Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

It's so nice to see GEFS still bringing a half decent weekend with a ridge on Saturday but more especially from Mon - Thu next week giving us in South Wales (and elsewhere in southern UK) some much needed drier weather, thereafter a hint of low pressure returning but obviously that's a long way off yet.

Interesting to see all that snow streaming into west Wales especially with the gales or severe gales that's also forecast

I'm optimistic of a half decent weekend here in S Wales and also across S England with that higher pressure just about edging in from France on the GFS 12z ??

Hooray GFS 6z has a high 1025mb across S Wales & S England this weekend so no torrential rain/thunder or gales for a change ️

Not quite as stormy (at the moment anyway) as the infamous Feb 2014 that really was horrendous

Plenty of showers but nothing thundery showing up on the CAPE/LI, I guess that's because the upper air is milder. Cold unstable air usually brings the thundery downpours at this time of year from off relatively mild seas

I worry if we can't break out of these prolonged periods of overcast skies even within high pressure systems, sunshine amounts could be lower than average and therefore keeping the temperatures down too I'd have thought

Latest CFS is dreadful as it resembles a February 2014 repeat: Storm after storm after storm...... That's not good

'Should' being the keyword there, remember February 2014? Storm after storm. The railway line got washed away in Dawlish, Devon and a week later on the 12th wind gusts reached 100mph in Swansea

Well I must say last Summer wasn't too bad at all especially July, now that was very dry. Doesn't a -NAO mean low to the south and high to north though? if so it managed to bring us a reasonable Summer here in South Wales and across southern England but I'm sure the high was close to the south and lows were further north so I assumed that meant a +NAO?

Well a what a turnaround on the cards from a rainfall/flooding point of view, now this is a marvellous GFS run for southern UK with it becoming much, much drier (finally, especially in South Wales & SW England) while NW Scotland becomes much, much wetter than its been this Autumn a good hint the jet is moving north taking it's lows with it and higher pressure is becoming more influential in the south Thanks Santa ??

As nice as it would be to see a bit of snow, a decent period of fine, sunny weather would be equally just as nice, wouldn't you agree?

Hi, I'm not sure which thread I need to report data issues but I don't know if you're aware Netweather team, the storm forecast seems to be having data issues with the LI index over the past week or so as you can see from the screenshot for tomorrow for Porthcawl, south Wales. There is a further thunder risk through tomorrow showing on the models but LI around 0 to -1 not -30 lol

Still a drier path though hopefully? ??

Well the GFS isn't feeling very festive this morning with the low teens making a comeback all thanks to a long fetch of southerly winds for Christmas Eve's Eve

Great to see to the GFS pumping out lots more instability with some decent CAPE again early next week towards the W & SW of the UK Fantastic cloud structures towering behind South Wales teatime yesterday, best I've seen for years around here but not a single flash of lightning! This was the view from Porthcawl

Along with the entire south coast of Wales, like what happened in December 2017

Same old, same old, USA once again gets the cold & snow so I presume while this is going on the jet will be firing on all cylinders so it's going to be very unsettled and stormy for the UK & Ireland?

A fine spell of weather still on the cards for early December as high pressure builds in for a short time, but after what's been the case during Oct & Nov with frequent and often persistent rain, even that is better than nothing ️??

So nice to see high pressure becoming more dominant down to the SW from December instead of low, I know that's not good news snow-wise but after another very wet period coming up this weekend and lasting into next week for SE Ireland, the Westcountry & S Wales a much drier spell will be very welcome by many ️

Totally agree, it's getting to the point where I personally don't mind if it's going to be mild or cold but let's just get some drier weather for a change ??

So the chase for the first snowflake to fall for this season is already over for some of us in South Wales as well as parts of Ireland & down into the Westcountry in mid-November lol, even on the coast it was 2-3C with some sleetiness, not as good as snow I know but it's not bad going considering the sea temperatures are still around 12-13C Through next week the lows take a different track though and a result winds begin to turn SW'ly bringing temperatures back up to normal or possibly a tad above by the end of the week but unfortunately still no sign of settled weather returning for the foreseeable future

Doesn't that chart mean higher pressure though so we could finally see a gradual drying out process from December after several weeks of very wet weather?

Arpege suggests the band of rain with some sleet/snow on high ground will have cleared Wales & SW England by around dinnertime, so perhaps a half decent Saturday is possible along with a fine Sunday Ed. Met also showing this scenario

Must be quite far out in the Irish Sea from Pembrokeshire then today as there's been blue skies & sunshine here on the SW coast making a welcome change