Summerstorm
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Everything posted by Summerstorm
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Could do with that LP system pushing through instead of stalling off the East Coast of America through to the end of the run might get the AH ridge out of the way especially if we want a quicker evolution. As is always said the longer way is always riskier more things to go wrong Although we get there in the end though.
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Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
Summerstorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wouldn't say it's awful still some cooler uppers in there still the possibility of Cold Zonality imo. Which depending on what happens can still bring Southern Areas in, I'd be happy there is a small chance there rather than standard Zonality. Also you need to look at the trends of a run as a whole as Mike said rather than a single frame. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Summerstorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
WAA from the second low off the American Seaboard helping to promote the Azores ridge in towards Scandi? -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Summerstorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Summerstorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The weather outlook site has twelve hour intervals on the UKMO runs plus the 168hrs chart if that helps -
Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022
Summerstorm replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Well the war over how far south or north the Xmas low pressure will go continues to rage on Looking at longer term developments below there is a few things to look out for. Way out in FI and unlikely to come of but GFS exploring the Scandi route eventually, wonder if this is a trend we should look out for during into the first half of January. In the meantime as mentioned in the other discussion stratospheric developments may also be something to keep an eye on as we go through the rest of winter. A displacement would seem within the realms of possibility and depending on where the vortex is displaced could have big consequences be it bad or good depending on your weather preference. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Summerstorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You thinking WAA from the LP system and retrogression from Greenland sending height rises into Scandi? -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Summerstorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
An improvement slight shift south would see parts of the Midlands and North/Mid Wales into contention. -
Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022
Summerstorm replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Maybe time to start looking at the period after Christmas? As long blocking stays strong there is the potential of a NE/Nly flow after the LP system runs through the UK will be looking for a similar evolution to the GEM. -
Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022
Summerstorm replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Think some of us are looking for non-biased posts as well and that's all I'll say hopefully the ECM in a while is good for everyone. In the meantime GEM still looks good out to day 10 with strong blocking still over Greenland maybe we should look for longevity instead of this potentially fruitless pursuit for Christmas Day. -
Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022
Summerstorm replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Not so great for Xmas Day/Boxing Day but thereafter the low moves east and allows a cooler flow Ah @Kasim Awan beat me to it -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Summerstorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Summerstorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yet again GFS overdoing the low 10mbs lower pressure a just 72 hours out compared to the UKMO -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Summerstorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Going for a N/NE at Day 10 with a Channel Low running across the South giving the goods for those complaining not sure about the moans with this run should give some snow to most people. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Summerstorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The ridge behind the second low should sort that problem out if events were to transpire this way. Knowing the GFS though it'll just blow another low off the Eastern Seaboard. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Summerstorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just at 96 hours and the GFS already has the low 10mbs lower than the UKMO. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Summerstorm replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah this is the evolution I would much rather we had. Sliders galore and it even teased a low dropping from North to South. I mused to myself before the pub run last night and wondered if this solution would be on the table if we get an ridge behind this LP system later on. Of course it wouldn't be Netweather without the pram throwing would it now