mushymanrob
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Posts posted by mushymanrob
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16 hours ago, Scorcher said:
It doesn't look at all like we're going to get the traditional pressure build for the kids going back to school-
Actually, thats a myth... theres no evidence to support high pressure builds in early september and more then there is at any other time of the year.
I did a cursory check on the charts for the last 30 years
- 11/30 held the same pattern (from August)
- 13/30 didnt improve, in fact they got worse
- 6/30 did improve
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10 hours ago, CharlieBear9 said:
Doesn't it.
I must say I've no idea how you can recall weather conditions at different times so easily.
Unless I can associate it with a particular event like a holiday or a social function of some kind I struggle to remember much beyond last week.
10 hours ago, Sunny76 said:I work outside some of the time for my job. I tend to remember very warm or cold periods quite easily.
Sunny is spot on... ive worked outside for 50 years now and you do remember and fix (alongside current music) in my head the more extreme conditions at certain times when doing a variety of jobs.
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1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:
Interesting to note the lack of 1956 in the sin bin. Presumably it had a very much better spring.
Same I guess with 1974 which is frequently quoted as a poor year.
1 hour ago, B87 said:July 1980 was one of the coldest Julys on record at Heathrow, narrowly ahead of 1954 and 1965. It was a dreadful month. Those temps would be decent for May, but would even be below average in September!
1956 and 1980 both had sunny dry Mays which lifted them up my index, 1974 comes in 21st worst.
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1 minute ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
. We also need @mushymanrobhere I feel currently to post the anomoly charts.
no you dont, they are freely available and most of you can read them! lol ... they are pointing towards a very ordinary average spell from next weekend onwards
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owing to my 1981 error,
1977 - 799
takes its 20th worst position.. -
53 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:
all i can say is 1981?
Yes found my mathematical error... scrub 1981, it finished just below halfway point, probably whereabouts 2023 will finish,
Just now, Summer8906 said:Should 1981 really be bottom? With that fine August? I realise some of the other months were a bit rubbish - but surprised.
see above
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19 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:
all i can say is 1981?
that might be an error on my part..... i was rushing.. ill check now
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OK, ive just completed my spring/summer combined index, this is based upon the relative values of temps, rainfall and sunshine taken from Oxford and Sutton Bonnington with some adjustments to cater for area averages. this is from 1930 as theres no sunshine records from Oxford before then.
The values are combined from my Spring and Summer indexes, although tbh my Spring one is "mark 1" and needs to be updated which wont be done until next year. (busy on Autumn and September indexes atm)
The top 20 are
2022 - 1424
1976 - 1309
1995 - 1279
1990 - 1274
2011 - 1250
1949 - 1213
2020 - 1205
1933 - 1197
2003 - 1182
1959 - 1154
2018 - 1152
2009 - 1138
1940 - 1131
1975 - 1113
1989 - 1096
1952 - 1091
2015 - 1090
2013 - 1084
1955 - 1049
1934 - 1047
The bottom 20 are2007 - 795
2004 - 782
1965 - 780
1941 - 777
1951 - 775
1936 - 772
1971 - 771
1998 - 769
1958 - 760
1988 - 752
1985 - 751
1987 - 736
1954 - 731
1968 - 724
1948 - 714
1932 - 662
2012 - 654
1969 - 623
1931 - 605
(1981 - 595 ... might be wrong)
Oh, and 2023 will not make the bottom 20, but be somewhere between there and half way... so bottom half.-
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21 hours ago, BruenSryan said:
Getting back on track to this thread... I had a look at the UK data and used the Manchester summer index formula to calculate statistically the best and worst spring/summer combos on record. This is the data I found, can go back as far as 1910.
The formula: 10 x [(mean max of summer) +(total sunshine)/67 - (rain days/8)]
I used the current August scaled up estimate from Roostweather for sunshine in 2023 and for rain days, I used the 1991-2020 average so 2023 will have a fair margin of error.
The best spring/summer combo years:
1995 262
2022 258
1976 257
2003 248
1955 247
1984 245
2018 243
1911 243
1989 242
1949 241
1990 240
The worst:
1912 148
1920 149
1985 151
1924 153
1931 153
1979 156
1916 157
1927 159
1963 159
1954 161
The worst this century is 2012 with 176.
