better to watch the Netweather radar from this point.

First of there is a chance of storms today in the borders and north east under an upper level area of cooler dry air. Satellite imagery would suggest the window of opportunity for stormed in that area is more limited than forecast due to the increased speed the upper level disturbance is moving away. Not sure I would like to pick out specific areas for storm initiation tomorrow as models for low wind convergence are not fully in agreement. UKV model definitely goes for the convergence zone along the moors and spine of Cornwall and Devon. Which model is correct is tricky to predict and the UKV accuracy would not be a bad punt. Looking at Satellite images then the low pressure to the south west looks like it is Moving faster than modelling predicts which kind of makes both models questionable. If we assume the UKV model is the accurate one then we need to be careful that we don't miss other storm Initiation possibilities. Forecast SkewTs for London a little before midnight and just after sunrise suggest surface storms are possible. Jetstreak aloft, low level convergence, humidity moving in and if I was not skeptical about the modelling then I might be a bit concerned. I would be expecting some warnings for heavy rain tonight at the least. Best guess at the moments that some places will catch a storm over the weekend beyond that I would like to see tomorrow mornings model output before getting into detail.

Whenever July comes around the despondency from the no storms club ramps up and jealousy of certain favoured areas rises. It is always the South coast I hear yet actually sea surface temperature air cooling makes summer storms less likely and autumn storms more likely. I hear that we do not get storms like we used to, yet nobody really does analysis to confirm this. Surprisingly somebody has does some analysis and confirmed that for a limited area of the UK this is true. Detailed records of thunderstorm occurrence are available between 1828 and 1986 for the Radcliffe Observatory in Oxford with reliable private record of thunder frequency from Oxford since 1986 used to extend the record to 2020. These have been compared to other records from the likes of Kew gardens and a pattern of decline in thunderstorms has been detected for Oxford and possibly a 20 year cycle. Reasons suggested include a pattern shift for Spanish plumes, but also less South westerly winds during the summer. It would be easy to say this is anthropological climate change and there is evidence that the latest climate models shift blocking eastwards and higher latitude blocking due to warming. Decadal Atlantic Sea surface pattern changes, returns to Barlett/Azores High dominate weather, magnetic pole shifts affecting gravity waves, changes to ionosphere weather and the Stratopause due to solar dynamo sunspot cycle changes may all play some part. I will let others decide the causes. I guess watching the models and seeing most favourable storms environments invariably disappear will train your eyes to the environments most likely to produce storms. The Oxford storm alley environment comes to mind with South westerly winds and a trough either surface based or High up preferably in a warm sector. Saturday and Sunday are showing elements of that type of environment. Fax charts suggest troughs or occluded fronts. Forecast SkewTs suggest some potent convection given some moderate daytime temperatures. There is the one factor that is out of sync with storm imitation namely during the summer you need temperatures above 25C for a good storm generally and this looks closer to a spring storm setup. Still to far out to look at with any detail but worth a heads up.

Not much chance of storms today looking at the forecast modelling, although there are still some chances for convection to develop. Some models have under forecast dew points by the looks of it and others have made a bit of a mess of the low level wind field. Good chance of a low level wind convergence zone may be along the M4 corridor perhaps moving north a bit late afternoon. Adjusting GFS Forecast SkewT's a little bit gives some low topped convection (not really storm height clouds), but I do like the steep temperature gradient through the low levels. Winds look light and with little veer with height so indication of strong convection here yet low level wind convergence will play a part. It would not take much deviation from modelling to give an isolated storm today. Maybe towards Norwich and London or Oxford late afternoon worth a watch on the radar, but much lower confidence than yesterday.

Chance of a weak storm late afternoon today many in the South East but also across Midlands and Wales. Modelling is a bit mixed as to where and any storms are likely to be more spring like with temperatures below 20C. Forecast SkewTs show marginally convective environment in the South East also glow level convergence zone and not really a convective environment in the Midlands and Wales. Some cloud cover and temperature forecasts are clearly wrong on some models showing peak temperatures below current readings equally the development of the low across Central parts is different on different models. BBC and MetOffice charts suggest Low topped storm development in the low pressure tail over north midlands. Key areas to watch are London and perhaps Birmingham to Manchester area. Not really expecting much more than weaker storms with low temperatures. Things complicated by global models which tend to hold maritime island (UK) temperatures too low during peak summer and the usual East West movement speed being wrong. When a low pressure is forecast to become enhanced over the UK then forecast modelling tends to struggle so worth a radar watch with a risk of a weak spout like tornado but there is every chance nothing will appear either as its not a strong convective environment. Cloud cover ,heat island effects , low tropopause, surface convergence all likely to play a part, worth a heads up though.

