MattStoke
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Everything posted by MattStoke
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GFS a touch further south too, so far....
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MKN Arpege with snow right down to just to the north and west of London. I think those warnings might need adjusted south again!
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Big shift from the 6z to the 12z. Stays mostly as snow.
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Not surprising to see the ICON increasing the snow risk. Often a step behind the other models.
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I remember Atlantic 252 146m where I live and 109m where I work. Not normally a problem. I'm wondering if the removal of the warnings may be partly down to a warm sector shown to develop just west of the Peak District. However, I see that modelled on every snow event and it's not normally an issue in Stoke.
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Carinthian's comment on the snow risk worth a share.
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andy_leics22 GFS, I think. TWO shows the same and I know that is raw GFS data.
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weirpig Agreeing with the Arpege. Is this the French saying sorry stealing these lows earlier in the winter?
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UKMO 6z looks crud according to the chart posted in the Mod thread
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AltonMatthew
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sheikhy Indeed. MO are just wrong to remove the warning here. Not for the first time. Could maybe be that there's a slight warm sector shown just to the west of me but I've seen that many times on modelling before and its meant rain over the Cheshire plain but not here.
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Nothing to see here
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Eskimo Not unless the Peak District has been stretched out southwards. It shows 4cm of snow over me and it's normally one of the few models to be conservative with snow.
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Seem to get more snow here when there isn't a warning, anyway ICON again shows that there really should be a warning here.
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MKN Every publicly available model shows significant snow here. I'm completely confident that they're wrong.
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Snow warning cancelled Assume they're writing up a new one. Tension builds! Edit: OK, no. They've actually just removed the warning for me. Bizarre given the model output. Disagree with that entirely.
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andy_leics22 Ironically, the GFS now has snow cover hanging on here through the weekend whereas other models show it melting away. Maybe snowy scenes will give ideas for baby names
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andy_leics22 On the flip side, it seems to be rare that we get snowfall during the day time. Will make a nice change to see it.
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sheikhy Good for central and north Midlands. Some large totals shown but likely to be brief as milder air pushes up from the south Thursday night. Here are all the models that run out far enough.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
MattStoke replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ali1977 That’s Monday’s UKV. Here is today’s.
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I’d snap someone’s hand off for the GFS output but it’s nothing like previous runs. No consistency from it.
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GFS has changed massively compared to other models. It’s always the worst performing model in this situation. I don’t know why people get hung up on it and claim it’s been most consistent when it plainly hasn’t. The 0z has me still with snow cover into next week. Previous runs didn’t even bring any snow. Anyway, on a more cheery note, the Arpege is an improvement.
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Dancerwithwings Wouldn’t kick it out of bed.
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Dancerwithwings Stoke has spoiled me! A poor winter here but way better than 95% of the country.
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Metwatch That shows snow for Stoke. Not just the Peak District. ICON is cannon fodder, though, and the GFS performs very poorly in these scenarios. It’s changed hugely from its previous runs.
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