Tom Montalbano

Summer tyre Hi St. Yes, I feel quite unique in a way. My hobby has been Meteorology for nigh on 60 Years, of my 68 Years on this Planet. I wish I could fully appreciate the majesty of a Cumulonimbus cloud but I can only look at one, if I know it's going to miss my location or I'm certain it's moving away after affecting my location. This Phobia started way back in June 1966, my Mother had been taken into Hospital early to give birth to my youngest Sister. As I was much closer to my Mum than my Dad and was worried about my Mum's condition, the appearance of a violent T/Storm which began at Midnight and was still rumbling away at 6 A.M., was the catalyst for the start of my Brontophobia. I remember our local Newspaper at the time [Bromley and Kentish Times], reported that 3 T/Storms converged on Bromley that Night. Sounds very much like I had experienced a M.C.S. I actually started to have Counselling back in the 1980's, so severe was my continuing Brontophobia. But unfortunately my Counsellor discussed my personal information with the Receptionist, at the G.P. Practice where I was receiving the Counselling. This breach of confidence prompted me to end the Counselling sessions, straight away. One thing that the Counsellor did try to get me to do, was to break the chain of cognitive behaviour leading up to a spell of Thundery Weather. She suggested I stopped viewing Weather Forecasts and reading about the chances of experiencing a Thundery spell. Of course, that is easier said than done when your hobby is Meteorology and you're a Member, of a Weather Forum. One thing that my Counsellor did tell me, that I totally agree with is that having lived with a lot of stress and trauma due to having a serious illness in my Family, I've been implanting my fears on to something more tangible such as Lightning/Thunder, than coping with the mental trauma a serious illness can have on your psyche. My first Wife passed away after inheriting Huntingdon's Disease from her Father and sadly our two children inherited the HD gene from their Mum, from which our Son sadly passed away as a result of HD, back in late February 2021. Both my Wife and myself were woken by this Morning's event at just after 2 A.M., and all those fears came back to haunt me again. As I commented to my Wife earlier, having been diagnosed with Prostate Cancer a Week before Christmas 2023, that cycle of implanting my fears on to something more tangible, still continues. Regards, Tom M.

lassie23 Good Morning all, I hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Long time, no post on the S.E. Thread. Yes Lassie, this Brontophobe was rudely woken up at precisely 2.10 A.M., by quite a loud crack of Thunder. It was one of those, "what woke me up moments?" I'm guessing it was a bright flash of lightning, that came before. There were a few more rumbles of Thunder, before this first Thundery Shower moved away. But a little while later, a more active cell could be heard, No doubt associated with these impressive looking 'fellas, in the Radar image below: Although the Thunder wasn't loud, the frequency of the grumbling was notable. Being still on the nervous side regarding Lightning/Thunder and having done a lot of researching regarding the time these events are most likely to occur, I now know that once we get close to Dawn, the likelihood of Lightning/Thunder, diminish greatly. I've noticed this is certainly the case, in our Region. Between 6 and 9 A,M., is the least likely time to experience Lightning/Thunder. By this time, any French imports are starting to lose their "oomph" and the Sun hasn't had time to heat the atmosphere enough, to trigger the develipoement of further Thundery activity. Many Years ago, I remember a few Thunder events as April transitioned into May. I've also noticed that we've had quite a bit of Thunder in May, in recent Years but fortunately for Brontophobic me, virtually no Lightning/Thunder, during the following Summers. As the clock ticks towards 6, I can now breathe a sigh of relief. P.S. , with regard to my comment above. Despite another loud rumble of Thunder 15 minutes ago, the Meteox Radar link below, shows that diminishing intensity of Ppn after 6 A.M. Rain radar & weather forecast | Meteoradar Regards, Tom M.

