Snowy Hibbo

Of course I can give it to you. I didn't have enough time to post it, but there it is. Looks fairly neutral for the UK.

Interesting. Thanks for that.

Fair enough. What I am saying is that it could be weaker than a normal -QBO phase. I had a chat with Paul Roundy on Twitter and he said that the EC model prediction is probably not enough to forecast a QBO reversal properly. Which I agree with, just noting patterns I am watching.

The NMME above doesn't look great for the UK. Mostly neutral precipitation and above average temps. For those who don't know what the NMME is, it is a mixture of the CanSIPS and CFS seasonal ensembles. EC Seasonal forecasts (paid forecasts) are below. MSLP forecasts for Europe. December is progged to have ridging over the UK, particularly to the north. January shows troughing to west of the UK, with potential Atlantic influence. February shows a ridge over the UK. Very interesting prog, next month's one could be interesting.

Here is the QBO forecast, which is in easterly mode at the moment. But this forecast hints at a slight weakening of the -QBO. Other things of note, the SAO jet is strengthening in it's current positive mode. Same with the jetstream over the Northern Hemisphere. This seems to somewhat correspond with the current +AO (stronger polar vortex), that is set to continue for the next 10 days at least, with longer term charts (GFS) showing a potential move to neutral AO. EPS Control also shows a weakening of the easterly QBO jet over the 10-15 day period. Interesting, will the QBO follow fthe forecast? Will the 'failed' easterly phase happen again?

The QBO looks to weaken from it's westerly phase over the next few weeks. EPS Control Zonal Wind Anomaly below. +00 +360

There are some signs of frontal activity towards the end of the month. EPS Control suggests the period beyond the 20th to be cold for SE Australia. But too early to call...