Snowjokes92

Im loving the new era of climate swings and extremes. Its starting to become the norm. I think this is what we will see more often extremes fron both ends hot and cold. Also worth noting the top models have shown there hottest runs ever all in one day

Its hard to believe on the back of summer 2018 we are seeing record breaking heat been modelled in the short term a year on! Its not something we have ever seen in the models and ive never seen all main models in agreement to something as extreme for us. If we dont get 40c i think it will prove its more possible to achieve than ever before.

So guys, the gfs 12z mean ALONE reaches a record high upper air temp of 22 degrees and thats just the mean!! Some runs manage to reach 26c!! Isnt that a big 3 or 4 degree jump from the record?!

Despite what surface the surface temps will be next week, its going to potentially feel hotter than 2003 or any other record breaker, as the upper air temps record is smashed on a lot of models, gfs in particular. Its smashed by a huge margin on recent gfs runs. So i agree we may not see the record go due to the conditions like cooler ground etc, buf the air mass and hunidity will make it feel exceptinal. But who knows these air temps never reached the uk so could be a big surprise next week. Its exciting

Some right continental heat breaking out as we go into June. Looks like the turning point for regular heat source to spew out in europe and we seem to be in a great position with the output in last 48 hours. Hottest days of the year look likely to be coming as we move towards next weekend or slightly earlier

Was gonna say here in west yorkshire winds starting to strengthen out of nowhere. Batten down could be a bad un this by sounds of it

Massive difference in temperatures compared to last year this time round. Anyone got comparisons for one of coldest of last feb at same as this years mild weather. Remember the windchill feel was sub -10 and comapare it to mid teens and possibly warmer in south, that is a massive difference in temperature and feel :0

Not my type of charts in the middle of febuary, but whatever your preference in february, the output is bonkers i cant get over the synoptics. Way above normal temps and little comparison to any very mild febs in the past which is even more unusual. Wonder what is in store for spring and summer

Its a rare site about channel low bringing snow southern northern england indeed. Parts of manchester and leeds could do well if the 6z is to be believed for tuesday and definetly end of the week

Anyone noticed the strong winds at the minute? It wasnt forecast to be this windy. Well at least where i am

What a silly thing to say winter officially began just short of a month ago we arent even halfway through yet!

When was this. I think minor changes in output will keep us in the cold air boundary. Similar to last winter when less cold weather occured

Maybe @Glacier Point can shed some light on the current wobble today? Im remaining upbeat, the 12z gefs ensemble are still very much all over after 5 days and rogue runs running to -10 line. Met office 12z to me would need a few tweets to get a decent easterly flow and it hasnt been the best at times at 120 and 144 hours recently. And i know it sounds like scraping barrel but gem more or less gets there? ECM is soon eyes down.

Omg..Just look at that massive lobe prime for europe and all the blocking on other side. Total opposite. Could be an incredible february..

What i find even more interesting is the most intense lobe mean is slap bang over us giving us the best chance at something very significant. A lot of long range models and ec 46 have been showing a similar lobe over the uk. We must have the best chance of another 1947 surely. And whats more all the combinated background signals are not comparable with any other year. It really does make you wonder what the potential implifications it would have with everything in the right place...

Im not saying SSW are a guarntee a path to cold for the UK in particular, my concern is how none of the models are showing hardly any impact to the polar vortex even into the future.

Anyone looked at p5 on the ensembles, there may have been better ones, but the extremity is striking look at the lobe to the northeast and the potential. Not seen anything that cold, so close to are shores for a while:

6z and gefs 6z suite just wow. The pendulum is swinging isnt it ? If things are to go in are favour we could be already see easterly winds swinging in a matter of a week according the gefs suites. Whats interesting is the sudden turn arounds on things in short term. Reminds me of last winter. There is some bonkers reversal patterns showing in the 6z. Not many go full blown blocked, a few bring the cold soon and some later. But the 6z definetly show we are in with a chance of a quite severe cold spell along wth rest of europe. Here are some of the ensembles and just show possible lasting impacts of global weather patterns.

Thank you. Its a shame really and always found her posts interesting and informative and non biased. @Bring Back1962-63 could you possibly link her post over to us? Thanks

I would if i knew how to do it. Trust me i did try to find how to quote only a bit of the lengthy post

Which post by tamara are you referring to? I cant see it. There a good read like many of you

I gather from your post, from a noob on SSW, that we could be in for some eye candy on wetterzentrale in the morning?

Can anyone remember for comparison how the models handled the output a few days before the SSW last winter? So we can compare similarities to the output now and get am idea on how it may affect model output

What date does the ssw officially start? Just to add look at how uncertain the models were last winter with the ssw. I think things will start unearthing soon. I believe we are in uncharted territory and the models are struggling to get grips on it. The models are flipping from zonal to blocked scenarios. Thats quite a difference in patterns for the northern hemisphere on a wide scale, so that just says it all. Things are likely to change

What does this mean though for an amateur perspective? With some of the posts and models predictions ive seen in this thread, it sounds like we are in an unknown territory with this unusual ssw. It sounds like it could make a major inpact on the northern hemisphere