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convector

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Everything posted by convector

  1. convector
    I don't see anything happening today, with the dew points so low. none of the models appear to support of the weather warning either
  2. convector
    first of the day kicking off in the south west
  3. convector
    Found myself in a similar situation when I tried to core punch a cell near Coventry. Ended up getting stuck in rugby; the rain there was intense with hail around marble size. Lots of flooding made it hard to find a route of town to keep chasing. As it stands, I'm watching this line of storms cycle from a vantage point nearby. Might drop south east or see what's on the other side.
  4. convector
    Currently heading west along the m4, stopped at membury services when it became clear I wasn't catching those cells near bath. Probably just going to wait until the next wave of storms arrive and go from there. These setups are always so troublesome.
  5. convector
    this weekend's looking interesting
  6. convector
    It's all just sitting around the convergence zone in high wycombe - i don't know how to chase this. Anyone know any viewpoints in the area?
  7. convector
    it's probably because these storms are elevated
  8. convector
    i wouldn't bother, there's plenty of better setups this week and the next
  9. convector
    Didn't see much today besides cloudscapes this evening. Looks like they'll be plenty of opportunities however, the 12z gfs keeps instability around for the entire rest of the month.
  10. convector
    Is it just me or does this cell to the SW look like a supercell?
  11. convector
    Arome and Netwx bring the storms further south on the 18z.
  12. convector
    The metoffice has a shortwave across central England Saturday night - could be enough to kick off some elevated storms.
  13. convector
    The end of next week looks promising. High cape values thursday/friday on some models but will likely be anti-cyclonically capped until the weekend at least. GFS 6z was keeping warm air advection around into the week after, with low pressure closer to the UK, but the 12z is completely different of course. Too soon to tell right now, but at least 2018 storm season is finally within our sights
  14. convector
    Possibility of a kent clipper/channel storms monday night into tuesday, early hours. Only really showing up on the WRF and GFS, however. Other models don't seem to be very good at forecasting CAPE, at least in early spring. ICON, for example, doesn't show any CAPE for the times given but performs well when it comes to precipitation. I only have a few years of experience, so if anyone can explain why i'd be very interested. Anyway, next week looks promising in general, albeit marginal, but I'll take what i can get at this time of year.
  15. convector
    Panorama's can be deceptive; there's no way to tell whether this is a supercell from those photos alone. It did, however, consistently produced lightning over a large linear distance between Leicester and Norwich, which implies the storm had a mesocyclone.
  16. convector
    The MCS looks epic on radar - wow! Hoping i'll see a little more with round 2, but even those don't seem on course.
  17. convector
    This thing is a beast! Surprised how little lighting it's putting out.
  18. convector
    The movement is really unpredictable on this thing, it's no wonder the models have a hard time. If only the general public could grasp this - tonight would be a great example of why storms aren't so easily forecast.
  19. convector
    That MCS is really wrapping up now, with main ppn bowing north - it's teasing me! Tempted to chase but i feel like it'll suddenly change course again.
  20. convector
    Thanks for the suggestions. Looking at the radar loop though, it seems to be heading more north at this point due to the rotation. I'm still not so sure, though - it's a tough one to call..
  21. convector
    anyone here know any good viewpoints along the a34?
  22. convector
    Until today, i wouldn't have even expected development until much later. Far too early to call it a bust for central/SE.
  23. convector
    The storm over the channel has started to take on an interesting form. Is it possible for an MCS become a bow echo, or does it already fall under that category?
  24. convector
    yeah, the thing with these is that it'll appear to be moving due north, but then make a right turn, clipping kent.
  25. convector
    That MCS over the channel looks rather impressive on radar - might be worth compiling a gif later.
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