Lauren Good Morning, all. Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Yes, great memories Lauren and a far cry from where we are this Winter.. Below, are a couple of archive charts [500hPa and 850hPa], from that very Wintry end to Winter 2018: / My Wife and myself, have some vivid memories of that event. Colette was working as a Senior Carer at a Residential Care Home, in nearby Chislehurst;/ Emstead Woods area. The Close where we live turns into an Ice Rink a Day after it Snows, and Minicab drivers refuse to come to our door. As there was no other way of getting into work and it certainly wasn't safe to walk the 2 and a half mile journey on such icy pavements and roads , it meant that Colette had to stay at the Care Home overnight, during that spell. As I was still in recovery after suffering an Haemorrhagic Stroke 2 and a half Years earlier, Colette didn't want to leave me at home. As one of the Rooms of the Care Home was empty, my Wife's Manageress kindly agreed to me staying with Colette in that spare Room. The Residents are notorious for wandering around in the middle of the Night, and trying to get into the Rooms of other Residents. My Wife took the precaution of locking the door, and as was expected we heard the door handle being tried, in the middle of that Night. Outside of our Bedroom Window, the Snow lay thick, deep and even. It reminded me of a scene from the film, "The Shining". When our door handle was tried, I'm sure I heard a voice shout, "Here comes Johnny". Below, is a Youtube video of a Sky News report entitled, "The Week Britain Froze": Despite all the encouraging noises regarding Teleconnections and an expected SSW, this Winter is going out like a damp but mild squib. The Daffs are blooming and it's noticeable how vociferous the Dawn Chorus is every Morning, now that Spring is around the corner. Thanks for reminding me though Lauren, some great memories of that spell, even if they were a bit spooky in that Care Home. Regards, Tom Q.

Snow tyre Brilliant, just brilliant!! Regards, Tom Q.

Dami Was your Bee's [R.I.P.] name Eric by any chance, Dami? Regards, Tom Q.

And some joker called George Burns at GB News, has spoken with the following: "UK snow forecast: Met Office confirms snow set to fall in just days as 'cold interlude' sparks freezing temperatures. Snow is set to hit the UK once again as temperatures are currently forecast to fall below freezing." And backs it up with the following "bone chilling" chart: 0c for a lot of our Region at 6 A,M. on a late February Morning. How will we all, cope?? Regards, Tom Q.

lassie23 In honour of your comment on another Thread, Lass. "got more chance of an STD giving us a cold spell than an SSW" Happy V.D., and to all the Ladies in the South East Region. Don't shoot the messenger Ladies, you know what I mean, 'Arry!!. In other romantic news, During this Week 14 Years ago, Yours Truly slipped a disc carrying this lump over the threshold: / Only joking, Colette!! My bride was very trim, and looking every Day of the 10 Years younger than her old f--t, of a Bridegroom. 14 Years is also a very long time, in Weather terms. Although it's almost impossible to see, there was actually Snow grains in the air, when we posed for our Wedding photos, outside of Sidcup Registry Office: Had we got married this Week, no doubt the confetti in my Bride's hair, would've been of the Cherry Blossom variety, You will notice that my Bride's Wedding Dress is a sort of Cream/Ivory colour, rather than White. That "ship had sailed", a number of Years earlier. Only joking again, Sweetheart. Meanwhile back in Weather related news, Julien has got himself in a right tizz over his Maddening Oscillation - As we can see below, Julien has gone mad with his colouring pencils, again!!: But with just a couple of Weeks left of this pathetic excuse of a Winter. It looks very much a Win for Lassie's O.F.I. [October Fog Index]. No Fog sighted in my neck of the Woods, back in October. This correlates with my own index. That being the October Fox Index. The writing was on the wall for this Winter, when our Resident Fox [Vicky Vixen], could be heard many times in the middle of the Night in October, screeching her Christmas number One from last Year. You may recall [or NOT], it was a warning that the much sought after HLB [High Latitude Blocking], after a promising start early last December, was about to vanish without trace. And so it came to pass, and has not shown it's hand so far this Winter. To end this lament to Winter on a musical note, below is Vicky Vixen's Cousin Kate Brush, Brother of Basil, with that lament to the non appearance of Greenland/Scandinavian Highs - Wuthering Withering Heights: Don't exaggerate Kate it's not that cold, and you and Heathcliff can forget about coming through our window, Had my breakfast watching the Manager from the Val Thorens Ski Resort in the French Alps, stating that due to their high altitude, they've had a good Ski Season, whilst Ski Resorts much lower down, have had a poor Ski Season. Then had to watch Tomasz Schafernaker claim it was going to get even milder. From One Tom to another, leave it out matey!! Right, with that I'll make my exit and this Morning, I don't need to get my coat!! A crazy 12C up the road from here, at London City Airport. Roll on Spring, put us Coldies out of our misery!! Regards, Tom Q.

But never fear fellow Coldies, help is at hand.. UK weather: Warning Beast from the East return with late-winter snow to cover Britain Story by Nathan Rao • 2h Our old friend, Nathan Rao has spoken and just to emphasise the depth of cold we'll experience, comes the following bone chilling chart!!: Not sure that will "cut the ice" for us Coldies Nathan, even if there is any ice about to cut!! Regards, Tom Q.

