mushymanrob

indeed, which is why im not buying the gfs's scandinavian high/cold easterly no matter how often one is suggested. we have seen that when the noaa anomaly charts and the gfs clash in that timeframe, the gfs is nearly always wrong.

cloud cloud bloody cloud ruined my chances of seeing the aurora last night... grrrr...

Bored of this benign weather now, cloudy grey skies, temps on the cool side, outlooks poor, not exactly winter but not embracing spring either. Time for some warmth.

not overly wet either, mostly quite dry.... i dont look upon the current charts as ones that lack early warmth so much as ones that doesnt return us to winter weather which is very common in march... if we pick up the westerly upper flow the noaa 8-14 dayer suggests then march looks like 'averageing out'... with no real extremes of warmth or cold.

Not so sure about that sir, whilst warmth and sun might not have been overly evident so far march has been pretty normal, and could have been alot worse.

a pleasant calm week?... luck will play a part, as spoiling cloud could well rob us of any pleasant sunshine, but at least its looking dry. the old double edged sword will raise its head too... sunny days could lead to frosty nights. i note that the current expected 'uppers' arent too mild so it could be chilly. note the noaa 8-14 day chart suggests a flattening out of the upper air flow this would suggest the gfs 00z 's fairly atlantic dominated run would most likely verify a snapshot chart in all, pretty normal, average, unexciting march weather, with the usual march mix.

Indeed the gfs 12z is about as good as we can expect in mid march, although cloud might be an issue if the high sits just to our west?

not on the bbc.... i believe the bbc employ people from the met office, or who have had training. itv employ presenters.

hope youre right karl, but i reckon we will end up with something in between. the outlooks a right mess, i dont think ive ever seen it so confused with little agreement.

yep, i agree, there is huge uncertainty and what is 'likely' this morning, probably wont be by this evening. i like trying to see what lies beyond the 5 day timeframe, but currently it looks very confused to me. meanwhile its looking rather 'normal', with some very nice times when the strengthening sun is out

the outlook must be viewed as uncertain... viewing the posts made over the last few days what appeared 'likely' or 'certain' just a few runs ago have now gone. personally, im abit surprised the expected scandinavian high isnt expected to sit there too long. i have many memories of scandinavian highs in spring sitting there for weeks... spoiling spring with grey chilly boring weather. but we have on offer some pretty much ordinary, normal, weather for mid march, very nice in the strengthening sun if after today we get much.

A clean arctic blast is nice in summer too, suns strong, fresh air, very pleasant.

Not really getting the excitement for that karl. You might be supposing that further on that cold air might sweep across the country... But im not so sure. the cold airflow looks to be heading southeastward, so the general thrust of that cold would miss alot of the uk. Meanwhile england looks very pleasant at t240!

Cheers ido.

i dont pretend to be very knowlegable, in fact, im distingtly lightweight compared to many on here with little depth of knowlege that others posess. the models all point to some sort of eastern block and high pressure domination. yesterday i mentioned a second phantom atlantic low that seemingly appeared out of nowhere for weds/thurs. and now the latest fax suggests another for friday? originally high pressure was supposed to re-establish itself after todays cold front... then that idea was dropped as a shortwave developed (mon/tues), but had high pressure building behind that and going on to dominate. yesterday morning there was another (second) low for wednesday/thursday now expected to cross us as well, relegating tuedays high to a transitory ridge. but yesterday a dominant high pressure was supposed to build in after that one (thursday onwards), and link with high to our east. this morning theres a third system lining up for friday before the ever pushed back decisive high builds over us (now pushed back even further to the weekend) dont know what im missing here, but after what was supposed to be a high pressure dominated week ahead, we are looking at a series of low pressure systems bringing an unsettled (but average) week. with all this inaccuracy in the short term, how can the models possibly get a decent handle on what is fi high pressure blocking to our east? it appears to me that there could well be blocking to our east, but without one of these mid system ridges building, might well fail to bring any settled dry warm or cold easterly sourced weather.

