mushymanrob

the question is... will todays shower cloud break up enough to allow a clear/ish view tonight?

think it was better in the south, agreed about june, but july and august werent bad, dry, warm, but in derby no heatwave and hot sun.

The CET may be above average atm, but we are entering a protracted period on a Northwesterly sourced flow... despite the warm SSTs in the North Atlantic this month may well finish below average... anyway, time will tell.

It could also move South.. thats the beauty of the "mean" charts over that period, they iron out "upgrades" and "downgrades" giving a more balanced view.

These charts dont make good viewing 6 - 10 8 - 14 increases troughing For any warmth/heat by early August these charts would need to be 100% wrong, which in ten years ive never seen. Doesnt mean it cant happen... but...

rewa has them as well as lindenburg... most of northern europe is cloudy although its clearing here

3/5 confidence for days 8-14 is higher than most for that timeframe and is consistent. NO model suite is ever certain at that range

Ive gone through my old pictures.. i can say ive not seen anything past this date, although theres a few out to the 20th that might have had them, partially hidden by cloud.

Yes there was a decent morning display up there..

Every sign in deep FI of an improvement keep getting shunted back The GFS mean EPS There charts not only are consistent and agree , but are a million miles away from any pattern that would bring warmth/heat. To me the outlook for the rest on the Month suggests below average unsettled.

cloudy....

No we arent, The output isnt far off normal . This month is unlikely to rank amongst the wettest Julys which is what we would expect from a strong Westerly. Julys of 07, 08, 09, 12, 17 were all very wet, and ill wager most of not all were Westerly based julys

for what its worth, imho the response was a little ott, i didnt get anything out of your post that was anything but an honest opinion and one based on reality... LRFs are hard to get right.. BUT .. i do admire and respect those who are trying to produce them. Meanwhile - theres no sign of any change towards anything warm/hot on the EPS out towards the end of the Month... Im not saying anyone is wrong, im just commenting that SO FAR theres no sign of a change, a change that may well come of this source (that i find is usually pretty accurate)

i think rewa was very low on the horizon, so maybe a low northern display here?.. but either there wasnt, there was cloud or no one bothered to look! (like me) id prefer to see those echoes later in the day.. early evening. As for tonight.. reckon cloud will be an issue looking at the radars

really?.... that surprises me..

noaa are bang in line with those charts

Giving up. Absolutely no sign and its all but dark.

Last nights had started by now and i can see no sign, although it is rather cloudy right of capella and on the horizon

Good luck! Quite cloudy here, ill only get partial views of anything high. No chance of horizon huggers... bugger..

Depends how far West they stretch... morning almost cert

lindenburg

They are NLCs, they are visible across Northern Europe... Rewa

i have no idea where advanced picture options are... lol.. yes its a samsung s22 ultra.. found it, turned raw on meanwhile, .... nlcs seem to be coming into view across northern europe

Dont think so... i downloaded it to my pc, its there that i saved it as jpg.

Last nights sequence, between 23.20 and 1200 not happy with these, my last phone took better shots... got tripod n all...