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Vikos

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Everything posted by Vikos

  1. Aha, so it seems, they can handle it? 14th 00z vs 16th 00z for 24-1-21 Now 25th in comparission today 00z / yesterdays 00z Or lets do it with a 10 days prognosis of 850is for today 6th Jan +10 days I hope you get my point...
  2. Yes, could be that effects will somehow delay. Every SSWE is different, it’s overall a chaotic system, small butterfly effects can cause huge differences in oncoming outputs. Deterministic weather models are just trying to organise this chaos with mathematics and statistics, they do somehow good for 3,4 days but then the quality drops fast, with an unpredictable SSWE outcome even more, one can see this in the verification graphs some see the charts and forget that they are not flat, the atmosphere is 3D with a lot of fluxes, raises drops of air masses etc for example a strong wint
  3. People don't always have to find a conclusion. That is called a discussion. That is what forums are made for πŸ™‚ Let's just end it here and go on with the 18z runs πŸ˜‰ πŸ™‚ A virtual pint from me to those who discussed with me. Cheers! πŸ˜„
  4. And again... I am not in any way frustrated about any outcome here or elsewhere on the planet. And again, you show charts in a "far" distance, also the first is a mean chart. You should do some research on mean or median in statistics. In lager timeframes they often tend to get very diffuse. I get yout point. And you are right. But again, those things did not happend yet, so by now, we don't have a outcome of the SSW.
  5. You show a +246h chart. Serious? Sorry, but that doesn't count for me as it is not resilient in that timeframe. But ok, that is just my point of view. No need to get an anger about it πŸ™‚
  6. Sorry, there are no outcomes yet wich I would consider as an effect of the SSW. So please show me wich ones you actually mean. Patterns are way to unsteady for any solid predictions. I am getting tired of repeating this.
  7. I did not say that SSW was the punch for a modelflip in 2010. But it can be the the impulse for a model flip.
  8. Just not true. It is the position of the displacement, and where you are located at. See the strat thread...
  9. A flip would be a strong Scandi high in the charts of let's say Monday, Tuesday for day 7-9 (no I don't say d10 πŸ˜„ ). Out of nowhere as a effect of the SSW. You never know. + The whole weather system is a chaotic system. NOBODY can ever predict its excact outcome! People seem to forget this as they think that Models calculated by computers with randomized inputs can. Even with a bunch of Master degrees in statistics no one can. It is impossible!
  10. I would not consider this as a direct effect of the SSW. Just to early for...
  11. Mean charts after day 4/5 are rather useless as they get too diffuse .. but... if it is a tradition, why not...
  12. Not quite right, they did flip in short term in 2010 if I remember it the right way...
  13. You show me the effects, please! Show some major (!) outcomes anywhere on the globe today wich are due the effects of that SSW with its long lasting reversal of 10hPa winds. Than we can talk.
  14. Some of you guys don't seem to follow the Strat Thread. Strat is in a real mess right now, warming was now 10 days ago, reflections to Trop are just about to start (+14 days, sometimes even more). Models will pick up major changes when they occur, there is just not enough data for predictions, as the knowledge about influences Strat<->Trop are not fully known yet. To say that winter is over and to moan over some "bad" outputs is not adequate in a (semi) professional synoptics thread, I think. Yet this sensless comparission of 06z/12z runs (or 18z/00z) is a punch in the sto
  15. If it moves to 6/7 we should see a swing to blockings soon in EC outputs...
  16. Well, you live so close the the "hot" sea, what do you except? M-Europe climate is ALWAYS domintated by ATLANTIC REGIME due the gulf stream. Climate changes do the rest (ice coverage, sea ice cover etc). The idea of prolonged ice-cold spells that last over weeks, well, that is history now. I did not have significant winter since years, and I am in the middle of Germany, even farer away from the boiling north sea...
  17. Thanks, updated them Press STRG+F5 for full refresh of this site πŸ˜‰
  18. ECMWF is amazing! Prediction from 10 days ago (UPDATE: charts are +216h now, they updated) Outcome today Considering the really great 10day-performance of ECMWF we have to look at this chart then for the lower Stratosphere (can be mirrored to the upper Troposphere/Tropopause) We see the large displacement of the Vortex is locked down solid until at least the 24th. We are currently in the transition phase in the troposphere towards displacement, which acts on the tropsophere from above in the stratosphere. This goes hand in hand with a decre
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