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mushymanrob

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Everything posted by mushymanrob

  1. chances of a repeat of 76 was never on. we would need a year of well below average rainfall and a previous hot summer to repeat 76. a 95 style summer though is very much alive. its highly unlikely that this will be the only hot spell.
  2. i was employed by the council in 76, so my wages were safe, lol. if the grass browns off now - i dont care, im drawing a pension, so its not a disastrous or hard hitting financially as 1995 was - but even then half of my income was contract, so again, weatherproof. 2012 wasnt disastrous, it was just unpleasant as long wet growth = harder work in unpleasant conditions. yep, im getting a 1995 vibe about this summer too bring it on!
  3. may and early june 70 was scorching, there was one bit when the sky turned red, you could look at the sun , my first memery of saharan dust. fair play, i stand corrected although in my defence i wasnt around for most of those summers lol.
  4. tbh i dont know... maybe ive forgotten them, i cannot remember a week long hot spell though in those years. i think (like last year) there were possibly 1-2 day hot bits.
  5. you missed out 76, 90, too..lol. they had early hot spells before a hot dry summer. i cannot think of a time when we had a hot end to june, then nothing else. of course this isnt a 'thing', an undeniable rule, and this could be the only hot spell we get, but imho its unlikely.
  6. the good news is that imho this is only the first course, lol, i fully expect, based on past hot summers and no hint of a pattern change, that the main course will emerge by mid july when a lengthy hot spell will surpass this on. it must be remembered that even in 76, 83, 95 etc it wasnt 'hot' every day for 2 months! (or longer), there were periods of less sunny, less hot, spells
  7. noaa charts suggest a slackening of the high pressure into july. a gentle westerly upper flow with pressure still on the +ive side of neutral. looks to me like the hot spell will fizzle out (as opposed to a thundery breakdown) as a westerly draft takes over, lowering temps, (but still warm) with some more unsettled conditions. the usual caveat - wetter windier cooler in the northwest with the southeast hanging on to the hottest, driest conditions. the warm dry theme is set to continue, with another lengthier high pressure hot spell starting in about early/mid july, if the long wave pattern repeats. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php
  8. FANTASTIC WEEK AHEAD! and if this is all we get, its still makes it a better summer then 11/12 previous.
  9. mushymanrob

    Noctilucent Clouds Season 2018

    where were these observed?
  10. if people dont like heat, why do so many of us chose to holiday in the heat?... ive never heard of people holidaying in a frozen place simply to 'enjoy' the cold! (they go for winter sports, not for the cold per-se)
  11. mushymanrob

    Noctilucent Clouds Season 2018

    hi, have you got a link to that spaceweather site please? if theres a way of predicting when we can see these it would help. ps...ive seen pics on facebook from north york moors of them from last night, frustratingly!
  12. fair play sir we are long overdue for a dry summer, (dry doesnt always mean hot , thinking 1979 for eg) , although the southeast has 'browned off' quite regularly in recent years , the rest of us hasnt. so tbh i believe the models suggesting some sort of continued high pressure domination.
  13. if you had been following them, youd see that despite a mean upper westerly flow, they had consistently suggested rising pressure. they might not be the first to pick up on a new pattern, but they are the most accurate. who cares about being 'first'?... give me accuracy anyday and what matters if an accurate pattern is shown at 7 days or 14?
  14. mushymanrob

    Noctilucent Clouds Season 2018

    NOTHING. im already hearing reports of them last night, some stunning pics. i stayed out from 11pm until midnight when it was all but dark. sat on a high vantage point with a clear view of the northern horizon. all i can conclude is that derby is too far south.
  15. indeed, only that came 6 weeks later then this one, and the north sea is still cold. the current modelling including todays noaa suggest a slack easterly . personally im not happy about that, we had similar in 2013 and we 'enjoyed' a cloudy cool weekend in the middle of that heatwave. just a few runs ago the runs were suggesting a thundery breakdown over next weekend, that option is off the table this evening. cant see anything near 30c off an easterly, except perhaps in the far west. and north sea cloud is likely to spoil thing imho. the latest 6-10 dayer
  16. mushymanrob

