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Northwest NI

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

     The reason  is because it has been nearly 20 years since I last experienced a white Christmas.  I would normally be more optimistic, but given  the current guidance it 's not look likely we will see a white Christmas.  I appreciate that could  change but then surely we would  be seeing signs of it in the extended . All the indications so far are for a northern toppler that could deliver to some areas, but any cold is likely to be transient in that scenario.  I will get over not having a white Christmas, if we get a proper cold spell during what's left of peak winter. 

    How on earth did you miss out on 2009 & 2010? Both white Christmas here.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    This has long been my assumption, albeit the long range Euro ensemble mean is still probably more accurate than most similar length models and I don't believe it's a corporate product at that range (i.e. they can afford to get it wrong and revise so long as they get the first 1-3 weeks).

    That last sentence is correct. By the time the time has passed and ongoing revisions made, nobody remembers what it once said. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    As another chase begins, you can’t help but reflect on the contortions we need to go through, to get cold to our part of the world. Basically it does not want to come here and it takes a veritable jigsaw puzzle to be completed. The inevitable happens and the forum goes back to 2 posts an hour.

    On the other hand, any mild, wet, windy weather programmed comes sweeping through the doors saying ‘hi, it’s me’ like some very unwelcome in law on Christmas morning.

    But here I am, reporting for duty, on the next chase!

     

    IMG_1394.thumb.png.1a3438b4942df42662f244f39cf8ce14.png

     

     

    • Like 16

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    in Ireland Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, booferking said:

    Yep we never seem to benefit from slack easterlies and frontal system breakdowns give me a roaring northerly anyday.

    The Northwesterly last  January 16-21st was great in this neck of the woods. All of the above were snow days with no visible melt. So agree about straight Northerly but we can do reasonably well from a NW as well.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Which will not happen with this setup, especially this early in the season. 

    Low land snow will not happen from showers with this airmass. You’re going to be waiting weeks for hemispheric conditions to be right for that, by which time it’s likely this cold pattern for north west Europe will be gone.

    And this is not me showing ‘imbyism’ (which no-one has a problem with when it’s from people in the far south exclaiming that we should all want ‘X’). It is possible to get snow showers where I am from this setup (Although even here it’s marginal) because I don’t live in a low lying area.

    All of which is fine as your preference. Personally prefer no snow to wet slushy snow that’s melting as soon as it stops falling. We had several inches of snow last January in an otherwise forgettable winter. It hung around for 5 days without melting. That’s what I’m after.

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    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

    Left high and dry. The highest snow risk for many, reducing. Still don’t understand the logic of snow fans being happy with that.

    It’s been explained a few times by people. We’d rather be patient with the cold and wait for snow that isn’t battleground or borderline. At the end of the day it’s just a different preference to yours. Best wishes.

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    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Northwest NI

    10 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    The North Sea is modifying this airmass a lot, you can really see that on the 12z ICON if you run the animation. Notice how a deeper sub -15C pool moves across Scandinavia, reaches the North Sea and just evaporates.

    animqaj1.thumb.gif.b9b3bf369c131f3956528f94f21ab571.gif

    Does the extent of “evaporation” of cold there not seem a bit unrealistic to you in spite of the early season North Sea temperature? It does to me.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    What the snowmaker? Its a potential corker Ali.

    We appear to stand in a better place this morning with the output..I did urge caution over last nights 18z run,as it seems to throw out far to many wild swings in output.

    For me if this could kind of scenario could hold till Xmas week then it would be a win win situation if it cancelled out the inlaws from coming 🤔 

    Also will be interesting what the met put out in the coming 48hrs and to see if little warnings start appearing and I'm feeling this is quite probable.

    gensnh-23-1-192.png

    O6ZdBX.gif

    That in laws comment ❤️😂

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