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BruenSryan
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Posts posted by BruenSryan
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1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:
Well you know my thoughts on this subject. However, there is always hope. Anybody know the ENSO status and QBO for the 46/47 winter?
ENSO was neutral on the slightly positive side through the winter but barely negligible. QBO reconstruction showed a downwelling easterly QBO through 1946 and 1947.
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It does amaze me how many forget July 2020 whilst it is my personal least favourite summer month although July 2023 is making a strong contender! Had only 104 hrs of sun in July 2020 followed by 97 hours in August 2020.. however the July total is arguably worse because it has higher potential with more daylight whilst both are atrocious. This July is on 93.6 hrs right now.
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Another scorching day in this stunning July. Yay
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Just now, BrynnStorm said:
Can I get a link? I looked on the Met Office website and couldn’t find it. I’m happy to be corrected and get more information!
All datasets are in the link below including the mean max and mean min. 2014-current provisional can be found here, again including mean max and mean min.
Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK-
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3 minutes ago, BrynnStorm said:
I think the issue with the CET is that it doesn’t give a mean maximum temperature. I’m not in the CET zone, but our mean maximum this month will likely be around 18°C or 19°C. That’s below average. Night time temperatures are probably around average or slightly above, so it doesn’t necessarily reflect in the mean. However, I think our average mean temperature for July here is around 17°C, so we’ll end up below that too.
Except the CET max, which is a mean max temp, exists.
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Just now, SollyOlly said:
Thanks Metwatch. I absolutely agree that statistics can sometimes obscure 'lived experience', and that it's only part of the story. I just get irked at some of the "worst July on record!" hyperbole that we sometimes see...it's just not.
Anyway, I read this interesting thing on the World Meteorological Organisation site a few weeks back:
"However, for the purposes of historical comparison and climate change monitoring, WMO still recommends the continuation of the 1961-1990 period for the computation and tracking global climate anomalies relative to a fixed and common reference period."
For complete clarity, I'm not downplaying anybody's lived experience, or preference etc...I'm talking about it from the perspective of the scientific method. I know that we all feel relative heat and cold differently etc...
I couldn't care less that this July hasn't been all that cool statistically, it's been extremely wet and cloudy. That is atrocious.
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Currently wetter here than any month since November 2019 which was my wettest month since August 2014 and could be Dublin's wettest July on record but I suppose it's been grand yeah. I do love getting soaked every day with still less than 100 hours of sunshine as of 24th July to enjoy.
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4 minutes ago, Downburst said:
Can you please share a link to these charts Metwatch. Thanks
Daily Climate Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
PSL.NOAA.GOVUS Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory Monthly/Seasonal Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
PSL.NOAA.GOVUS Department of Commerce, NOAA, Physical Sciences LaboratoryFirst one is daily, second is monthly. Use the daily one for months that aren't over yet.
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10 minutes ago, razorgrain said:
To be fair if this pattern had happened in the 1960s we'd probably be seeing 10°c max.
Knowing Ireland that would probably be drier and sunnier so I'd take that over this shitshow.
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54 minutes ago, emmett garland said:
we just had 16.6mm west of Dublin in last hour ..Bergen it is at the moment
Day was better than I expected but back to square one the past hour or so!
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Considering I had more than 400% of my weekly July average rainfall with less than 50% of sunshine and below average temps, that's not OK! Terrible terrible week.
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5 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:
August 2014 I can see getting a bad rap for being cold (I don't see it often mentioned though it doesnt really seem to stand out good or bad) and it wasn't exactly a amazing August like last years but at least sunshine levels are pretty decent average to a lil above average going by this map. Basically me being so desperate for sunshine that Aug 2014 looks outstanding.
It was the second wettest August this century nationally for the UK with only 2004 wetter. Ex-hurricane Bertha hit England on the 10th and gave a deluge. It was horrendous and was especially a shock after the lovely June and wonderful July. The only colder than average month in 2014 just had to be August, it had to be out of all months.
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2 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:
Ill gladly take something like a drier and sunnier August 2014 at this point. I recall it being cold but still fairly sunny and settled. Plus the following September was lovely around those parts.
"Drier" and "August 2014" in the same sentence
it was an awful month.
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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:
Will be interested to see average max compared to average min. Mins haven't been that low thanks to cloud, but a cool one this eve on the cards. Northern areas just out of the CET have seen cooler minima, and maxima substantively cool. Perhaps the SST values are preventing this month from being notably below average. The air has predominantly been a chill polar source. Only seems right we end up below the 61-90 average, but touch and go whether that happens, a good chance I feel.
CET minimum is 0.6C above 61-90 whilst CET maximum is bang on the 61-90 average.
UK national mean max is ~0.27C above 61-90 whilst min is ~1.00C above 61-90. Mean max is ~0.72C below the modern warmer 91-20.
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Don't know why I never posted here this season but these were from the morning of the 4th July at Howth in Dublin. This was the only pretty good display visible here this season with the rest of them being covered by boring cloud.
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12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
July 23 is fast becoming a replica of July 09, very wet, dull and cool.
Synoptically, that's also the case..
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17 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:
Added some more QBO vs ENSO information and data for everyone to read here. Have been looking to see if there is indeed any link between the QBO leading up to the winter as well as the ENSO status as well as position in the Pacific.
Firstly I have a list of all of the ENSO events from 1954 onwards in order of strength from strongest El Nino's right down to strongest La Nina's with the QBO direction and strength in the autumn preceding the winter.