Methuselah One can only hope and pray, Pete!! Regards, Tom Q.

I looked at the following headline and thought, who the hell writes, this stuff? UK weather: Warning Beast from the East return with late-winter snow to cover Britain Story by Nathan Rao • 2h Then I saw the name of Nathan Rao, our old sensationalist Weather nonsense stories friend, and realised that garbage News Channel GB News had resurrected his Journalistic career. 0c at 6 A,M, on a late February Morning, how ever will Londoners cope?? Regards, Tom Q.

Methuselah Beats looking daft! Is that an anagram Pete? of - Beast looking daft! - But of course this Synoptic set up has been impossible, since Brr'exit. With that, I think I will get my coat, hat and gloves!! Regards, Tom Q.

RJBingham Or if you're really lucky: Regards, Tom Q.

alexisj9 Totally agree with the above, Alexis. I used to post a lot in the Model Discussion Thread but stopped doing so, for the very reasons you quote. Plus your comments about Eagle Eye are very true. I would also include our own Nick Finnis, Nick Sussex and Captain Shortwave, above all others on the Model Discussion Thread. Regards, Tom Q.

A very good Morning, all. I hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. How did you sleep last Night? I must admit to being quite surprised by some of the comments, above. I didn't find it quite as noisy, as the other Night, when Isha "strutted their stuff" Note I use "their" rather than her/his, as having googled the name as you do, evidently it's Sanskrit [Hindu] and Unisex. Below, are the Meteociel Wind Graphs for nearby London City Airport, around 6 Miles North of my location. They show the Wind Speeds recorded for both Storm Isha and Jocelyn, in the Overnight period: STORM ISHA STORM JOCELYN / / I was surprised to see that Jocelyn actually recorded stronger gusts than Isha. Isha was cetainly stronger early on in the Night, whereas Jocelyn took longer to reach her peak. As you can see, Jocelyn died down pretty quickly, whereas Isha had another "bite at the cherry. The front of our House faces West, including our Bedroom. We like to have our Bedroom window ajar all through the Year but on both Nights, our Bedroom door was being "sucked" open and slammed shut again. That can be very disturbing. To rival Lassie's B.M.I. [Bin Moving Index], I bring you the L.R.I. [Letterbox Rapping Index]. As you can see from those charts above, the Wind direction during both Storms has been very similar S.W./W.S.W. Yet Isha "scored" many more raps on our Letterbox, than Jocelyn has. This Morning's Youtube Musical comes courtesy of Jimi Hendrix with The Wind Cries Mary Isha/Jocelyn: In the 2nd verse, Jimi states - "And The Clowns Have All Gone To Bed". Jimi of course is making reference to all the "Hopecasters" on the MAD Thread, retiring to their slumbers after viewing the 18z Model Runs. I wonder what their reaction will be once they've digested all the 00z Model Runs. **NB** - No offence to Members feelings was intended in the constructing of this Post. It's just a bit of fun/A,I, [Artistic Indulgence]. Regards, Tom Q.

A very good Morning, all. I hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Did you manage to get more sleep than I did, last Night? I sincerely hope so. Isha really was making a racket with their Wind, overnight. I can't remember starting a Weather related post, with a Meteociel chart, displaying recently recorded Wind speeds but I will on this occasion. Below, are the recent Meteociel graphs displaying Wind Speed/Maximum Temp/Air Pressure, during the Overnight period recorded at nearby, London City Airport: / / A very strong and gusty S.W. has been blowing all Night long which did drop out for a short while before a rather violent but temporary Squall/ came through S.E. London about 4.45. After this Squall went through the temperature dropped back to 11C and the Air Pressure rose sharply to 1001 mbs after dipping to 998 mbs, in the early hours. It was virtually impossible to sleep, with all the racket going on outside and Isha kept playing "knock down ginger" with our letter box. I hope I get some sleep Tonight, as we look like doing it all again Tomorrow Night/Wednesday Morning. Could we see the arrival of Jocelyn?: In other Weather related news. the search for the next possible Wintry spell looks a forlorn one, at the moment. The Purple Blob/ P.V. [Pernicious Victor] has taken up residency yet again, in the vicinity of Greenland And combined with - - Barbara the Bartlett High /Eunice the Euro Slug, It looks a long way back to cold and very little chance at present for - - Greta the Greenland High, or - Scandy Mandy the Scandinavian High, to make an appearance. But I'm sure some Member on the MAD Model Thread will cling on to the hope that the C.F.S. [Consistently Failed Synoptics] model will show us an Easterly come the end of March May, like so: Isha did try and sound a bit melodic whilst keeping me awake though, by constantly "playing" with a neighbour's "Wind Chimes", and with that in mind, below is a tribute to melodic Storm Isha and "Song of the Wind": Regards, A very tired Tom Q.

