Porto

Eye is pretty much inbetween Torquay and Plymouth atm

In terms of what the models are showing, this system actually appears to be further west atm than predicted. Im not sure if this means we may see a northwards turn further west, and thus bring more of the SE into play, or if its just gonna play out a little bit slower than the models had previously.

Thats just the visualisation not being sure what to do with the stretched out center. This is more accurate:

To be fair, it just happened to show lower winds at that exact point I took a screenshot...

UKMO high res again still more or less on the same track, Im worried by the small spots of up to 70mph winds that keep getting surprisingly far inland in the SE, I dunno if I should interpret it as potential short bursts of strong winds or just general model "noise". With only a yellow warning inland, that might catch people off guard if it does occur. I do expect some red warnings to occur across the SW and coasts of the S and SE potentially soon though from the Met based off of these charts. EDIT: The Channel Islands potentially having 120mph would also be absolutely wild

Most models keeping the general track for their 06z runs, maybe a touch further north for those in the east but certainly keeping it mostly to the coast/far SE corner still. I did however notice that on the high res version of the UKMO model that a small band of heavier winds have been showing up for a few runs as the storm goes off into the North Sea, this time however its started peaking around 70mph in a thin corridor over Reading/London. We don't have many high res models to look at, so this is realistically the only model showing it so far, so take it with a grain of salt. But interesting its picked up such a relatively small feature.

GFS has indeed pulled further south in its main run for the 06z, but notably its ensemble members actually have more northern runs than before with the storm swinging up earlier, putting more of the east in play. Hopefully they start to line up a little bit more as the low starts to properly interact with the jetstream today

Its in Knots, noueds being Knots in French.

I wouldn't look too deeply at forecasts this far out, I generally find they moderate forecasts until closer to the time due to uncertainty. Generally all models are still going for -some- kinda low across the UK still on Wednesday, but it does seem they're become further apart in terms of actual track. I think its mostly going to come down to how the jet stream is being modelled, as its a bit different per model. - ICON seems to have the storm riding the northern part of the jet stream and then being pulled around by the low's just NW of us. - GFS has the jet pointed more towards the south, and thus taking the storm further south. - ECM is somewhat in-between, but the latest run (06z) doesn't go far enough to know for sure. - UKV doesn't have publicly available models showing the Atlantic as far as im aware, but looks inbetween the ECM and ICON. The disturbance that's currently being tracked by the NHC in the southern North Atlantic is an influence too, all models are drastically different in dealing with that, may become easier once it actually turns into a tropical storm

18z GFS very similar, I'm actually a little bit surprised how consistent it has been considering its a full 5 days away still. ECM 12z closer to what the GFS had vs its 06z run. ICON 18z takes it quite further north and deeper. Now to just wait for more runs and see what we're actually going to deal with.

12z GFS still holding onto this storm heading in next Wednesday, definitely something to keep an eye on as soon-to-be Ophelia generates just off the US east coast which this storm spawns from

The 06z GFS throwing a quite intense area of winds at Ireland/UK spawned from the remnants of.... Ophelia. I don't think this storm would be called such nor as intense, but clearly Ophelia has an issue with Ireland/UK

Yeah! The ocean where hurricanes form is unusually very warm, especially during El Nino, so these earlier storms may really pack a punch we usually don't see this early on. Still too early on to say how itll actually turn out though of course.

The models are likely still struggling to figure out what's going to happen with this Tropical Storm out in the Atlantic too, once that forms the models might get a better grip at what's going on this side of the Atlantic. For example at the moment, GFS takes the storm up into the middle of the Atlantic before throwing it towards Canada, whereas the ECM has it head towards the Lesser Antilles, so that high pressure over the N Atlantic is definitely being modelled differently between them.

Wild that this outlier would still be almost 3-4c below what we managed to get last year (25.2c uppers) I don't like that these outliers have started to pop up towards the end of June/beginning of July though... its what happened last year (although I realise that the below is still not as much of an outlier as the Sheffield one)