CSC

I would say -5 or -7 for Southern England, on the evening of the 9th. -5 for most of the UK, -10 for some areas of northern UK. -12 for Scottland or colder. -5 to -8 western UK!

People are talking about day temps at 0 in 9 days on the ECMWF.. the Met Office has this before the weekend for most of the UK.. -15 for Northern UK!

May I ask what is with the negativity by some? The MetOffice has been showing-5 for days for most of the country next Friday evening. I am going to make a bold statement and say this will be a historic cold spell. I think the blocking on some models showing a progression to more warmer weather to be overdone. This blocking is significant, and I would not be surprised if London sees -7 at some point in the next 10 days. If we don't get snow this time around, country wide, we will be INCREDIBLY unlucky.

I agree entirely. Even the Sussex coast could see a similar amount..

I think you gave a pretty good chance of snow laying (80%), and possibly quite accumulative

Confused when I saw their week forecast and it said ram for south

I find it pretty unbelievable that we are in a moment where this time next week we could either have blizzards or mild heavy rain. Uncertain times indeed! Please ECM weather gods..

Imagine if the cold tonight moves out too slow and the rain is snow instead! Wishful thinking I know

I know! The temperatures forecast from it have been spot on in my area here too. I think it has built its reputation

I’m going to stick my neck out and say Thursday the snow will go much further south than expected. It seems to be trending more south and en evolution of the GEM idea is likely for me. I know some don’t rate GEM but I think it’s done well lately

I know mate! I just mean I’ve been weather watching for a few years now and have not seen something like this. So many changes at so many times!

what ON EARTH IS GOING ON? Blizzard in south U.K. on SATURDAY? The weather is drunk.

I was only joking great analysis as always!

I will hold you to the no significant snow/cold idea if it happens

I would like to ask those hypothetically, what would a T196+ ECM12z scenario entail? You think dare I say it, historical snow somewhere in U.K.?

Please cold weather gods. Provide us with a moment of history. The change of atmosphere here today are I think historic in itself

-4°c or -10°c? There is a huge variation and just D4. This has major repercussions to whether we see widespread snow or rain!

What I find quite extraordinary is we are a day closer and we STILL don’t know what is going on in just a few days time! Phenomenal times.

Possibly. Personally I believe if it can’t get the first 72 hours right then from then onward might aswell be disregarded. It’s possible all models are wrong! Back to the drawing board tomorrow!

Good to hear some still have optimism!

For the doom and Gloomers, it’s clear GFS OP is an obvious outlier and its fiat to say the models don’t have a clue what’s going on even at t48, t72. Check these 2m temp forecasts from the ensembles tonight. Some say 9c, some say freezing at 0c. The GFS are clueless right now!

I see a lot tonight suffering from post Chart watching depression. Remember this is ONE run. Albeit, it didn’t go the way some may have hoped but it’s ONLY ONE run. Wait until tomorrow before having any more predictions! I think all scenarios are still on the table and even t120 no one knows, so for those guessing what’s happening in 6 weeks time saying cold is gone and our hopes our lost, baffle me to be honest. Cold is in our sights and I believe one way or another, it is coming in it’s masses! Best opportunity here in a long time. Heads up NW community! Onto the pub run now...

Evening all! When I mentioned earlier today the potential for a significant cold spell in just a weeks time, some laughed at me. I am thankful for those who defended the input of mine and others, even when it didn’t appear to be the common opinion. The Net weather community, is in its core, a great and supportive community. Great to see tonight the potential cold remerging even more. It must be added we still some hurdles to cross, alas some may be tricky, but it is certainly looking even brighter that we may experience finally widespread cold AND (hopefully) snow event in the U.K. for the first time since 2013. Have a great evening all, and I’ll be back tomorrow to analyse the charts once again with you all. May the Cold weather gods win!

I have a feeling, and this may be bold, that all models are currently wrong. Feel free to relate back to this in the days ahead! The SSW events have created absolute havoc for these models, even the UKMO is struggling to get temps right t+6 hours today. Be optimistic guys, I believe the chance hasn’t faded yet. Onto the pub run!

May I add an Easterly / NE’ly is more than plausible from this position. Not too sure what has driven you insane. Maybe the grinch has arrived late for Christmas!