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Everything posted by N/A

  1. Shame, a max of 7C and min 4C is forecast during that time in Tenby = cold rain or sleet if we're lucky
  2. Tbf you can never calculate a windchill temperature from a chart. The only accurate way is measure the actual 'in the shade temperature' against the wind speed where you're at and then work it out using the formula. After all some streets, bays, beaches etc... can often feel mild or even warm while others exposed to wind can feel cold or very cold even if it's just yards away!
  3. Could be but also the Pembrokeshire Dangler is notorious for feeding in a real mixed bag of rain, sleet, snow or hail showers with even thunder & lightning from off the Irish Sea. This scenario can last for many hours or even days in a slow moving weather pattern which brings some impressive precipitation totals
  4. And it looks like it's that Pembrokeshire Dangler which will bring the heaviest precipitation when comparing the total accumulated precip chart with the convective precip chart
  5. Some decent cold, snowy weather around next week but it's a shame the GFS brings milder air back in next weekend, brief I know but it does shunt the coldest air eastwards away from the UK which puts us back in the polar maritime air which is often very disappointing for my area snow-wise. Anyway we still have much of next week to enjoy across the UK & Ireland, if you like the cold that is
  6. With sea temperatures almost at their coldest that could be great news for here in Pembrokeshire as well as other western coastal areas who so far have seen diddly squat
  7. That front over Ireland looks interesting for us in west Wales nevertheless that's still a cold chart even if it will be dry. Could well be heading for the coldest weather we've seen for several years!
  8. Yes it seems like the uncertainty continues on the models because here in southwest Wales its still showing 8C & 4C for Monday
  9. Exceptional charts again today, GFS 6z show 850mb temps of -8 / -9C for Wales next Tuesday afternoon but at the same time the BBC forecast for here in Tenby is showing 8C with unbroken sunshine. Now either the models are disagreeing with each other or that's one hell of a very steep lapse rate which may end up triggering off some heavy, thundery showers!
  10. I agree as it's similar for Tenby Pembrokeshire between 6-9C and apart from light showers Saturday it's dry with sunny spells. Now that could be the result of an easterly as it often brings drier, sunnier weather to the west but as temperatures are measured in the shade not in direct sunlight, I'd have thought it would still be colder than suggested tbh
  11. Ooh when's that for? I'm looking forward to some drier weather here in southwest Wales after all this rain we've had recently for these saturated fields to dry out a bit and river levels to fall.
  12. That high pressure is still there across the south but nevertheless a wet Saturday is likely, GFS suggests a dry Sunday but BBC weather forecasts light rain & fog, both show wet weather for Wales on Monday but drier in southern England and after a dry start to Tuesday, yet more wind & rain arrives although perhaps staying dry during daylight hours. Not exactly what you'd expect from a fairly strong area of high pressure but it's happened quite a few times since last October and when the pressure starts to fall, the weather improves again lol
  13. So am I right in saying the coast of south Pembrokeshire can expect about 10-20mm in the next week? If so that's a big improvement after 27mm fell last Sunday alone!
  14. Oh no way! We're long overdue a snowy not stormy Feb. Mind you having said that, I wouldn't compare this winter with 13/14 and say it's similar as I'm sure it was much milder and wetter as opposed to our relatively quiet December followed by about average January temperatures this year so far tbh
  15. No probably not but it does bring in colder air which if timed right, could turn any rain moving in from the Atlantic to snow (transient at least) as it hits the cold block of air. This set up has brought some of our best snow events on the coasts anyway. Regarding the flooding, what you said is absolutely true and with yet more rain due this weekend it's going to get a bit worse before it gets better I think.
  16. To be fair though southern England and SE Wales looks dry on that chart
  17. gfs12 next week we have a mix of some mild days and colder days. Coldest looks to be Friday while the mildest on Tuesday although it looks unlikely to be as mild as it was today when some western areas reached 13-14C despite the rain
  18. Oh yes! Now if that happens without a strong jet barrelling the lows across us maybe just maybe we could start the building blocks for a cold February here in the south with hopefully a dusting of snow at the very least
  19. Well this week has certainly has been a kick in teeth for all us coldies in the S&SW UK to say the very least but I can assure you Daniel it's been colder in London than here in Tenby. I said as soon as they mentioned it,that this heavily modified polar maritime airmass is rubbish for us and were therefore very unlikely to see any snow away from high ground and unfortunately that was the case. Since 1st January we've had 4 rounds of severe gales damaging buildings including mine, cars, trees as well as bad coastal flooding in places. The wind obviously not so strong in London being inland
  20. A welcome relief from all the cold, rainy and very windy weather we've had in southwest Wales though. Good to see the lows shifting north again to give us a decent break from anymore severe gales
  21. Can't upload charts but it looks much milder for a time next week too with highs of 11-13C in South Wales & Southern England, high single figures elsewhere.
  22. Ooh high pressure yes please, come to me my friend , so let's see if the 12z will continue to take the lows and their gales north and allow a decent break from the frequent gales that's battered the south in the last fortnight
  23. As I expected for us in southern UK we have done poor from this set up of cold zonal rubbish with 4 lots of severe gales so far this month. It's good to see hints of a pattern change occurring next week when the jet stream transfers northwards taking the gales with it.
  24. GFS 12z shows a wedge of cold air across us by the end of next week with fleeting cold spells mixed with milder air. Getting much more exciting now for coastal areas with eastern parts of the Bristol Channel currently being one of the coldest areas of water in the UK, down to a very cold 5C that's the coldest I've seen for a number of years, IMO it's only a matter of time before we see at least a dusting of snow.
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