    Noctilucent Clouds Season 2018

    think ill try staying up tonight, if i can stay sober (need to travel for best views), cool clear skies, should produce?...
  17. but we have had those... mixed winters with periods of mild/cold, settled/stormy wet/dry.. ok not much snow recently unless you count march (which is technically spring).. last winter wasnt overly mild, in fact wasnt it below average?.
  18. i dont know m8, i dont live there... maybe those countries met offices might have?.
  19. you work 24/7?.... nope thought not, so how can you acclimatise whe you work 8 hours shifts (presumably) 5 days a week (presumably). the point is that people who DO live in extreme heat/cold, DO acclimatise to it. in previous heatwaves where ive worked in 30c+ temps in the sun (with dirt and insects) you do get used to it. thats not the same as your conditions where after work youre back into normal conditions.
  20. what? i have no idea what you are looking at! as ever, people are looking at 1 run and believe it will verify in full.... IT WONT! especially beyond day 5. the overall developing picture is one of serious high pressure dominance and at this time of the year, it means HEAT. i totally agree with the poster who said "who cares whether its 30c and sunny or 25c and sunny ".... its HOT! and dry. just how hot and who will get which temps are still to be determined. for some of us this will be the best summer spell for 5 years, and possibly 12 years. id be shocked if this will be the only one we get too, although its possible, but theres no sign at all of a pattern change away from some sort of high pressure dominance. i fully expect that after next weeks hot spell fizzles out, possibly by early july, there will be an even greater, longer lasting one, because that sort of pattern is how great hot summers have unfolded in the past. john is right about water issues too, there will soon be requests to cut down on water use and hosepipe bans will start to be introduced. there are c10 more weeks of high summer to get through and IF theres no major pattern change, water will start to become short. the outlook is warm/very warm/hot and mainly dry (outside any thundery outbreaks). at long last.
  21. depends what your idea of a 'proper' winter is..
  22. nope, dont be silly, neither has anyone else here. but even so, you would aclimatise , because there ARE people living in extreme heat in the world.
  23. i sometimes wonder if people have short memories of have never lived through a 'long hot summer'. you get used to it... hot becomes the norm, pretty much like cold is every winter (normal cold) . i dunno, i always feel the first cold of winter far more then later cold. ive felt that with summer warmth too.. one things certain....moaning about it wont change a damn thing! lol. ps i worked outdoors through the long hot summers of 75, 76, 83, 89, 90, 95, 03... etc.
  24. what john said was spot on.... thats what those charts were showing what you said was spot on... those charts didnt predict a 5 day heatwave 14 days in advance. that doesnt make them wrong, it means they were uncertain and only jumped on board, so to speak, when it was more likely. to me its not about who spots what first, but who spots it correctly first personally, i expected this sudden change and said so on my daily local blog. because when you follow these charts you get used to how they act, and they can be behind the ops sometimes, this was one time. but overall they do iron out the more bullish, fanciful, fantasy island paths the ops take at the timeframe they refer too. they work for me, as they do very much nearly all the time get the mean upper flow bang on. but as john said, they are falible, as all model suits are. tbh theres so many ways of trying to untangle whats likely we all have our favoured methods. im a huge fan of this way, because they do iron out the vagaries of the ops.
  25. i disagree about no suggestion of any high pressure building. there has been a gradual build of pressure for a while now, but not strong enough to develop a large pressure build. i actually mentioned this some time ago. the anomaly charts rarely send you up the garden path, and whilst the gfs can sometimes spot a change before the anomaly charts do, like this time, its fi predictions are proven inaccurate time and time again. its extremely rare for a large pattern change within 6 days to occur without the noaa charts picking up on this. so i for one will carry on viewing them first, then ill see which op run is closest, that way is the best way of discovering the most likely pattern we will get in the 6-14 day period. no garden paths, no false hope, just reality.
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