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Big Snow

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  1. Big Snow
    I love this forum but it drives me crackers sometimes. People spend years chasing a historic cold spell, and now one is on our doorstep, and people are wetting themselves over a breakdown that is six days away. I'll bet my house that low tracks much further south than the GFS shows. Seen it so many times. EDIT - Not my house, a fiver
  2. Big Snow
    Rob McElwee was the perfect presenter; the right mix of knowledge and gravitas. I always remember December 09 when he gave a really wintry forecast for the weekend, and signed off with: "Oh, and then there's Monday still to come..." And gave a little evil cackle.
  3. Big Snow
    Just wondering, what was the March 2013 letdown? A channel low that stayed south?
  4. Big Snow
    Yeah it's tricky for anyone further north and west in our region. I think there is a fair chance of streamers setting up which could benefit west / north-west London up into Bucks and Herts if the winds swings ESE. Think Feb 09.
  5. Big Snow
    I'm seeing the word 'marginality' for the south-east - forgive my ignorance but is that in reference to the low pressure system at the end of the week, as opposed to Monday-Wednesday?
  6. Big Snow
    You've answered your own worry. With such low DPs settling snow will not be a problem.
  7. Big Snow
    Ah, I stand corrected. I was in west London at the time and we had maybe 2cms; makes sense you might have had more. You're probably in a prime position for showers that drift down through East Anglia then.
  8. Big Snow
    Absolutely, I don't doubt most of us will see snow at some point, but always the heaviest to the east and south-east of central London.
  9. Big Snow
    I would imagine there will be quite a divide in London early next week. My sense is that east and south-east London could benefit from a Thames streamer; north and west London may miss out a on the heaviest and most persistent snow. Similar to December 1, 2010, when places like Bromley were buried, while north of the river there was a dusting. If I lived in north Kent right now I would be wetting myself with excitement.
  10. Big Snow
    I am also getting annoyed by the delay - don't get me wrong, it looks sensational...but I'm becoming more of a nervous wreck with each run!
  11. Big Snow
    Oops, 12Z. Had an attack of the vapours...
  12. Big Snow
    If the ECM 18Z was stellar...we've just gone interstellar.
  13. Big Snow
    Hi all, just a question for someone more knowlegable than me (that'll be most of you...) Regarding the colder air potentially slipping south, would that be caused by high pressure building from Greenland over the UK, as a result of a second bout of stratospheric warming, deflecting the colder air away from us? Might be way off the mark with that but trying to learn as I go!
  14. Big Snow
    The problem, as I see it, is not the accuracy of the models but people taking output at day 10 as gospel. It's called 'FI' for a reason - charts at that range almost never verify. Yet 90 per cent of the analysis on the MOD thread is of charts at extended range. No wonder people feel let down when the output changes. If people stuck to analysing charts within the 5-day timeframe there would be a lot less disappointment.
  15. Big Snow
    Thanks for explaining, much appreciated.
  16. Big Snow
    Hi all, I only have a very basic understanding of the charts and was wondering, what's the difference between the 'op' run and the 'control' run? Is there a difference in reliability etc? Cheers and keep up the great analysis.
  17. Big Snow
    Hi all, I'm a long-time lurker, lured by the (faint) prospect of snow on Sunday! Please ignore the graphic posted by Cheesrice, it's a forecast from 10 years ago, NOT this Sunday. See the forecast here... https://youtu.be/Vw_orgAJ0-4
  18. Big Snow
    He's on the wind-up mate, that forecast is from a snowfall in Feb 2007...
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