Still very tricky to forecast and UK could miss out on storms completely. Not much change in the general scenario except perhaps a slight steepening of the angle of the cold front with a change of steering winds likely to push the plume towards the UK. Developments over France today are key with storms over northern France late evening being key as to whether the UK sees storms. Different models show slightly different areas for rainfall but generally speaking the best moisture looks to be south east of the Isle of Wight to East Anglia. Forecast SkewT for London at midnight still shows a little surface Cape which considering surface convergence winds is a surprise. Not sure if the temperatures will really be over 20C in London at that time. Unfortunately soundings from the continent are a little thin on the ground which would help to determine what happens in France and satellite Images show a vorticity band across Spain which is stronger than I expected. This may not be modelled that well and could alter things. Potentially bringing a second timeframe for storm risks in the early hours (6am) Thursday. My recommendation is to watch the radar and satellite images from this point rather than rely on the modelling.

It is still not exactly clear what will happen with regards to Storms, but it is starting to look like two different storm potentials. One around 9pm to Midnight Wednesday for the very far south east and perhaps early hours of Thursday for the south, midlands running up to parts of the north west. Neither scenario looks like being surface based so more electrical than wet. There may be a point across the midlands around 8am where storms change to surface based at the leading edge of storms. Forecast SkewT's show very little convective energy so have to assume storms build from upper cooling and vorticity. The wind field does look interesting but probably cannot be utilized not that I am placing much faith n the forecast skewT at the moment. Still to far out for suggest exactly where and when storms will occur , but I am not ruling out anywhere south of the front, nor that parts of the north get notable storms.

At First glance this looks like your typical Spanish plume scenario. What we tend to see from these is that as we get closer, the forecasting takes the storms eastwards often with the result that you get a Kent clipper. These give a splendid light show out to sea for the South East. There are plumes that destabilize over the UK during the daytime with elevated storms which late on give a lightning show but very little rain as it evaporates before reaching the ground. Occasionally you will get storms over the continent which are surface based and drift North over the UK overnight which gives a nighttime show and plenty of rain. So Spanish plume scenarios generally mean elevated storms, lightning but not always heavy rain. French imports generally loose strength when crossing the channel. These plumes involve very hot moist air from Spain being lifted up as they cross the northern mountains of Spain. Cooling as air moves north or due to night time temperatures will cause the moisture to create clouds. There are a couple of things that suggest that this may not conform exactly to a standard plume event. GDAS blocking forecasts suggest that the tendency for high pressure over the UK will move towards north east Scandinavia. This might mean models are over doing the modelling of high pressure strength towards the Azores and the plume might head towards the UK. Then we have a heat low over northern Spain driving some Jetstreaks from the Spanish cut of low northwards as the cut off low engages again with the Jetstream. It is slightly unusual for the low level air underneath the plume to be coming from the north Atlantic when it begins to destabilize. This air can be more moist than continental air and means that surface storms are more likely to develop over France. This can also mean that an MCS will develop over the Bay of Biscay. Depending on the timing the leading edge of such an MCS can give rise to some localized conditions which could lead to a weak tornado. Typically this type of MCS gives very heavy rain with not much lightning. Unfortunately we are too far out and the models are going to chop and change a lot so guessing the scenario we get is very tricky at this range. There are also more chances of storms for the following days as well and judging by the Jetstream forecast these might be equally worth monitoring.

Still unsure about tomorrows storm potential with the general indicators suggesting only mild convection generally moving into the south west from mid morning and moving northwards. The upper level jet streak exit should give some wind divergence aloft suggesting a tendency for upward air motion and over shooting tops. Forecast Skewts highlight all the model risks with storm forecasts with shallow surface moisture over egging convection on some models, moist mid levels giving messy convection etc. Looking at the Cardiff forecast SkewT I see messy convection with a weak storm mixed in, whilst for the midlands I see more discreet convection but clouds never reaching storm heights. Different models have different ideas about the parameters with different convection modelling and forecasters are unlikely to say anything more than there is a vague potential until models are better aligned (perhaps tomorrow). My best guess is the Met Office model will handle this particular situation best. The problem is that with a few minor differences a similar scenario in the past threw up some unexpected quite severe storms. That scenario gave weakly cyclonic pulse storms which back built and developed localized wind fields. My best guess at the moment is the minor scenario differences are enough to very much limit convection particularly the differences in mid to upper level lapse rates.

Just been having a close look at Wednesday Afternoon and although there are ingredients for storms the modelling is not really playing ball. We do have upper level wind divergence due to the jet streak approaching Southern Ireland and we have a surface trough bringing some concentrated moist air. Low level wind convergence and turning winds as you go up the atmosphere would suggest longer lived convection. The problem is that mid to upper level lapse rates are very poor limiting cloud height, convection relies on dewpoints above 15C which is rare for the UK. Experience tells me to be wary of knee deep humidity showing up as storms being modelled. Having taken this into account we should also consider temperatures are likely to hit mid 20s on Wednesday which is not well modelled and upper levels look like typical June modelling which will not be taking into account the effects of the May weather pattern. At the minute there is very little suggestion of storms for Wednesday but I have some doubts about some of the parameters showing in the modelling. Something to keep an eye on as we get closer to Wednesday at the modelling becomes more accurate.