2023 is much higher at 208. Not that bad. In fact, that's almost bang on the 1991-2020 average of 209. Would be the lowest since 2016. Recency bias and heightened expectations after such a good 2022?
Note this is the national UK average and does not account for regional variation.
where did you get the formula from?.... ive created my own based on central england, but havnt merged spring/summer yet.
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56 minutes ago, Don said:
Perhaps he's just taking a break?
half way through an argument?...
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59 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Looks like for September the jet stream is finally migrating north for the 3rd that is and that we will have stronger heights over Europe according to the GFS 6Z.
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204
no sign of that here
here
here
or here
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15 hours ago, Don said:
Do you mean Sunny76 has left Netweather, or this thread?
well unusually hes not been on for 3 days now.... make of that what you will as hes a daily visitor. but i did suggest several times the he stopped digging....
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Looks like Sunny76 has left us... well its a pity if he has, but you cannot come here and make outrageous comments that have no statistical support and expect to be respected for it.
In the title of the thread it says "on record" , so to prove a point we need to view the records, the stats... he was ignoring them-
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17 hours ago, Bristle Si said:
The CET argument's been done to death over last few weeks. Firstly, it only represents Central England and secondly, because the nights weren't overly cold it hid the fact that many days had well below average daytime temps.
The CET is the most accurate way of comparing year on year... being away from the coast itll give a better idea of the mean temperature. It isnt foolproof but its the best we can do. Of course accurate local records from anywhere including outside the CET zone will give a more accurate account for that locale.
The question is, how do we use temperatures to compare Summer?... the daily mean? or the daily mean maximum?... surely the daily mean is best because itll allow for cool/tropical nights , after all, Summer isnt about daytime!-
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41 minutes ago, SunSean said:
Being pretty curious about this, I took a look at Heathrow sunshine figures from the period of June 21st- August 10th as this is where the bulk of our dull Summer weather lied for 2023 and to see how it compares to other years from 2006. Summer for me is determined by how much sunshine we get and I know we're all different and some want heat or no rain etc but focusing on just sun duration from best to worst for 21Jun-10Aug-
1. 2018 (493)
2. 2014 (392)
3. 2022 (387)
-. 2013 (387)
5. 2006 (382)
6. 2020 (329)
7. 2015 (327)
8. 2019 (324)
9. 2011 (308)
10. 2010 (301)
11. 2007 (297)
12. 2009 (291)
13. 2008 (282)
14. 2023 (280)
15. 2016 (275)
16. 2012 (270)
17. 2017 (264)
18. 2021 (238)
So, for that period, 2023 is in the bottom 5 and very similar to 2008 but still not as dull as 2021, who is in a league of its own at the bottom for that period! 2018 in a league of its own at the top! Surprised to see 2015 quite high.
But cherry picking the period when this year was dull means nothing... lets see what the sunshine levels are for the Summer... June, July, August. After all most Summers have a dull phase. I suspect theyll be in the average range..
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10 hours ago, CreweCold said:
What’s the point in those Hovmoller plots if they’re changing as often as the Det run and ensemble pack?
They dont..... the pattern they show is pretty consistent, they showed high pressure becomind dominant on the 16th peaking on the 20th over a week ago and thats exactly what they are showing today.
All models at that range are liable to change, whats the point in them then?..
Im very happy with the way they are performing, true the detail can modify but overall they are picking out the coming trends very well .-
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Just now, Sunny76 said:
It’s happened before yes, but we are just judging this summer as it is. It’s been terrible, and I find it hard for anyone to defend it.
The people trying to challenge me on this argument are clearly coldies, and people who enjoy summer daytime highs of less than 24c. That’s fine, but it’s just very poor for July and August.
A decent sunny summer isn’t too much to ask for.
STOP DIGGING!....... Im no coldie, i love heat!!! The statistics will show that this summer is average..... thats where its heading.... THAT is a fact.
2 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:Keep talking mate. I’ve lost interest lol.
June is one month, not the whole summer. July and August are part of summer, last time I checked!
25c in London, what are you moaning for?
