[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Cold slightly more south midday xmas

 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Hello

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

22 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Yes, substantial, notable and huge downgrades are unfolding at speed with every passing model suite for those not right near the east coast. At this rate even the likes of Leicester are going to be wondering what all the fuss is about. 

If these were Northerly winds, this thread would be calling 'Winter is over' - as London might see a flake, it's all stations go.

Really average event being signposted for a vast swathe of the entire nation as we speak.

Certainly not a widespread notable SNOWY event that some have been discussing. 

Huge disappointment after 2 entire weeks of micro analysis and what felt like 1 million hurdles to jump.

Let's hope for some later upgrades.

GFS Has the winds easterlies for the northern half and more NE’ly for southern parts. very good for setting streamers up

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

21 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Actually there's a warm sector far to close to Kent for my liking in that, everyone else should be fine though.

The placement of that low will crucial, it’s been varying run to run 

let’s see what 12zs bring 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Meet corona man lovely day today 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

11 minutes ago, Beano said:

Aperge looks inline with the radar

Seems like Aprege is behind as well with the front and the angle it’s at 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Decent dusting in Wembley 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Arome is one hour too slow according to current radar but stands different to UKV 18z

And the Met Office app gets fed data from the hourly UKV i think ( might be wrong ) so don't take it to heart as this is cleearly a nowcast situation and out of our hands

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Loving the Positivity in this thread having a right old chuckle lol

And you know what we just dont care anymore and most will be happy sticking their noses to the window pane watching some big fat fluffy flakes lol

Let's all agree whatever happens in the morning, we should be happy that we got a frontal event to chase and monitor this winter

Good luck to all for some juicy fat flakes

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

24 minutes ago, MAF said:

ok folks, not to out do @TomSE12 but whats your thoughts -

time

location

type of ppn

amount

just for fun

 

Im in Wembley London at a height of 49m asl

Time- 7am

Type of ppn- 0.001cm of snow and then flooded

 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

Crumbs of something to hope for? 

Reminds me of Bella

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Midlands looks like a big hit here!!did the gfs 00z para show the same?

 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

ECM 12z ensemble mean looks good to me.

t192:

t216:

t240:

Good means overall!

+192 we can see the high go up into Greenland, a strong signal for that

+216 High is well into Greeland but the block looks in general in the mean , possibly highlighting the uncertainity on how much strength the high will have and also how far north it will go into Greenland

+240 High seems 'fatter' , wider range of possibilites for the High, it could end up being too west or even east 

Good ECM flip tho overall, we can now hope to continue this to atleast Friday with minor tweaks and changes, and have UKMO AND GFS somewhat similar to ECM or vice versa

Have a nice evening and all the best for the pub run later

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

2 minutes ago, Daniel said:

@Paulany idea when gfsp will start? 

Normally 10-15 min after GFSP

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFS 12Z for 207h and 216h so 19th / 20th.

This is so much harder to read lmao, but im assuming thats a low acros the UK and a high in the atlantic,

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

we wait and we wait and wait

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Lovely 6z some differences but those will come and go this week 

till Friday we should focus on getting this theme and trend nailed down , as there’s still lots to play for 

onto 12z

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Will that mean nothing to pump up the Greenland height in this run?

Amplifies faster !

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Low south of Greeland just gone on 6z

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

Control

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

can i get excited yet

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

My fav is p17

hopefully some good outputs tomorrow 

gn all 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Mean 18z

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Genuine question!!!!is there any chance we should be looking east between 144 and 216 hours and maybe even further on just incase a stronger scandi high pops up instead?

scenes when we end up for a BFTE, instead of from the north LOL