Slack low pressure over the UK with surface lows over northern Scotland and another moving across the southern part of the UK. Temperatures are pretty low so instability and storm severity is likely to be low. With light winds storms are likely to be slow moving giving a risk of localized flooding. Looking at forecast SkewT's I see a moist atmosphere all the way up which suggests messy convection, very light winds suggesting slow moving storms, limited cloud tops suggesting storms may not be particularly electrified. When I look into the wind patterns in more detail I see one or two interesting areas. Firstly perhaps enhanced winds across the south coast with winds changing direction quite quickly. Next is the marked convergence suggested over East Anglia and directional wind shear along the East coast. Third is an area of the Midlands where winds at the surface are in the opposite direction to cloud base winds. These factors do not materially change storm severity but suggest spout like weak tornadoes could be spotted today. Looking at satellite pictures now and I would be looking at the South coast as a key area for storms with East Anglia later.

Cold front moving across the UK later today seem to have developed a marked squall line. This does not really look convective but modelling suggest quick bursts of low level winds up to 60mph and heavy rainfall as the boundary crosses the UK. More chances of thunderstorms tomorrow first Western areas and perhaps later Eastern areas.

Introduction My intention is to produce a series of articles (depending on interest) which introduces ideas about volcanic and earthquake activity. I want to go slightly off the beaten track to explore oddities, volcano hazards, analysis methods, Wonders and Mankind’s impacts. Keep in mind I am not expert (corrections gratefully received), but hopefully these will at least give a flavour of some different places in the world and provide a few minutes escape from people’s troubles. Introducing Volcano Mount Karthala Reason for Interest This is a very active volcano with a history of collapse, lava flows reaching the sea, going through a step change in activity in a tectonic environment that can create new large volcanoes. For me this is a very dangerous volcano which will cause issues in the near future. The Setting Named after the Arabic word for moon the Comoros Islands are volcanic islands between the coast of Mozambique and the island of Madagascar consisting of four islands – Ngazidja (Grande Comore), Moheli, Anjouan and Mayotte. Originally the Comoros were known as the ‘Perfume Islands’ due to their fragrant flowers, like the yellow ylang-ylang, used in perfumes which where imported and cultivated by French colonialists. While Mayotte remains under French Administration the rest of the islands became an independent nation in 1975. Grande Comore is the largest of the Comoros Islands with the capital city (Moroni) of the nation located there. The whole western side of Grande Comore is full of very highly rated beaches with Ndroudé being the longest and widest and Mitsamiouli Beach being considered one of the top beaches in the world. In the far northern part of the island is the small crater lake 'Lac Sale' which the locals call the bottomless lake probably due to some professional divers who tried to explore the lake but never came back. South of Moroni is Iconi which was once the capital of the Sultanate of Bambao and the first capital of Comoros. Moroni has a distinctly relaxed Arabian pace of life with the labyrinthine medina at the center which is crisscrossed by cobbled alleyways that are lined with intricately carved doorways, ornate mosques and charming Middle Eastern-style cafes. Moroni’s principal landmark is the two-storied and gleaming white 15th-century Old Friday mosque ( Nouvelle Mosquee de Vendredi Mosque dating back to around 1427) restored in the 1920s by France to pay tribute to those Comorians killed fighting for them during the First World War. The islands have a tropical climate with two clearly marked seasons: a cooler, dry period between May and October and a warmer, humid season between November and April. In November the summer monsoon (kashkazi) brings the highest afternoon temperatures—about 33 °C. The highest monthly rainfall occurs in January with about 11–15 inches. Dry season daily maximum temperatures fall to their lowest 29 °C in July. The average annual rainfall varies between 40 to 100 inches being highest on the windward northeast sides of the islands. The island has a coastal zone of mangroves followed inland by a zone of coconut palms, mangoes, and bananas up to about 1,300 feet. Above this a forest zone of Mohogany and orchids rises to about 5,900 feet where they give way to broom, heather, and lichens. Additional aromatic plants such as frangipani (Plumeria), jasmine, and lemongrass lend a delightful fragrance to the islands. The Tectonic environment The Comoros islands are roughly W-NW aligned and extend over 270 km in the Western Indian Ocean, on the northern edge of the Mozambique channel. The channel formed by the opening of the Somali and Mozambique Basins which dislocated the micro continent Madagascar to the south, away from the African continental plate. It was thought that a hotspot migrated under the chain of islands propagating to the northwest creating the volcanic Islands. This chain of volcanic islands and seamounts becomes progressively older from the still-active volcanism at Grande Comoros toward the older volcanic areas in northern Madagascar. Volcanic activity history and aging are not really consistent with a migrating hotspot as older volcanoes don't seem to be becoming less active. It is now proposed that East Africa consists of smaller sub plates and it is the twisting between these sub plates that has given rise to the islands. The clockwise rotation of Somalia relative to Lwandle creates a right-lateral shear zone which causes ripping and rifting along the sub plate boundary where the Comoros Islands are. A zone of broad deformation extends from the eastern boundary of the