Cheers for that. Indeed ido might well be proven closer to the mark, but as its not a competition i dont care! Its the way these two troughs have appeared out of nothing that caught my eye, at the expense of previously predicted high pressure build. That suggests short term uncertainty? Anyway, time will tell.

i have old chap.... several times, the stratus-fest that suits no one (surely no one likes that?) and this mornings models strongly point to at least a short lived easterly spell if not longer. once established they are very hard to shift. the ecm @ t240 (00z) suggests something quite bitter but thats probably the most extreme version of what might occur. the gfs (00z) @ t240 another 'vote' for a scandinavian block, but orientated so as to bring southeasterlies, not as cold, but still rather cloudy? even off a dry continent... the anomalies for c t240 .... support what their respective op's predict... but the noaa doesnt agree with either.... so without consistent agreement all that can be gleamed is that there likely to be high pressure somewhere to our northeast - east. but with the follow up high pressure that was supposed to build behind tomorrows cold front failing to build, allowing low pressure in on monday, and the apparent failure of pressure rise behind that to establish a settled spell as predicted 24 hours ago - (there is, this morning, another atlantic system appeared for wednesday) then theres great uncertainty even as close as 4 days. . to me its looking like its deteriorating into a more unsettled regime, with expected pressure rises being restricted to 24 hour ridges. the noaa 8-14 dayer would be more in line with a more mobile pattern?... (or is that wishful thinking? lol) edit.... just seen ido's post which kind of suggests the opposite to what ive just posted.... great this model watching isnt it? the way different people can interpret things differently its all good.

i reckon the few who post here sum up the outlook very well, and with rather uninteresting weather expected there seems little point in repeating what others have more elequently posted!

Snow? I see nothing there that would produce snow, pressures to high, no instability, nothing to produce precipitation. On the other hand it would be great for summer heat!

bloody gorgeous here today

id have thought we are overdue for a steamer... its been nine years now since the grass browned off due to drought stress. ok the last two summers werent bad, and both had a decent spell... but they were no 95, 03, 06, 83, 75, 76, etc. of course the southeast got more then the rest of us..

Finding it amusing that in your opinion peoples expectations are lowering? well mine arent, and im not at all dispondent, im happy enough with mainly dry, tepidly warm, lengthening days, blooming spring flowers and abundant birdsong even if theres some cloud and a little rain. sounds to me like normal early springtime weather....

well done to the ecm who was the first to spot the shortwave now due for tuesday. but it shouldnt pose many problems, its expected track is a rapid sw/ne over out northwest. so some rain, the southeast looks driest. ecm 00z, gfs 00z, go for pressure rise wednesday onwards but disagree as to its evolution and position. ecm still going for a scandinavian high.... whilst the gfs suggests a westerly flow, albeit mild at times, and goes on to build the high over us. im struggling to find an excuse to dismiss the ecms insistance of an (unwanted) scandinavian high, but it did pick up on the scandi high two years ago, and suggested its development several times before it actually happened. as the anomaly charts arent really in much agreement, confidence is low. however... as things stand, theres nothing to worry about, there might be not much early warmth (after the weekend), but nothing overly cold - even if we get the ecm's high (sunny days, frosty nights)

I wouldnt be so sure, weve seen this recently with the scandinavian high and easterlies suggestion that the gfs dallied with before dropping it. Whilst the outlook might not have the mlb the ecm was championing yesterday, the gfs is overall closer the the anoms which still suggest pressure will be more high influenced then low, especially in the south. But.... Even if the ecm is right, its still not a bad picture for early spring.

nobody expects it to be THAT 'warm' surely?... only a few favoured areas MIGHT get temps in the mid teens on saturday... temps 10 - 14c generally for early march is very acceptable, we lose the cold uppers, the strongest of the breezes, ill be happy with these conditions until mid april!