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BruenSryan

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Everything posted by BruenSryan

  1. I'd rate solar activity higher than ENSO or QBO for correlation given my research although even solar activity has its odd ones out. All elements have to be considered rather than taking one completely as a basis. One thing I know that definitely points towards a mild Winter is the Atlantic SST anomalies, they are just not conducive to negative NAO going by the UKMO methodology.
  2. Years generated or chosen from Cohen's Eurasian snow cover anomalies graph for October 1967-2018 (using data from Rutger's Snow Lab). 2018 was only relatively above average going by this graph and I picked the closest years I can see to 2018 for the analogue. You may pick some slightly different years than what I chose there which is fine as we all have our own different interpretations. The years were 2010-11 (westerly QBO), 2004-05 (weak El Nino), 2003-04 (transitioning to westerly QBO), 2000-01, 1999-00 (westerly QBO), 1996-97 (transitioning to westerly QBO), 1982-83 (westerly QBO), 1978-79 (slowly transitioning to easterly QBO - doesn't get there until the mid Spring of 1979), 1973-74.
  3. This is what Winters with similar October Eurasian snow cover (using Cohen's index) to 2018 look like reanalysed.... contrary to what Chris says.
  4. For the CET, it was the coldest 28th February (at -3.6c) since 1785 (-3.8c). It was the joint coldest 1st March (-3.5c) on record since 1785 (-3.5c). A new UK record low maximum for Spring/March was recorded. Severe blizzard was recorded here in Ireland with depths not seen at least since January 1982 and maybe even longer for some like 1947, 1933 or 1917. Sounds pretty exceptional to me.... do feel you're down playing the Beast from the East 2018 period a bit unnecessarily.
  5. Well nature can amaze us sometimes 'cause look what happened following that chart @Ed Stone showed from November 1978, this was the end of the month. I can't imagine the forum surviving a month like December 1978 with the amount of toys being thrown out of the pram. Patience is a virtue people. About November 1946 which I mentioned the other day too in an evaluation post on why it's far too early to be getting disappointed, according to this reconstruction of the QBO, 1946-47 was a westerly QBO Winter yet it was also solar maximum. Make of that what you will. Reconstructing_the_Quasi-Biennial_oscillation_back.pdf Another example from history: Early November 1962 (note the blocking to the east of Europe and a displaced Azores High) November 1919, incredible blocking. December 1919, no blocking to be seen and ended up a mild, wet and cloudy Winter following a very cold November. Was a complete write off from a cold perspective, similar to the 1998 example @Weather-history gave above, except 1919 had a November with cold extremes. GFS 06z is not bad, I've seen far worse (millions actually). ECM 0z was not great short term but the displaced Azores High should be noted, like in 1962 ^.
  6. Come on man, it's early November, what do ya expect like seriously? It's not what happens now that matters, it's the prospects of what could happen in a few weeks from now. Wouldn't mind a proper cold, wintry January for a change! Just had a look at the GFS 0z myself, reminds me of November 2009 again. Not your usual zonal pattern, fronts struggling to push west to east.
  7. I suspect the UK and Ireland (moreso Ireland than the UK) would be very unlucky at times with such a 500mb height anomaly if it were to verify. Why do I say this? The trough is just a bit too far west to really lock into severe and prolonged cold easterly flows. Most of us would be in a no man's land scenario with mild air battling against an easterly flow trying to occur. Think Scotland would get away well though. If the trough were centred or extended further eastwards into Europe, hell yeah, locked into the freezer! Anyway, not worth delving into further than that as it's only one single CFS run which changes every few hours and every day so reliability is out the window.
  8. Far too early is an understatement. Only need history to prove it. 4 November 1946..... the warmest November day on record before 2015 in the UK and Ireland. Prestatyn recorded a max. of 21.7c. Even Edinburgh got up to 20.6c on the same day. Not much sign of Winter? Yeah. Now look at exactly 3 months later..... 4 February 1947. Sometimes you can see teasers for the Winter in November but it can change dramatically. November has no effect on how the Winter will pan out. For instance, the year that broke the 1946 November record high; 2015. This was followed by a totally different Winter to 1946-47. 1946-47 was one of the coldest (and snowiest) on record of all-time whilst 2015-16 was the second warmest on record back to 1659 behind 1868-69. Or late 2010 First 4 days of November 2010: Final week of November 2010: Don't cast a clout 'til May is out.
  9. At least 2007-08 was passable and somewhat interesting instead of complete rubbish like say 1987/88. 2007-08 had as you say freezing fog and some ice days during the mid month dry spell in December 2007, there was a brief easterly at the start of January which delivered some heavy snowfalls particularly over Northern Ireland; not sure about other regions of the UK, February was the sunniest on record (which I'll take very sunny conditions any day if I don't get the snow) and had some severe frost, March and April both had several instances of snowfalls. Found April 2008's snowfalls quite remarkable here and they were the last April snowfalls I have had since.
  10. Even in a warmer planet, we have still succeeded with the coldest December since 1890 (or coldest December/coldest month on record) and the coldest March since 1883/1962.
  11. January and February 2016 were still very wet months and January had exceptional mild conditions later on.
  12. November 1919 cold and snowy spell which delivered very unusual extreme cold conditions to the UK and Ireland including -23c in Scotland on November 14th.
  13. Which I'll 100% take after the rubbish I've endured a lot of the recent years especially the stupidly warm Halloweens.
  14. Exact same here mate, so you're not alone. Worst times of my life were also during March 2013 at the same time of me losing out on the snow constantly. March 2013 couldn't have been more terrible for me and the weather just emphasised it.
  15. Yep, I've been having that year on my mind throughout my Winter updates that I began in the Summer. 1978 was a year that I thought of and its hurricane season was very similar. It was unusually quiet before September but then quickly ramped up to an average season overall than inactive like it was looking such. 2018 has been similar if a little more active I think. God love us if 1978-79 were to come though because these forums would be filled with lots of disappointment from a month like December 1978 then minds are boggled once the New Year comes as a blizzard strikes showing patience is a virtue with our Winters
  16. Also now the warmest day on record in the UK for this late in the year and latest 26c in the year.
  17. Warmest October 13th on record, 25.4c at Weybourne.
  18. Already 23c in London (over an hour ago when posting this). The temperature record in the UK for October 13th is 25.3c. If we surpass 25.9c, it will be the warmest temperature in the UK on record for this late in the year. In the same year, 29.1c was recorded on April 19th...... 2018 you are absolutely amazing I swear, you don't give up!
  19. Did not measure it (wouldn't have been able to anyway due to drifts) but here's the deepest snow I've received (my front garden on 2 March 2018) whilst the second one is of a neighbour's garden.
  20. It was an amazing Winter considering its time - a long period of largely forgettable or mild Winters from 1997 to 2008. The end of February and early March brought severely cold weather including the March record low maximum before 2018 (and one of the few Marches to reach a minimum of -20c in the UK). There was a blizzard on February 27th for parts including here in the east of Ireland. January was frosty. There was the snowy and cold spell at the end of December which you mentioned. I was only 1 month old in December 2000 so can only go off of stats.
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