Rovuma microplate, across the Comoros Islands, and including parts of central and northern Madagascar. This does not explain volcanic rock analysis from the islands which still suggest a deep mantle source for Magma, so we might expect some refinement of tectonics in the area over time. 2018 Earthquake Mystery On 10 May 2018, an unprecedented long and intense seismic crisis started offshore, east of Mayotte, the easternmost of the Comoros volcanic islands. The population felt hundreds of events. Seismic activity began with a swarm of thousands of seemingly tectonic earthquakes then changed around June to a completely new form of earthquake signal which was so strong that it could be recorded up to a thousand kilometers away. These 20 to 30 minute long signals are characterized by particularly harmonic, low frequencies, similar to a large bell or a double bass, and are called Very Long Period (VLP) signals. French researchers have now identified the source of the puzzling activity as the birth of a submarine volcano some 31 miles off Mayotte's eastern shore. Sitting about two miles underwater, the new volcano stretches nearly half a mile high and extends up to three miles across. The Volcano Mount Karthala is an active volcano and the highest point of the Comoros Nation at 2,361 m above sea level. It is the southernmost and larger of the two shield volcanoes forming Grande Comore island (the other volcano being La Grille volcano). The Karthala volcano is very active, having erupted more than 20 times since the 19th century and is considered the youngest volcano in the island group. Frequent eruptions have shaped the volcano's summit caldera with two well developed rift zones intersecting at the summit caldera complex. Mount Karthala features eight or more overlapping calderas, nested pit craters and several terraces which are aligned in a sort of diamond shape. The center of the caldera complex is occupied by the crater “Choungou Chahalé”, the older main crater, which consists now of two inner pits. Another crater is “Choungou Changouméni”, a small circular pit crater of 220 m diameter in the northern lobe of the caldera, next to a small scoria cone from 1972. Around my inner crater, fumaroles emit superheated steam with a sulphurous odour. Elongated rift zones extend to the NNW and SE from the summit. The lower SE rift zone forms the Massif du Badjini, a peninsula at the SE tip of the island. A sharp landslide scarps constitutes the northern limit of the Badjini massif at the SE end of Grande Comore. This landslide scarp is evidence of a large failure of the E flank of Mt. Karthala. Past Eruptions Two strong eruptions in 1972 and 1977 did significant damage as lava flows reached the ocean. In 1977, the coastal village of Singani was partly destroyed by lava flows. In 1860, a lava flow even reached the coast close to the island capital where you will find a number of lava tubes. The 1991 eruption marks the beginning of a style change in Karthala’s behaviour. The eruption followed three months of increasing seismicity and inflation. After several hours of relative calm a sizeable phreatic explosion further enlarged Choungou Chahalé and lowered its floor. In a visit to the summit two weeks after the 11 July explosion people heard a “fountaining” sound, but no lava fountains or any other source were visible. It turned out later that this would have been the sound of the forceful arrival of water into the new crater, forming a crater lake for the first time. Scientists believe now, that this explosion had changed the hydrothermal system below the volcano, as all following eruptions were phreato-magmatic in nature. Recent Activity 2005 eruption During April inhabitants heard a rumbling coming from the volcano and observed an ash column above the summit. The first ash-fall deposits began to form soon afterwards on the island's eastern side. According to the firsts reports, ash deposition increased and continued accompanied by a strong smell of sulfur. Observers saw a very dark plume spreading into a mushroom shape and accompanied by lightning flashes. Some inhabitants panicked and fled the island's eastern villages. During the next few days ash continued to fall on the eastern part of the island and were heavy enough to require inhabitants to use umbrellas to get about. A pilot for Comoros Aviation, flew over the west flank and observed a large plume in the direction of the Chahalé crater and observed airborne molten ejecta. As the eruption continued authorities decided to evacuate some 30,000 residents from eastern villages. The following days saw ash falls on the island's western and northern parts, notably, on the country's capital city of Moroni and on the Hahaya airport. Lahars damaged roads and hundreds of houses, affecting thousands of inhabitants at the foot of Karthala volcano. Eruptions continued through to later in the year when investigators ascended Karthala and observed a molten-surfaced lava lake inside Chahalé crater. 2006 activity The eruption started during June with the first signs being smoke from the volcano. Rather than being explosive with ash emissions this eruption was more effusive with lave flowing down the side of the mountain. Within a few days the eruption stopped and lava flow stopped before it could reach coastal areas. 2007 Activity Scientists from the KVO reported that an eruption occurred during the evening of 12 January. A local news article noted Moroni residents observing jets of red flames above the summit. An ash plume was observed above the volcano and Aerial observations later in the month showed a lava lake forming within the crater. 2012 Activity Observers in the villages of Mde and Mkazi, on the W flank of Karthala, reported increased incandescence from the summit during the night of 9-10 May. Discussion It is certainly a dangerous volcano, but what perhaps catches my attention is the risk of Lahars and Landslides. Maybe it is just the hotspot contention or the mysterious new volcano created under water near Mayotte. Certainly worth a bit more investigation and conversation.

