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Everything posted by smichling
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To answer about track length etc... From what I could see from radar as it evolved, it looks like 3 tornadoes formed from the storm, the first hit Rolling Fork, cycled down and then came back as the second, into Amory. The third followed about half an hour behind in a separate circulation and tracked a similar path to the SW of Amory, thankfully it doesn't look like it was too strong as I can't imagine what back to back large tornadoes would do in that quick succession. The radar grabs from the Amory tornado are insane, but funnily the Rolling Fork tornado looks to have inflicted much worse damage (not that that one looked weak!) Most likely the Rolling Fork tornado will get an EF4 rating, but the EF5 is certainly being talked about (I'm in Norman Oklahoma for reference)
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I've spotted some of the higher res models picking up on a pretty fierce squall line passing through on Sunday afternoon/evening depending how Far East you are. I expect it'll be talked about more and more later this evening as it looked quite impressive. AROME, UKV and UKMO showed it most clearly. Let's see what happens...
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Storm Eunice - 18th February
smichling replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The AROME model has been showing a feature that looks reminiscent of a stingjet crossing the midlands through to EA. So it’s a possibility but these are so difficult to forecast and it’s the only model showing it. Just keep updated! -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
smichling replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Don’t take my very vague forecast as gospel though! in all seriousness use the met office not what I or someone says here, however much we might want to be a pro forecaster we aren’t! -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
smichling replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Glad there's finally a red warning out, although I expect it'll grow this afternoon. Worth remembering that the current amber warning is already at the highest severity, only slightly down on confidence so the reasoning for a red upgrade would NOT be due to models showing stronger winds, but due to an increase in confidence. From this, I would expect a red to be issued this afternoon/evening if the sting jet feature is still present in the 12Z's. I would think it would stretch from APPROXIMATELY Kidderminster through Milton Keynes to Ipswich. The met are looking for confidence now not strength. -
Temperature at 3.8C in Reading. While I would say that's a touch too warm for snow chances, dewpoint has really fallen in the last hour, at -1.1C right now. Hopefully anything that falls overnight can make it as snow. Don't expect much to settle but will be a nice surprise in November to even see it falling.
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
smichling replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
I have a terrible lack of lampposts outside my university room! I might build one for myself outside if it looks like this cold is set to continue for a while! -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
smichling replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
In the build up to a cold spell or a snowy event, I'll always switch from the model thread to the regional as we get into the 'home stretch', and I think tonight is my cue to do that! -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
smichling replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi everyone, After all the flipping and flopping of the models, particularly the GFS over last weekend/early this week, I noticed a little pattern with them. I've demonstrated it in an EXTREMELY unscientific graph . The graph itself is quite self-explanatory but its fits in quite well with how this cold spell has come into view. Over the weekend we were approximately 8/9 days away (taking Sunday 7th as the start) and at that time we would see an amazing run, followed by an awful one, I think we had an excellent 12z one day, and after a run like that its almost INEVITABLE to have a downgrade succeed it, which we did with that pub run! Now I'd say we're at day 3/4, and we're seeing very slight adjustments on a general scale, but the general theme of cold is nailed on. (p.s. This graph is really only talking about large-scale trends, not precise tracks of lows or streamers etc.) In terms of the 'breakdown' of the cold spell, we're back at the start, say day 10. So one run we see the models go for a quick breakdown, and the next they want to extend the spell out longer, we might not get clarity on this when we're down to day 4/5, and by that point we'll be well into the spell, so my advice would be to enjoy what's about to happen whether its just cold, cold and snowy, or snowmageddon! Let's worry about the breakdown as and when! I fully understand I am way way way over-simplifying the complexity of the models and they all behave differently in different circumstances, but I found that to be a not bad template at keeping emotions in check, especially after a bad run, as it's only up from there! Hope it's sort of useful, James -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
smichling replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Precip edging closer as per radar, Temp 3.4C and DP -0.1C here, so I'm hoping it falls as snow. In Reading, 70m ASL -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
smichling replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Looking at the radar it looks to be back-building just a little bit? Maybe I'm kidding myself into seeing what I want to see! Was definitely expecting it to have stopped in Reading but seems to keep going -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
smichling replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Apologies, Reading -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
smichling replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
IMG_3726.MOV IMG_3727.MOV -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
smichling replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Unbelievable snow here right now! IMG_3724.MOV -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
smichling replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Throwing it down now here and just like that there’s a covering on the ground IMG_3723.MOV -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
smichling replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
We must be in different parts of Reading as it’s really coming down here! I’m at the university -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
smichling replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
We have snow in Reading now, seemed to take ages for it to arrive so hopefully that means it’ll stick around for a while! -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
smichling replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Snow should be starting any minute in Reading, I think I’m in a decent spot today, fingers crossed. Not a bad sunrise too! -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
smichling replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Sounds and looks like rain in Reading at the moment, I have a lack of lamp posts to look at! Almost certainly rain though, I thought I’d have to be up early for snow but I think I needed to stay up late! -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
smichling replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
It looks like the further North-East you are (within the South-East), the better your chances are tomorrow. I'm still searching for my first flakes of winter! Feels like the snow knows where I am as I was in North London but now at university in Reading, just in time for North London to be well placed! Still, on the bright side at least I 'should' see something tomorrow if I'm up early enough of course. Let's hope so. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards
smichling replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Hi everyone, and Merry Christmas! I was looking at the forecast for the next few days and spotted this symbol for Monday. I previously thought it was fog but it also shows heavy precipitation? (50% chance of snow too in fact!) Any help would be appreciated! On the subject of Monday's weather there seems like potential for some decent snow? I'll only believe the forecasts about 24 hours out when it comes to snow!