[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Sunday evening Met Office website is suggesting a snow event for South East UK..

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

This GFS is an uttter embarassment now. So many times recently it's go badly wrong. -2 temps shown on a set up which will probably create -5 widely? Doesn't surprise me anymore.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

4 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I'm sorry but it's all Fantasy Island territory,  yes by all means talk about it and post about it, just for fun..but if you're getting geared up for a snow event that far away be prepared to be dissapointed. ...

I am not getting geared up for a snow event. I have studied the weather for more than 10 years. I am well aware at this point that 10 day GFS forecasts are fantasy world. But that isnt my point here.

 

My point is that as we have a growing and increasingly probable chance of severe cold, we also have a growing chance of this cold air interacting with low pressure systems. It is therefore why we look out for new features and use our weather knowledge to make predictions. All 3 main forecasting models have a pressure system interacting with cold air at some point next week. It is not fantasy world to think that if cold air hits a low pressure system, snow will be created. It is simply just logic.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

5 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

My point.....it won't happen ,it's ten days away ,!

We are not talking about specifics. Our aim as weather enthusiasts are to spot features and make predictions. All 3 models predict a similiar set up. The possibility of a low pressure system next weekend interacting with cold air is just as likely as it is unlikely at this stage. Remain optimistic!

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

These temperatures show quite well the difference between the warm and cold air. This is definitely something to keep an eye on for next week.  how quickly will this cold air move?

 

As we predicted... a nationwide snow event looks set to happen if we can hold onto that air.

 

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[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

and now we look to see how this low pressure system interacts with the cold air. My hunch is.. A SNOW EVENT.. but lets see on the next few runs...

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

 

 

Here comes that low pressure system again SW of the UK.  Depending on the positioning of this, we could end up with spoils or a historic snow event! Most likely somewhere in between.

If we can keep the cold air long enough before an inevitable temporary switch to slightly warmer air (i say warmer, maybe only 3c daytime temps), something memorable might be on the horizon.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Might be something worth pointing out - ECM and UKMO have a feature moving West to East late next weekend.. UKMO the super cold air holds out a little longer.  Dependant on timings, this could create signficant potential for a nationwide snow event. Alas at this stage, its in the extended. 

 

But it is worth noting, this is the kind of set up where a reload can occur and a few of these events could happen over the space of a few weeks.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Ok this is playing devills advocate, but.. in the event that this ridiculous tropical storm ended up collding with severe cold in the UK, what kind of preci[ numbers are we thinking? Unprecedented if it verified..

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Much talk on here about that mega gfs atlantic storm and even more talked about discounting it as an impossibility. However, it's only 24 hours since THAT ECM which depressed a Friday evening on here (attached to jog memories). It was this same bomb system (all be it a more watered down version) that broke the cold spell on that run. Maybe it shouldn't be discounted totally if it has been showed by the ecm and gfs within the space of 24 hours. 

a very good point, one to watch for sure!

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

I think overall the temperatures will be quite accurate, but these GFS ensembles don't look right to me. It seems like the one sheep has followed the pack. I wouldn't be surprised to wake up tomorrow with the average maximums being -2 for next weekend amd these numbers entirely shifted. It only takes a minor change for all these numbers to shift!

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

What I have noticed in recent times is the GFS is good at picking up anomolies or feature changes, where as the MetOffice is good at picking up the general direction of weather. This is why tonight makes for interesting viewing. The GFS has just forecasted some bonkers looking tropical storm. Is this a new feature, or just a blip? We will find out soon!

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Icon 18z has temperatures widely -2 by 6pm this coming Thursday 8th December. GFS is the only one currently gone bonkers -  I think its had too many pints watching the world cup!

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

To be fair to the MetOffice, it has stuck to its guns and tonight has trended colder. It hasn't moved for days. It's the most accurate one right now!

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

42 minutes ago, CSC said:

GFS pub run is going to be a cracker.. Blocking established at just day 3. I reckon this could show some singificant precip. Lets wait..!

It did in the end.. but cunjured up some crazy tropical storm. What is going on with our weather?!  This is bonkers.

 

Tonights run really sets it up for an interesting UKMO and ECM 00z. I personally think the 18z is a blip. The ensembles will be worth a close watch..

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Just now, Howie said:

Just shows our luck in the Uk, of all the things to scupper a cold spell a bloody tropical storm was not what I had in mind. Ridiculous 

Don't worry! It is just one run, and it is the pub run after all. I would take it with a grain of salt this tropical storm.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Saturday 10th at 00:00 hours. GFS vs MET Office

 

 

 

The difference is incredible. Met Office has far colder temperatures!

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Looks to me this 18z is a bit overdone. It happens too fast, and the positioning seems wrong. Pub run will create pub related outcomes!

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

 

Just look at the difference already between yesterday's 18z and today's - at approx t90 hours. A far more established block on this evenings run. This is what we want!

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

GFS pub run is going to be a cracker.. Blocking established at just day 3. I reckon this could show some singificant precip. Lets wait..!

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

8 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not much snow for the South from the ECM 12 run.

But hopefully a sign of things to come further down the road ?

its after this the 9th precip will come for the whole country. When the warmer air comes across and meets the cold, we could be in for something special. 

Cold air is most likely not shifting any time soon, so the warm air won't make it very far across. It could make a set up of several wintry events.

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

I know this is unrelated and sorry mods but.. I just want to imagine, england win the world cup, its -5 everywhere and snow outside..

Nothing surely would top that. (Sorry mods again!!)

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

For context on temperature probabilities.. I chose a random snapshot of southern England on the latest ECM. An incredible -9 is forecast, BEFORE wind chill. In the freezer!

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

 

If the predicted MetO 144h pulls off, cold is going absolutely no where. No matter what the models suggest, and how quickly they predict this kind of set up will break down. Logic will prevail. This is sub zero temperature stuff. 

 

I/d assume there is a chance of some kind of reload in this scenario, and if that happens, well.. who knows how cold it could get. Maybe, this year could finally be our turn! ( For real!)

Weirdly enough, and historically, cold or extreme cold has always followed economic crisis'. 91/92.. 2010.. and now, the big 2022. 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

There is the off chance potential here guys, for a -10 or below widespread night time temps.. If the 9th and 10th onwards goes a certain direction. We are witnessing extra ordinary times.