Complicated low level pattern of low wind convergence patterns seem to be a focus for convection today. This is particularly evident along eastern coast late into the afternoon as sea breezes spring up. Forecast SkewT diagrams show a little less moisture in the air going upwards which should reduce the number of storms today but increases the risk of discreet slightly stronger storms. Focus of the upper trough is likely to be across Ireland and the southern half of the UK so storms further north might be a little less electrified. Places to watch out for include East Anglia, East Ireland with possibilities for mid wales through the Midlands, The Scottish Borders and the south west. One outlier might be the lobe of vorticity currently south of Ireland reaching the south west during today and bringing some stronger storms. Looking out the window this morning I can see mid level cloud moving along a little faster than in previous days (slightly longer lived storms rather than pulse) with any upper level haze not being present (drier air aloft enhancing instability). With heat island effects likely to be in place across major cities (Models under estimating instability due to high temperatures in cities) there may be a risk of stronger localized wind patterns developing around storms. Most likely similar pattern to yesterday with risk of localized flooding with eastern areas at greatest risk of storms. There are a few different factors involved today which will make it worth while keeping your eyes on the radar.

Looks like little potent line of storms developing in south wales today and evidence of maybe a convective line in the North West. On shore breezes in eastern coastal areas likely to play a part again. Think as the day goes on things will start to focus in more eastern areas. Tomorrow looks like more of the same except the maritime air looks a little less moist going upwards through the atmosphere. There is also a short wave feature shown up on some of the models coming in from the south west (Shows up on EUMetsat Imagery as well). Winds still look light and instability is meagre but a slightly more focused convective environment might produce a few surprises. East coast on shore winds also look like they will have a part to play again both today and tomorrow.

Storm forecasts need to be realistic and when temperatures are below 20C then updraft strengths are likely to be limited. Equally when the air moisture is fairly consistent upwards then you are likely to get messy convection without good focus for storms. What we do have is a slow moving surface type low under an upper trough. This typically would give us slow moving heavy rainfall pulse type storms. With surface instability somewhat weak and mid level lapse rates being a strong driver of instability through the zero degree isotherm then hail should be part of the mix along with lightning (cold cloud tops today playing a part). There are some features which are tricky to assess today which could affect storm severity in a few areas. The First is where low level wind convergence will take place and will it be discreet. The second is that as the surface low crosses the South just north of the low you have an area where low level and surface winds are weak but in different directions (the low is not vertically stacked upwards). Strong directional sheer especially near the surface can sometimes make up for very poor speed wind shear. The third feature which is not on every model is suggestions of slight jet like conditions at cloud base level in some discreet places (especially along the south coast). I think I would be keeping an eye on East Wales and Oxfordshire for a start and then maybe perhaps some Eastern coasts where costal on shore winds will get thrown into the mix. Probably easier to watch the radar now and the big concern is likely to be localized flash flooding.

Still a chance of some storms today but generally the air profile is moist all the way up with limited cloud tops. Upper level trough still dips down over the western an southern halves of the UK enhancing cloud tops but winds are unidirectional all the way up. Instability looks like it will be in short supply unless cloud breaks which for most will not happen due to the moist profile all the way up the troposphere. Possibly Scottish Borders and Cumbria look interesting for spout like whirlwinds especially out of the sea. Some heavier down falls possible over parts of the midlands and wales. Again a slight risk of spout features due to low level convergence if lift from the boundary layer cn happen (unlikely unless the sun comes out), with Oxford M4 corridor southwards a potential area. Not a classic thunderstorm day but a few interesting points.