Morning all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. As Lottie notes above, the transition to a much less cold phase of Weather, is now under way. But as is the norm when the change to a milder regime occurs, it often comes from the West and our Region is often the last to come out of the "freezer". This can be clearly seen from the Meteociel chart below, depicting recently recorded maximum temperatures, over the U.K.: Had a smashing 2 Mile round walk to my G.P.'s Practice yesterday Morning, for a Blood Pressure medication review. This turned out to be a case of Meteorology in action, for Yours Truly. The overnight Low locally, in the early hours of yesterday Morning had dropped to between -3C and -4C, which was around the same figure as Thursday Morning but what was infinitely more noticeable was the amount of Frost visible, on most surfaces. This was especially so on Cars, Gardens, Pavements and Roofs. The reason being that the Relative Humidity yesterday Morning was in the high 60's%, rather than much lower the Day before. That extra moisture in the atmosphere presented itself as a mantle of white on those surfaces mentioned above, freezing on contact with them. On our walk back from my G,P. Practice at around Midday, those areas still in the shade were still wearing that White overcoat. Fortunately after my recent diagnosis of Prostate Cancer, my Blood Pressure reading was a respectable 141/81, and there is no reason to increase the dosage of the B.P. tablets, I'm currently taking. Although my Systolic reading of 141, could be a bit better but the viscosity blood does thicken in cold Weather. I see we're due a visit from this Lady, in the next couple of Days - I'm sure some of the Cricket loving 'fellas amongst us, would much prefer a visit from the Lady below, with a similar name. BBC Cricket presenter, Isa Guha - Speaking of high Blood Pressure, at least mine is more under control than Marvin Gaye's, in this Morning's gratuitous musical clip: Think you're in need of some of my Doxazosin Marvin, which if another dose of Cold Weather fails to materialise some on the Mad Thread, will be needing some B.P. medication. Still not too much evidence of a much needed Scandinavian High in the extended outlook, with too much pressure from the Polar Vortex, in the vicinity of Greenland but February is still a long way off, in terms of Forecast Models. Therefore, no need to be suffering from Hypertension, just yet!! I wonder if the kind of healing that Mr. Gaye is after, is available on the N.H.S.? Regards, Tom Q.

Evening all, I see the 12z GFS was trying to get some W.A.A. [Warm Air Advection] going way out in Fantasy Land, as did the 12z ECM and GEM / / But there is too much pressure from the - in the vicinity of Greenland to allow any Northern blocking to take hold, at that range. P.V. [Pernicious Victor] needs to "do one" and back away Westwards to Baffin Island or better still, Siberia!! Therefore my fellow South-Easterners it may be a long wait before and if we see a more favourable Synoptic set up, that may deliver something Cold and Wintry. to our Region. We are now about to enter a phase of a much milder regime of Weather, and a return of some Rain and Wind. With that gloomy outlook for us Snow starved South-Easterners, I thought I would leave you with a musical "Snow Fix". Below, Phil Collins, Genesis and the delightful, Snowbound: Night all. Regards, Tom Q.

They'll be hoping it's "The Day After Tomorrow", on the Mad Thread. - Meanwhile, the Met Office, are smelling the Coffee all the way from Verkhoyansk in "From Russia Siberia With Love": Friday 2 Feb - Friday 16 Feb Into early February there is an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but this increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a chance of some milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north. And that can only mean one thing, Lass. More of that dreaded All Weather Racing!! Speaking of which, I need to go and post up Tomorrow's links to those wonderful Wolverhampton All Weather Races!! Regards, Tom Q.

