Daniel
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
People are looking at the bigger picture. The PV has moved away from greenland which would allow a good chance for cold further on -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Daniel replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Those are yesterday's charts mate -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Daniel replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Daniel replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's not a regional thread shouldn't be any bias at all. My comments on runs will be for the whole of the uk -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
12z vs 18z the low is more flat because the pressure is higher on it. Good move from 18z imo if we can get further movement on the high on 0z then it's game on Should note it will likely blow up on further frames. We need more sustained pressure but as I said it's a move in the right direction -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
high much closer to Iceland. Not perfect but much better compared to 12z. Hopefully we can get enough forcing on the low -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The high is better positioned if you ask me on 18z small differences make a big difference for us. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Stronger block into Greenland on 18z... -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's called variation of the theme. The moaning in here whenever we get a slightly different run is ridiculous it miss leads the people in here who are here to learn. The latest gfs dosen't take much longer than 18z to get the bitter cold air in. It just does it in a slightly different way. We have a good Greenland high let's calm down and have some patience! -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GEM similar to icon with freezing conditions for Wednesday. If we could delay the arrival with the low a little bit more on GEM we would see mid minus teens 850hpas entering the east. The breakdown looks to be around Thursday ish altho I think we might manage couple more days extra than that away from the far SW -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I do agree but with Sundays event delivering 10 to 15cm in parts of EA then comes alone the convective constant snow showers which should add a lot more to it we could be talking 30cm in places. A lot of things have to come into place first so yes I think it's best to keep exspectations low but have an open mind. I certainly would be very happy man if I lived on coastal EA rn -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Has the low further west so it takes longer to clear. It's certainly a possible scenario -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
More of a direct easterly on 0z gfs rather than a NE tilt so uppers aren't so cold down south but cold enough for snow -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wednesday would be freezing across the whole country! Slack easterly winds with widespread -10 uppers brrr!! -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
Daniel replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Op is no outlier around two ensembles get -10 uppers into London at this stage down from like 10+ 0z yesterday morning.