Introduction My intention is to produce a series of articles (depending on interest) which introduces ideas about volcanic and earthquake activity. I want to go slightly off the beaten track to explore oddities, volcano hazards, analysis methods, Wonders and Mankind’s impacts. Keep in mind I am not expert (corrections gratefully received), but hopefully these will at least give a flavour of some different places in the world and provide a few minutes escape from people’s troubles. Introducing The Salton Sea Buttes Volcanoes Reason for Interest Volcano activity in Southern California tends to escape attention due to the priority concerns with earthquakes. With volcanic activity in the Salton Sea area being younger than originally thought and crustal extension (rifting) being held back by the locked San Andreas Fault the area needs monitoring. The volume of melt material below the area is thought to be very large so we should not assume that future volcanic activity in the area would be quite as benign as it has been till now. This is probably why the USGS now consider this area to be of particular concern. Maybe what really piques my interest is seeing a side to California you don't normally see. The Setting One of the world's largest inland seas and lowest spots on earth at -227 below sea level, Salton Sea was re-created in 1905 when high spring flooding on the Colorado River crashed the canal gates leading into the developing Imperial Valley. For the next 18 months the entire volume of the Colorado River rushed downward into the Salton Trough. By the time engineers were finally able to stop the breaching water in 1907, the Salton Sea had been born at 45 miles long and 20 miles wide and 51 feet deep. In the 1950’s the Salton Sea was the place to vacation for Hollywood stars. The Hollywood influx quickly turned this small vacation getaway into an attraction drawing in 500,000 people a year. Star-filled clubs such as Ace & Spades and the 500 Club sprouted up and recreational boating took off. Many celebrities would come from Los Angeles and down from Palm Springs to take part in the beach life and great water sports offered at Salton Sea. Increasing salinity in the Salton Sea basin has limited the number of types of fish that can be found there, and most fish currently caught are Tilapia. The once-bustling hotels are derelict, broken wooden frames of buildings stand in some spots as other structures are badly decaying with graffiti spray painted over the boarded-up windows and doors. On hot summer days when the temperature can reach up to 120F (48.8C), a pungent Sulphur odor hangs in the air that can be smelled 150 miles away in Los Angeles. Near the Salton Sea can be found Salvation Mountain which Leonard Knight used 30 years of his life and gave up everything to build this colorful masterpiece. In 1984, Leonard was set out to spread the word of the bible and when his truck broke down he starting building Salvation Mountain on the very spot and lived onsite until 2012 when he was moved to a nursing home. Nearby can be found East Jesus a community of artists that live together, create art and party in the desert. The imperial sand dunes to the south of the sea are a 15 mile long and 3 mile wide stretch of 400 foot tall sand dunes. The Dunes have been the home to the tapping of many movies including Stars Wars and is a huge haven for dune buggy enthusiasts. The Date Farms are the most important part of the Salton Sea area’s economy today. Ever since the celebrities and tourists stopped coming in the 1960’s most of the area has become a rundown, dingy area, but the Date Farms have stayed strong. To the North of the Sea is Palm Springs which is like a mini desert Hollywood. Well it’s not quite filled with the high level of stars it was in the 50’s when the Salton Sea was booming but it is still a beautiful place to visit. If you’ve ever wondered what Jurassic-sized palm trees may have looked like then the Anza-Borrego State Park and Palm Canyon is your chance to see. This grove of 100 foot tall bushy palms is crazy. The park is located to the west of the Salton Sea. Joshua Tree National Park is in southeastern California, east of Los Angeles and near Palm Springs and north of the Salton sea it is named after the Joshua trees native to the Mojave Desert. Between San Diego and the Salton sea is the Anza-Borrego Desert State Park. The Tectonic environment The Salton Sea is a large shallow lake located in the central Salton Trough of Southern California. The lake covers the southernmost extension of the San Andreas Fault (SSAF), where the fault takes a southwestward step to the Imperial Fault (IF). The region around the SSAF is actively being stretched due to extensional deformation. Numerous faults, high levels of seismicity and a series of young volcanic buttes suggest this region may be a source for future geohazards. The Salton Trough is an on shore analog to those rift systems in the Gulf of California. It includes the Coachella Valley, Salton Sea, Imperial Valley, and Mexicali Valley from northwest to southeast. The northern Imperial Valley and southern Salton Sea are seismically highly active. Seismicity occurs at 3–8 km depth in the Salton Sea geothermal field at the southeastern shore of the Salton Sea, 3–11 km depth in most of the Brawley Seismic Zone. The entire valley is also characterized by very high heat flow. Brawley Seismic Zone The Brawley Seismic Zone is a north-striking zone of northwest and northeast-striking faults that extends from the southern end of the San Andreas fault to the northern end of the Imperial fault. Across this zone crustal spreading occurs within the transition from the Gulf of California mid-ocean ridge to the San Andreas transform