Just want to post up a few charts that illustrate how an unhelpful looking Northern Hemispheric profile synoptically, can eventually lead to a very helpful one, if a Snow laden Easterly, "floats your boat". As am an old f--t, I can remember the Christmas of 1984 and how the Synoptic charts were looking back then: Christmas Eve 1984, looking pretty "naff" but hang in there!! Christmas Day 1984 pretty mundane, too. / But by Boxing Day 1984, the Atlantic seems to be slowing down? By the 28th, some W.A.A. [Warm Air Advection], is in evidence: / The following Day [29th], the core of heights are transferring across the U.K., towards Scandinavia. On New Year's Day 1985, there was a further bout of Warm Air Advection, surging Polewards: / By the 3rd January, the core of heights is in charge between Iceland and Svarlbard. The following Day [4th Jan], the Synoptics to our N.E., started to look very favourable: / Then on the 5th January 1985 a bitterly cold flow from the N.E., was knocking on the door of our Region: I had just moved back to S.E. London, after living in Lincolnshire for a Year and seeing a few inches of settling Snow outside my Maisonette, was a perfect welcome home present, for this Snow Lover. It is quite an unusual Synoptic evolution and by no means am I suggesting the same is going to happen, this Winter. But it does illustrate how a not very interesting Synoptic profile, in terms of a Wintry prospect for our Region, can become very interesting in terms of seeing Snow for our Region, if all the pieces of the Synoptic jigsaw fall into place. Regards, Tom Q.

Hi Angela, just a guess on my part. With the air being so dry, it gives the impression of melting but it may not have been that visible, in the first place? Not a very technical answer, I know. Regards, Tom Q.

Yes, the rest of January looks to remain on the mild side and a little unsettled but with the worst of the Rain/Wind, in the North and North West. High Pressure looks to settle things down over our Region, with a chance of some Frost/Fog. In the extended outlook, the Met Office mention a likelihood of the Wind turning into the East, which if it should occur, would give our Region a shot of seeing some Snow. Below, is that Met Office extended outlook, for the first half of February, with that possibility emboldened: Thursday 1 Feb - Thursday 15 FebS Into early February there is an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but this increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a chance of some milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north. Obviously way out in Fantasy Land, below is the 00z GEM [Canadian Model], and a possible route to that Easterly sourced flow: For High Pressure to gain a hold to our N.E., we would need the P.V. [Polar Vortex], as shown on that 00z GEM Run, to exert less pressure in the Greenland/Iceland area. But as we know only to well - the Purple Venom [Aka Pernicious Victor/Purple Blob], can be a stubborn individual, to shift!! Regards, Tom Q.

Yes the air is very dry, with low Dew Points around our Region of around -7C/-9C. Regards, Tom Q.

Hi Alexis. I thought you might comment on the amount of Snow, that fell in Croydon. As I stated Yesterday, Monday 2nd February was my Day off from my work in Laud Street. When I got to work the following Day, I couldn't believe how much Snow there was in Croydon Town Centre. There was 4 to 6 inches of Snow on the Tram Line, near Church Street. I never thought I would see more Snow in Croydon than in Bromley, further East and therefore closer to a source of moisture, that being the Thames Estuary. But that was the case with this unusual Thames Snow Streamer. Below, are a few more Youtube clips of the Snowfall in Croydon, from that event: Mind you, the Borough of Bromley's Snow "Capital" [Biggin Hill}, proves how much Snowfall can be achieved when you have some elevation. Below, Biggin Hill in the deep Snows of December 2010: Regards, Tom Q.

Absolutely agree with the above NewEra21, from 7 hours ago. Below, are the 500hPa and 850hPa archive charts for 18z on 1st February 2009, as the most productive Thames Snow Streamer event that I've ever witnessed was about to begin. / I had moved to Lee with my future Wife, a few Years earlier. Back where I used to Live with my Children in Anerley, London SE20, this was the scene the following Morning. My Daughter's car was covered with a good few inches, and this was the scene from the road bridge over Anerley Station, looking N. / It was a very unusual Thames Snow Streamer event, in regard to the distribution of Snowfall. For once the depth of Snow was more notable in some areas, such as Guildford, rather than locations further East and closer to the Thames Estuary/Southern North Sea. I was working in Croydon [Surrey] at the time. Monday 2nd February was my Day off, and I couldn't believe the amount of Snow that was lying on the ground in Central Croydon,, on Tuesday 3rd February. Below, is a Youtube clip of the scene in Central Croydon on Monday 2nd February, 2009: Just found this Thread below, which I started way back in November 2014: UK "Snow Streamer" events. | Winter Weather Discussion (netweather.tv) Regards, Tom Q.

Just a P.S. to my post above. I do remember scenes like the following in the Road where I lived, in the Winter of 1962.63. Running up and down, great mounds of hard packed Snow to and from School, that had been swept clear of Residents, driveways: Finally, a couple of images from the 1962/63 Winter in my Home Town of Bromley, Kent. The first is of Beckenham Lane, Shortlands, in the North of the Borough of Bromley: The second, is of the perimeter fence at Biggin Hill Airport, in the South of the Borough: Regards, Tom Q.