Lloyds32
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Everything posted by Lloyds32
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Think we all new that this week was certainly just normal winter weather, rain for practically all unless you live at elevation.
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Where is your location? Must be the coldest place in North Somerset at your spot.
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Its 3.0C up on Lulsgate, you must be at a even higher location in North Somerset?
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Yes especially in warm Weston. Travel 5 miles inland and it will be different.
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....and every single day there is nothing in the modelling to suggest this. And every single day the meto outlook, which sounds really good, is being pushed back day by day. Soon it will mention March!
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Breakdown? Breakdown of what? Just some normal winter fare from the NW bringing snow to hills in the north, it looks pretty wet and miserable.
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Looks like hardly anything all in all looking at that chart. Also for the midlands north looks good for high ground.
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Give it a day or so..
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Yeah, but it still doesn't change the fact the ground temps are warm, there is no cold air already in place, temps are forecast 4-5 degrees in the south. You may have conditions 'above' conducive to falling sleet/snow, but these events look just wet and miserable. There will be drizzle mixed in, maybe onto top the Mendips there is a better chance, but really this is just a non event for most.
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BBC use another supplier for the data. As you say, Bristol will just be wet, Tuesdays event and Thursday. I have no idea what the fuss is about. Its just NOT cold. 4-5 degrees...its mental on this forum.
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Looks pretty wet in the Bristol area Tues into Wednesday. Simple really...its just not cold enough.
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Last year end of Feb/March?
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Hey...that's what the chart I quoted showed...I didn't post it. All depends on the track and whether the cold air can be brought in. Some locations will do ok, but its fine margins. Its chilly yes, not that cold.
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Ok fair point. I live near Bristol, not expecting anything. Waiting February...in line with the meto
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Looks pretty wet in Bristol on 'that' chart.
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You have missed the point.
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I have absolutely no faith in that outlook. The 9th Feb is 15 days away, let alone up until 23 Feb. There will need to a massive turn around in modelling for the meto's 'cold or very cold'. I will just wait for that line to be gradually removed.
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Certainly nothing good about 168 for snow prospects. Mild air mixed out. Its what the model shows.
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Happy? How could I from a cold perspective, not sure your point. At 168 we don't want the LP it that position.
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Ouch 168 ECM
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If I had a pound for every time someone posted about how good the mean is.....ha
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..Or March? ECM absolutely shocking.
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Nothing has changed, its the normal strong Azores high and continuous low pressure south of Greenland. PM air giving some sleet and snow to the hills in the north etc. Certainly no sign of real cold, just normal winter fare, with temps I guess slightly below average. No ice days, no lying snow, just damp coldish, wet weather with sunny spells in between.
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? Hm. Ensembles, Clusters, Anomalies have been in agreement for cold spells on many occasions, but the operational runs just back off or show some sort of tease. Lots of promise this winter in the background signals, even a SSW but nothing yet to write home about.
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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Lloyds32 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like to me the ECM has the pressure sunk over the U.K. Looks like my feeling was right. I have noticed the change since yesterday mornings ECM. Cold uppers pushed away at 144 and gone at 168.