fault. The largest earthquakes to have occurred on the cross-faults were the magnitude 6.2 Elmore Ranch event in 1987. Although the Brawley Seismic Zone activity is clearly proximal to the southern San Andreas fault, the San Jacinto fault zone, and the Imperial fault, the current activity is remaining more than 10 km distant from any of these major faults. Repeated swarms occur in the Seismic zone as rifting occurs but there is no suggestion that these swarms are volcanic in nature. Three times in the last 15 years in 2001, 2009, and 2016, clusters of small earthquakes occurred within a few kilometers distance of the southern terminus of the SAF, within the northern Brawley Seismic Zone at a depth of 3 - 10km. There has been some concern that stress releases in the Brawley Seismic zone could trigger larger earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The relative likelihood of such an occurrence was considered to be high because the southern SAF ruptured last in a major earthquake more than 320 years ago and the average recurrence rate of large earth-quakes on the southern San Andreas fault is about 180 years. Recent research however suggests that there is likely very little transfer of stress from the Brawley Seismic Zone and to the San Andreas fault. There is however very little research on the impacts to the Brawley Seismic Zone as a result of a significant San Andreas fault earthquake and we are left to guess whether this would lead to enough extension for volcanic activity to initiate again. The Volcano The Salton Buttes are a group of volcanoes in California in the south eastern part of the Salton Sea. They consist of a 7 kilometer long row of five lava domes each no more than 1 kilometer wide. From North to south they are Mullet Island, North Red Hill, South Red Hill, Rock Hill and Obsidian Butte. Obsidian Butte is surrounded by a lava flow, and Mullet Island has a characteristic "onion-skin" foliation with hot springs. The domes were formed by effusive eruptions, but at least Obsidian Butte and South Red Hill also experienced explosive eruptions, which at Obsidian Butte preceded the effusive eruption stage. The lava source for the volcanoes is a magma chamber beneath the Salton Sea, which also heats water for a nearby geothermal plant. These volcanic domes are associated with a local northeast-striking magnetic high that is interpreted to be caused by a magnetic mass, 30 km long, 3 to 12 km wide, and about 4 km thick, with its top buried more than 2 km below the surface. The intrusion under the Salton Sea is thought to be a pluton, an arm or protrusion from a deeply buried molten magma. This intrusion is parallel to the axis of the Salton Trough. Geophysical evidence shows that liquid magma is still present underneath the Salton Buttes. The buttes last erupted between 940 and not 30,000 years ago as previously thought with the U.S. Geological Survey listing the area as a high threat for future blasts. Hot Springs The Hot springs within Salton sea area were known and used by Indians for centuries. The first commercial development in the area dates from the turn of the century, when a therapeutic spa was opened in the foothills of the Chocolate Mountains near Bombay Beach on the east shore of the Salton Sea. This spring is still in use, and is unusual for its high water temperature, ranging from 135 to 180 degrees Fahrenheit. The hot springs are concentrated in a linear pattern along the eastern side of the valley. The line of springs extends from Desert Hot Springs into Mexico, and the arrangement strongly suggests that the warm waters are reaching the surface using fractures of the San Andreas fault system as conduits. There are several experimental geothermal developments in the Imperial Valley, extending from the south shore of the Salton Sea into Mexico. The Salton Sea geothermal field is the largest and the hottest of the several fields in the Salton Valley, and has the longest history of development. The mysterious mud spring Refusing to stay in place, a roiling mass of carbon dioxide and slurry-like soil is migrating across the state at a pace of 20 feet a year. Scientists currently have no real idea why it’s moving or if it can be stopped. Currently located just north of Niland, the mud spring is moving toward Union Pacific Railroad tracks and giving engineers there a headache. A well dug to depressurize the source of the gas had no effect. Steel walls driven 80 feet into the ground were also nonchalantly circumvented; the mud pot simply ducked under them and continued its freakishly linear path of destruction. Mud pots and mud volcanoes generally don’t emit much water, but this one is extremely vigorous, producing somewhere around 40,000 gallons of water a day. This mud spring is close to—but not on—the Wister Fault, a southeastern extension of the San Andreas. However, it appears to be tracing a path that’s at right angles to the region’s major faults. Recent Activity In late August 2005, a swarm of more than a thousand earthquakes between magnitudes 1 and 5.1 occurred at the Obsidian Buttes, near the southern San Andreas Fault. The earthquake swarm shook the nearby town of Brawley with the USGS attributing the temblors to faults in the Brawley Seismic Zone. In September, a sulfurous stench emanated from the Salton Sea and wafted across the Inland Empire. The odor was tentatively linked to a fish die-off, but could also have been caused by volcanic gases. Discussion These are not impressive volcanoes nor is this a glamorous part of California but for me that is exactly why it should be brought to peoples attention. Perhaps the biggest risk here is from earthquakes but there may well be a large source of Magma which would make me nervous.

