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convector

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    oxford, uk

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  1. Went chasing today but can't really say i saw much. My target area was around the wash (any further north was hard to justify) - I arrived in peterborough around 4:30 just in time to catch some cells to my SE moving north. Driving to wisbech along the A47 i saw a few CG strikes, but most of the activity was way up in cloud tops somewhere. They weren't very potent actually - in fact, the storms ii chased a couple weeks ago were much better with far less instability. I put it down to a lack of shear and forcing in particular - maybe the upper mid levels were a little dry too idk. Bit disappointing, however i did get some footage and a nice cumulonimbus in the evening as i was heading back.
  2. netweather model going for gold tomorrow ? hoping for a good chase around the wash
  3. Hope someones chasing that supercell near nottingham. could've chased today but its been back to back storms in the NW for the last 3 days and im nackered ? Have to drive back to oxford after each chase cause hotels are shut (maybe i should sleep out of the car or something haha)
  4. Arome 12z still calling for development late evening as temps cool off and dews rise slightly from the SE. (strange that the uk/ireland version doesnt have this though)
  5. struggling to see the potential tomorrow looking at the charts - shear looks good but not much in the way of instability or anything in terms of a trigger...
  6. how did you get access to real weather balloon data? i can usually only find forecast skew-t's
  7. All set for a good chase if the weather stays favourable - another lincs / east anglia setup by the looks of it. Fuel prices below a pound right now so i'm down to travel far.
  8. Does anyone know why storms happen less often now i.e. less plume events in the last decade or so? (or at least point me in the right direction to find out)
  9. Why do our seasons suck so much now? The last five years have been awful for storms which leads me to believe there must be some long term processes at play - things like solar cycles (currently minimum), AMO phases (currently positive) and possibly even coal power stations closing down (water vapour from cooling towers could cause storm initiation). With my limited knowledge of meteorology i can only think that a lack of storms is due to lower instances of cut off lows and similar patterns which lead to moisture advection and heat from the south. High pressure seems more dominant now making summer a hot a dry affair. I wonder if anyone can shed some light on this.
  10. i think people overestimate what it takes to form a supercell in this country...
  11. does indeed look like a low topped supercell or at least something with mild rotation - you can see it in the lightning trail - the movement is more southerly than surrounding cells
  12. Well that's a bad idea, i'd rather be in kent tonight than where i am...
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