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Posts posted by Vikos
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6 minutes ago, daz_4 said:
GFS Op is a huge outlier for Central Europe with that cold pool.
Or trendsetter for the new chase? This mild interlude isn’t for long…
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3 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:
towards the end of the month few members toying with the idea of something colder
I think we should pack all teleconnections aside and focus on the main drivers…
so strat looks to fall back into more promising patterns (as they where until now) within the next week. Giving some downwelling time, things can drop fast beginning of February… just keep the faith
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A lot of moaining going on here. Why? Just because this mild interlude? Some will rub their eyes… no confidence in cold spells but mild is rock solid carved in stone?
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My confidence rises that this mild spell isn’t going to be as long as the models predict… next chase starts around 26/27th
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Confucius says learn from the past to know about the future (or something like that)
EC 10 days ago for today
today’s 0 chart
Same for GFS
Today’s chart
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29 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
Max balloon data is 00Z and 12Z
1.6 GB data 00/12z to ~120 MB 06/18z
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19 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
It’s tempting mate!
I will just post in the regionals I think tbh from now on
Come on, don’t be childish, I really enjoy your content you post here, so please, don’t let anyone make you go…
tell you what, in comparison with the wetterzentrale forum this place is like a ponyfarm, over there we fight till blood, it’s like a battlefield between coldies and warmies right now
and still, it’s just weather…
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34 minutes ago, Drifter said:
??
The Spanish Plume Arrives & An Increasing Risk of Thunderstorms
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV
Hot, humid and increasingly unsable air arrives from the south later on today, aka the 'Spanish Plume', so expect high temperatures and humidity and an increasing risk of...Just kidding, but this plunge of „hot air“ in some runs had a little taste of Spain…
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Smells like Spanish Plume
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If you look into the stratosphere, around the 15th/16th January, a significant weakening of the zonal winds in 10 hPa at 60 N is ongoing.
This can be seen as a clear indicator of an SSW.However, there is no indication of a polar vortex split, just a “displacement”.
Nevertheless, this process (“minor warming”) could pave the way for cold phases
over Europe because the westerly wind drift (weakening jet stream) is responding
Then about 7 to 14 days later often subsides and blocking highs cold
Air masses could shovel towards the European continent.
Since mid-October due to westerly weather conditions with lots of wind and rain and mostly
which was characterized by mild temperatures, has now been completely changed. The main cause is a
wedge rising far to the north over the northeast Atlantic, located between 2
powerful long-wave troughs (one over the North American continent, one
over Scandinavia) to the south of Greenland and to the Norwegian Sea
could. This Omega pattern proves to be very robust into the medium term.
Although it gradually shifts somewhat retrogradely, it acts as
Blocking into the lower atmosphere and even leaves the Rossby wave number
go back from the current 6 to 7 to 4 to 5. So the wave patterns move
slower, which could increase the persistence of the block.from German DWD synoptic mid range outlook
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I feel a bit 2010‘ish…
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Still have a SSW in the barrel… some need to calm and chill a bit. 2010 EC had some similar difficulties with placement of H and L…
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7 minutes ago, jamesthemonkeh said:
CFSv2 has those pesky/delightful Iberian heights in February - make of it what you will.
Though a couple of days ago it had much more extensive northern blocking.
Not sure I give it much credence right now, especially with stratospheric goings-on - I wouldn't be surprised to see it flip post-warming, once more. But maybe a cautionary thought for those dreaming of two months of cold. And a bit of hope for those, like myself, who'd love a bit of late February mildness.
I wouldn’t cfs even let take care about my mother in law, so much about trusting it…
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37 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
It is strange that ec sometimes doesn’t handle the 3/5 day as well as other lower res models
I think the Xmas day drop is relative to the forecast at day 5 which would have been the run from the 20th. Could be wrong though
upper PV (un)expectly recovered around xmas maybe this is why we had rather cold prospects the days before with possible white xmas. The PV regained strength, but that’s history now, maybe we are for the FINAL WARMING already…
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German Met Service (DWD) from today explaining MT, ONI, ENSO and how it affects the midrange outlook for Eurozone…
very interesting stuff, please use Google to translate
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32 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
@TEITS is correct btw. In 2010 and 2009 the ecm went on one for 48 hours before quickly coming back to its 240 ideas at 120 and the rest is history!
Just to add this latest gfs run is similar to ouput 48 hours ago! Heights are hugely different in a good way around Greenland. First signs of a climb back towards nirvana?
Yep, this wobbling days before the mighty 2010 from EC is a thing I remember very good. But also have to say, that since then 14 years have passed and EC had some major updates and upgrades, not to mention the capacity of their super computers.
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Still 15th of January plus/minus 1-2 days. Everything good
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Gfs morning runs are always a downgrade to the night runs (at least that’s what I feel)
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
@Harsh Climate
so my prediction seems to be right then