Introduction My intention is to produce a series of articles (depending on interest) which introduces ideas about volcanic and earthquake activity. I want to go slightly off the beaten track to explore oddities, volcano hazards, analysis methods, Wonders and Mankind’s impacts. Keep in mind I am not expert (corrections gratefully received), but hopefully these will at least give a flavour of some different places in the world and provide a few minutes escape from people’s troubles. Introducing Volcano Mount Kaimon (Kaimondake) Reason for Interest A volcano less than 4000 years old with a typical repose time of 400 years which has not erupted for 1000 years suggests a volcano that needs close watching. At the base of the volcano is the Ibusuki City with a population of nearly 50,000 makes it worthy of attention. The Setting Kyushu is the third largest island of Japan's five main islands and the most southerly of the four largest islands. The Satsuma Peninsula is a peninsula which projects south from the southwest part of Kyushu Island. To the west lies the East China Sea, while to the east it faces the Osumi Peninsula across Kagoshima Bay. Near the southern tip of the Peninsula is the 924-metre-high mount Kaimon and the hot springs of Ibusuki Onsen The submerged 15 x 25 km Ata caldera under Kagoshima Bay is one of several large calderas in southern Kyushu. The Ata Caldera forms the bottom section of Kagoshima Bay and also the SE tip of Satsuma Peninsula. Within the perimeter of Ata Caldera are numerous more recent volcanic features including Mount Kaimon in the western corner of the caldera which covered the entire peninsula in scoria about 4000 years ago. About 5000 years ago, the 4x3km Ikeda Caldera was formed in the NW corner of Ata Caldera by a powerful explosive eruption. Lake Ikeda is the biggest volcanic lake in Kyushu with a circumference of 15km. The lake itself has a depth of over 200m and is also home to a unique species of giant eel which can grow up to 2m long and weigh up to 5kg. These eels are perhaps the inspiration for the legend of Isshii, the monster of the lake. Ibusuki at the southern tip of Kagoshima is famous for its sunamushi, or sand bathing. Volcanic hot springs line the coast of Ibusuki near to Mount Kaimon, warming the sands to 50-55 degrees Celsius. To experience a sand bath, you wear a light cotton yukata, and lie a shallow depression in the beach. An attendant will protect your face with a towel and shovel the warm sand over you until you’re buried up to your neck in the black sand, with only your head exposed to the air. After ten minutes or so, you emerge, warm and relaxed. The Flower Park Kagoshima is located near the southern tip of the Satsuma Peninsula, about a kilometer north of Cape Nagasakibana and below Mount Kaimon. The Flower Park claims to be the largest flower theme park in Japan with about half a million plants of more than 2400 different varieties. In addition to typical local flowers, there are other species from tropical regions all over the world, including Brazil, Australia and South Africa. The Kaimon golf course lies at the foot of the Mount Kaimon volcano at the southernmost point of Satsuma peninsula and utilizes natural geographical features. The course is noted for 'Kaimon Oroshi', the gust of wind blowing down the Kaimon Mountain and 'Umikaze', the sea wind blowing up from the ocean making a relatively difficult course to play. A big sand-craft event is held every spring on Fukiagehama Beach, one of the three largest sand dunes of Japan. Many teams from home and abroad participate to create original works. The Tectonic environment The Kagoshima rift is located in southern Kyushu Japan and includes Kagoshima Bay. Flora and fauna is representative of subtropical oceanic areas. The rift system developed behind the volcanic front of the Ryuku Arc and is about 30km wide. The southern part extends through Kagoshima Bay and accommodates five major calderas. About 1 million years ago crustal stresses changed from compression to extension. Crustal faults produced by the rapid crustal extension combined with melt from the subducted Phillipine Sea Plate have allowed large amounts of Magma to rise. This has lead to the formation of the Kakuto ,Aira ,Norrthern Ata ,Southern Ata and Kikai calderas. Northern Ata caldera is 16 km by 12 km in dimension and is located 200 m below sea level. This caldera is presumed to have formed 110 ka by an explosive eruption. Southern Ata caldera is 24 km by 14 km in dimension and is presumed to have formed 240 ka by explosive eruption. Subsequent eruptions occurred along the northwestern area of the presumed caldera. These included formation of the Ibusuki volcano about 30 ka, the Ikedako caldera and Kaimondake volcano. The Volcano Kaimondake (Mount Kaimon) is nicknamed the “Fuji of Kyushu” for its similarity in shape and symmetry to Japan’s most famous peak, although it’s just a quarter of its size standing at 934 m (3031, ft). Located at the southernmost tip of Satsuma Peninsula it is small stratovolcano. The summit crater, which is named Hachikubo, had been thought to be a collapse crater, but it was geologically proved to be a large explosion crater which was successively enlarged during an eruption. A mountain path spirals up from the foot of the mountain, such that you can enjoy the scenery from a variety of angles. At the foot is the oldest herb farm in Japan, Kaimon Sanroku Koen Ryoen. Here, you can enjoy cooking using herbs from the farm. At the foot of Mount Kaimon, there are two tunnels feared as the spookiest spots in Kagoshima Prefecture. There is no lighting system in the tunnels except for the holes in the ceiling at intervals to let through natural light. They are not one-way but crossing paths is extremely difficult as the roads are too narrow. The atmosphere is ominous and sinister even in daytime. A large number of spooky phenomenon have been reported by the drivers : the backseat of the car suddenly got wet; some face-like figure stuck out from the ventilation hole; a man in a military uniform was walking with blood splatters all over his body. If you happen to look at a female face dangling from a ceiling hole, there will be a little chance that you can safely go out of the tunnels. Past Eruptions Eruptive activity began at Kaimondake approximately 4,400 years ago with an initial eruption in a shallow sea area. Eruptions occurred repeatedly, emitting lava, and it is postulated that approximately 2,500 years ago a volcanic edifice roughly the same size as the present one had been formed. Significant amounts of volcanic material were discharged in the volcanic activity approximately 1,500 and 2,000 years ago, greatly contributing to the formation of the stratovolcano. After this, during the historical era, the eruptions in 874 and 885 greatly changed the topography of the summit area, and towards the end of the eruptions, a lava dome was formed inside the crater. Kaimondake last erupted in the Heian period about 1,150 years ago. The eruptions of the Heian period occurred in year 16 of the Jogan era (874 AD) and the first year of Nin-na era (885 AD). The houses and farmland of the Hashimuregawa and the Shikiryo archaeological sites located in Ibusuki city were significantly damaged by the eruption of Kaimondake volcano. Discussion Perhaps it is the shape or the haunted tunnels that caught my attention. More likely it is that this is young volcano that has been eerily quiet in a quieter part of Japan that concerns me.