A whole mixture here with a range of QBO directions and strengths throughout the list but I did a closer look at specific categories to see if there is any link.
Average QBO speed under each ENSO status
This was a general blanket assessment under El Nino, Neutral and La Nina. The result is below.
What is of immediate interest here is how the more we head in the direction of El Nino the more likely we are to be more WQBO influenced with a less negative number and as we head in the direction of La Nina we are slightly more EQBO biased.
This tells little but does hint that:
- EQBO fights against El Nino
- EQBO favours La Nina
- WQBO favours El Nino
- WQBO fights against La Nina
Average QBO speed under specific El Nino's and La Nina's
Now for something a bit more specific and should show up any further links. How does each El Nino type and La Nina type link up with the QBO
What is immediately obvious here is how both CP El Nino and EP La Nina are more likely with an EQBO in place whilst EP El Nino and CP La Nina are more likely with WQBO.
This tells us a bit more now and hints
- EQBO favours both CP El Nino and EP La Nina
- EQBO fights against EP El Nino and CP La Nina
- WQBO favours EP El Nino and CP La Nina
- WQBO fights against CP El Nino and EP La Nina
Average QBO speed under each specific El Nino type
Now for the most relevant for 2023 as El Nino looks all but certain now. Which El Nino type and QBO speed and direction go together. The result is below.
The most immediate obvious thing here is how in general CP events go with EQBO and EP events with WQBO. The strong EP and CP events are based on very few El Nino's so might not be that representative but the rest have enough events to go on.
Where is this data from? The peak for 1965-66 I can see is +2.0 which is solidly strong and it was an easterly QBO.
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31 minutes ago, Frigid said:
My ideal autumn would be crisp, sunny days with frosty nights and cool/mild days (12-16C) going into late Autumn. I don't mind warmth in September as its quite pleasant, something like 2020 would be great with its warmth and cool end. October I prefer it to be mixed with alternating dry to wet spells. Going into November I'd like widespread sharp frosts and endless sunny skies for weeks.. what a peach of a month that would be. By month I'd like a September 2020, October 2018, November 2016. Perfect.
That is pretty much my ideal albeit with a 2010 end to November
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2 minutes ago, SummerShower said:
There have been a few wet days, and quite a few showers yes, but i don't rate this July as bad as some. It's better than 2009,12,15 for example, and probably neither better or worse than 2020. Lots of usable weather despite a lack of sunbathing chances. Its just a bit boring and nondescript tbh.
If August turns out OK this will still be a half decent summer overall.
I found the first week ok, pretty average if a little on the wet side. However, that weekend just gone was an abomination and one of the worst summer weekends I've had up there with the Diamond Jubilee weekend in June 2012 being the worst. Hope I won't see one as bad for a LONG time.
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3 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:
I know July so far has felt very poor for many after an excellent June, but it's interesting to see that the CET up to the 17th July 2023 is currently running 0.3C above the July average and that rainfall for all Regions bar N Ireland is running below average.
CET:
Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
Rainfall to 16th July:
Source: ITV National Weather
Don't think that's running average, think that's referring to whole monthly average and given we're "only" to 16th July on the data, 90% for the UK is wetter than average as of this point in the month.
England & Wales well above where it should be for this point in July.
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2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:
2007 almost certainly failed. 2012 I think made it sometime between the 23rd-27th but not sure.
2010 perhaps also failed, it was a reasonable month but ISTR it lacked heat.
Here's the July maxima for that run of poor Julys/summers.
2007 24.7C at London Weather Centre on the 31st (24.6C at Llysdinham same day with LWC records being disregarded)
2008 30.2C at Cambridge on the 28th
2009 32.0C at Hampton on the 1st
2010 31.7C at Gravesend on the 9th
2011 27.4C at Hartpury College on the 25th
2012 30.7C at St James' Park on the 25th
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2 hours ago, alexisj9 said:
No where in the UK has hit 30 this month. I don't know when the last time July hasn't had a 30 though.
There has been 30C - just abouts - 30.2C at Chertsey on the 7th.
And the last time was 2011.
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5 minutes ago, SunSean said:
I do often let lack of sunshine affect my mood. In fact, it's one of the only things that affect me like that these days! Slowly working on it though. I have found this year, when the grey persists for too long, I've found solace in booking a short 3-5 day trip somewhere nice just to reset my mind again and on both occasions this year, it boosted my mentality immensely. Not wise to do it too much though otherwise it will be my bank balance affecting my mood instead
The lack of sunshine and blue skies affect mine greatly too. A warm day is of no use to me without that beautiful blue sky to uplift my mood. Going from the sunniest spring on record to my cloudiest summer on record in 2020 (almost a 300 hour decrease on the spring) still hits me hard to this day at the thoughts of it.
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1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:
Surprised June wasn't the warmest month in 1992 but I suspect it was once again warm nights in July/August coming into play, cancelling out the suppressed day maxima.
Would be interesting to see if any years since 1970 had June as the month with highest mean max. I'd suspect that would have been the case in both 1992 and 2010.
The following years had June with the highest CET mean max since 1970. (second warmest in brackets)
1993 19.6C (July/August 19.1C)
1992 20.9C (July 20.2C)
1970 21.7C (August 20.4C)
July had a higher mean max in 2010 with 21.4C vs 20.3C.
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Summer 2023 chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
No, it's not moot. They've published this every year at this time since 2014. I guess you didn't bring up this nonsense those other years plus it interests nerds like me.