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1 minute ago, Sunny76 said:
Stats don’t mean anything, if it’s been dull for the majority of the summer period. Most people will tell you it’s been a bad summer.
LOL... since when have YOU spoken for "most people"?... youve been ripped apart on here by fellow weather enthusiasts... stats mean everything, they PROVE what conditions have been like.
STOP DIGGING!-
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2 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:
Summers 1983 and 84, also 89 were far better than anything from June 2023.
This summer was below par for me personally. Too many weeks of dull miserable weather, and it happened in the peak of the summer.
July 2013 was brilliant, August 2013 was lovely down in London. It’s regional though, because I didn’t think 21 was great, and others really enjoyed that summer.
STOP DIGGING...... you are talking utter rubbish ... try using statistics, not memory, memory is flawed and you live in the past as 99% of the posts you create are about the past. You imagine everything modern is not as good as what it was in the past - you are wrong when it comes to the weather... opinion doesnt count, facts do, back up your claims with stats. but stop digging!
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On 15/08/2023 at 13:14, Sunny76 said:
A warm or hot June won’t mean anything if July and august that follow are poor. Most people will agree with me. It’s just a fact.
if its a "fact" then you could supply actual data to support that claim.
please feel free to view the data thats freely available online, however i can tell you now that with the current CET at 16.4, julys at 16.1 and junes at 17, this Summer is heading for a CET of 16.5c which would rank it 32nd/364 .... -
1 hour ago, Nick L said:
As I've said before, it's like labelling the winter of 2010/11 dreadful from a coldies perspective.
There has been a 3 week spell in July which was dreadful, no getting away from that. But June was exceptional, you will struggle to get a better June than what we had. Now we're into a decent spell of pleasantly warm weather in the summer holidays. Anyone claiming that this summer is anywhere near one of the worst needs a reality check.
I think that the bad weather that coincided with the weekends has also skewed peoples perceptions of Summer 2023.
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On 15/08/2023 at 13:16, Sunny76 said:
Summer 23 is just as bad as 2007 and 12. I would argue it’s even worse than 12. At least 12 had a hot last week of July and some decent early August weather, but on balance 2012 had a terrible June period.
There’s no getting away from it, despite the warming climate, this summer in the U.K. has been one of the worst.
Nonsense.... we had a record breaking June, and whilst July rivalled 07 and 12, this month isnt bad.
Summer 2023 will end up in the "average" range....-
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Just now, TwisterGirl81 said:August has not been average for many, for here in Devon we have already received over half of our rainfall, max temp is running at 0.9c below and we've had just over 25% average sunshine at nearly midway point of August. And that is on the back of a very poor July and poor spring, we had 6 weeks of beautiful weather here from Mid may throughout most of June but that doesn't make a good spring and summer when the rest of it was really poor....
It's looking looking like we have some nice days upcoming but yet again we have a breakdown over part of the weekend. I can only speak for where I am in the south but we have not had a fully settled sunny warm weekend in like 6 or 7 weeks when this is the only time many can enjoy it, that is poor to me.
Youve had half your rainfall halfway through the month?.. thats average then surely?
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The Hovmoller chart from the ECM suggests high pressure domination from tomorrow until the 25th.... it doesnt make much of the "breadown" on Friday/Saturday, see the anomaly to our West doesnt effect the East so much. Compare that one with todays... so a reapeat of today this weekend isnt likely.
It is still suggesting average conditions by the bank holiday but so far not as bad as today.
this chart doesnt rule rain out, but it should pass/be light (outside thunderstorms) but i doubt itll pick up such features.
But if you want to understand what this chart is saying, veiw the current (00z) EPS sequence because i think that run illustrates exactly what this hovmoller is showing..
EPS Model – 500mb Height Anomaly for Northern Hemisphere | Tropical Tidbits
WWW.TROPICALTIDBITS.COMEPS model forecast of 500mb Height Anomaly for Northern Hemisphere-
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Model discussion highlights
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Actually, thats a myth... theres no evidence to support high pressure builds in early september and more then there is at any other time of the year.
I did a cursory check on the charts for the last 30 years
- 11/30 held the same pattern (from August)
- 13/30 didnt improve, in fact they got worse
- 6/30 did improve
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99056-model-output-discussion-mid-summer-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4911596