MattStoke
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Everything posted by MattStoke
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Annoyingly, the models have trended a bit further north at the last minute which reduces the chances away from the north of the region.
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Metwatch I'll be amazed if snow doesn't settle here.
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andy_leics22 Some models have the precipitation clearing by then, ahead of the next band later in the night or during Friday. That's the best we can hope for. Don't want it to turn to rain before it's had a chance to lay for a few hours.
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andy_leics22 Evaporative cooling once precipitation is heavy enough.
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GokouD BBC app almost always shows sleet when Stoke gets snow.
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Sleet, be gone!
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MKN Around 5cm here is my guess. Higher parts of Stoke maybe 5-10cm.
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sheikhy UKV 6z might brighten your day.
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Shame to see the Arpege backtrack inline with the other models.
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Amber warning doesn't surprise me. Some pretty big totals just to the north and east of Stoke on the models.
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Got my warning back! Don't know why it was ever removed. Also an Amber warning tantalisingly close to my east.
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andy_leics22 It's a shame I don't drive. Places like Leek and more so Buxton will get pummelled.
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andy_leics22 Some models give quite a few cm where I live in Longton but little in Shelton where I work, and I'll be stuck at work all day. That would be frustrating.
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The Harmonie has clearly nailed this.
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sheikhy ECM great for here. Meteologix.com is good for here if you want a more detailed view on where models are showing snow risk etc.
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I remember Atlantic 252 GFS has significant snow here and none just to the north west. They all do. Removal of warning looks wrong to me. UKV just updated. For some reason, TWO puts my location as the red dot but Stoke is north and slightly east of that.
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UKMO 0z. Similar to other models. Significant snow across Stoke but nothing just to the north west of Stoke. Warning. Doesn’t cover Stoke but does cover places just to the north west of Stoke. Total nonsense.
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Downward trend in temperature for Thursday, continues. No need for a warning, though
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GFS shows how frustrating this could be as the cold air stalls just a few miles to the north and east of me all through Thursday night into Friday. Never seems to stall just 10 miles further south.
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ICON 18z slightly further south again.
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Arpege mean is just daft. Must be some members that keep it really far south.
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GFS raw data for my postcode.
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I’ve found the Harmonie model decent for predicting snow the past couple of winters.
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Zoomed out view of GFS. 12z vs 6z.
