The Enigma

That looks much better, and more realistic given the setup in my opinion. Also, when did we start getting an 18z ECM ??

What does it show ?

GFS looking better but early doors still…

Have had short light to moderate showers in Stirling all day, not really accumulating too much though. Any insight from locals on what to expect in coming hours/days? This is my first season here.

This is largely more to do with the development of high pressure over Iberia though, no? Too far out to worry about now anyway.

Snowing and settling in Stirling !

UKMO/GEM/GFS are excellent, Arpege not quite as good but much better than it's 12z, ICON is not good.

What % did this cluster make up on this mornings run?

These runs are simply sublime, you would struggle to draw a more perfect Greeny High.

ECM is turning into an epic, takes a bit longer but is a more locked in cold spell. This time tomorrow we should be staring down the barrel of the best easterly in decades...

Another tense set of runs coming up, Arpege and ICON 06z's heading the right way (better ridging/Atlantic profile). Remember that regardless of whether or not the 12z's show what we all want (or don't) that this is unlikely to be set in stone this evening. S4lancia's post above is worth taking stock of- run to run variation happens every time. I have to say it's been some of the best model watching over the last few weeks, watching the SSW being forecast and then coming to fruition with a devastating affect on the tropospheric vortex coming - pure synoptic heaven. Hopefully this beast lands... It's long overdue.

Actually the build up to December 2010 had a similar feeling to this, the feeling that the charts were completely unnatural for these isles and also that nagging feeling that they couldn't really happen. There were several days in a row like the day just past, with fantastic charts as the models honed in on the superbly wintery scenario that we all know unfolded. December 2012 still lingers in the mind too- the easterly that never was. This time looks very different though, almost all the teleconnections are playing ball and we have a record breaking SSW thrown in for good measure. Downgrades are likely to some extent as we are still talking well into FI before the real cold arrives and so the models will play around with the various outcomes but on the other hand if this is actually going to happen, expect the unexpected I.e more ridiculous charts over the next few days. I'm expecting this 18z GFS run to not stand out so much in 48hours time...