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    London and Perthshire
  • Interests
    Skiing, mountaineering, rugby, triathlon and meteorology
  • Weather Preferences
    Polar lows are the dream

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  1. @Mucka - with respect, I don't think you're framing this correctly. Everything you say about CO2 being a trace gas is true. As is the fact that the Earth (and life on it) will cope just fine over geological timescales even if humans push the planet's average temperatures into a warmer stable-state. That said, thinking about this issue from a geological perspective ignores the crux of the issue, which is the suffering - human and non-human - that it will cause in the coming decades and centuries. Rather than worrying about whether it's important that you "do your bit" and buy an
  2. Latest blog from the guys at the NSIDC: Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag NSIDC.ORG Even they are talking about ozone in relation to Arctic warming this month!
  3. The excellent NSIDC blog has just updated with this month’s post now live. Contains the normal summary and a good, concise review of the 2010s from a sea ice point of view: Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag NSIDC.ORG
  4. I've been thinking about this too... There is a theory (and evidence) that links anthropogenic global warming with stratospheric cooling. The latter influences the strength and speed of the tropospheric polar vortex (tPV), keeping it colder and tighter, with faster winds circulating around it (the polar night jet), which protect it from destabilising interactions with other parts of the troposphere. As the PV increases in strength and the boundary between polar and sub-tropical air (the polar front jet) is sucked ever further north, the sub-tropical (semi-permanent) high pressure sy
  5. If I’m honest, I’d take the GFS over the ECM at day 10. The former at least has us in a W’ly flow with temperatures close to average in the north and snowfalls piling into Scotland’s mountains at times... ECM on the other hand sets us up for a protracted battle between a MLB and Atlantic troughing, which will likely result in nowt but an extended spell of long-draw southerly winds. Bring on rampant zonality, I say...at least we’ll get some Pm air in the flow from time to time and can hope that the jet works its way south later on in the month, giving us a better ratio of Pm:Tm
  6. Latest NSIDC blog out for November. The month had the second lowest ice extent on record, though according to the NSIDC's passive microwave satellite data extent is now up to the third lowest for the time of year, ahead of 2016 & 2006 (I'll be watching 2026 with interest...!). Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag NSIDC.ORG
  7. Thanks for the continued updates MIA. Great to see the Kara nearly full...hopefully the natural shield of NZ will protect the ice from any warm Atlantic incursions! A relief to see the Chucki making sustained big gains at last, too. Re MOSAIC - were they not expecting to have to heat the ship with their diesel engines? Slightly distressing to think they're burning so many tonnes of fossil fuels each day in the High Arctic, and contaminating the ice with soot, etc. I'm also amazed they didn't think the engine's outputs would contaminate their experiments...that seems a massive ov
  8. Net positive snow cover anomaly in the NH at the moment. Expect the reds in N and E Europe to grow in the next 7 - 10 days though, sadly, as warmer air moves north into this part of the world. Hopefully the Kara will finish freezing before this happens...seems to be icing over mighty quick right now. Interesting spell of weather coming up, with some signals for the PV to migrate over to the E. Siberian side of the pole in a week or so. Still seems quite a fluid situation so will be hard to predict where we'll be, in terms of a hemispheric pattern, as we approach Decembe
  9. Thanks for another update MIA, it is certainly nice to see the Kara sea freezing over so quickly this year, and indeed the whole NE Atlantic area rallying somewhat. I just find it so sad that in these days of global heating, the Arctic's cold seems to have to pick its battles. If one region sees average or below average temperatures it is now always offset by anomalous/extreme warmth elsewhere. The days of getting sustained below average temperatures on both sides of the pole seem to be behind us. Only 30 years ago, the ice north of Barrow Point, Alaska, would some summers bare
  10. Really enjoying this thread - thanks to all who keep it going so reliably! Those who haven't seen this website before, but are interested in this topic, will enjoy this: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ Its a blog, updated every month or so, about conditions in the far north. It provides a good overview of how low the extent is at the moment, relative to historic averages. But it also notes the increased ice and cold around Svalbard, which has been lacking in recent years. Indeed, it is one of the few times in the last ten years that I've seen the Norwegian Met Service record
  11. With signs of a pronounced Arctic high now appearing consistently around the 10 day mark, pushing the polar vortex lobes further apart, I started to wonder how unusual this winter has been in terms of a lack of polar vortex integrity...? Realise this is slightly off topic (sorry mods) but I’d be particularly interested to hear from some of the experienced guys and gals on here about this...when was the last time we had an early winter period with such a weak, uncohesive vortex? Maybe it happens all the time and I’m just too new to the game to have been aware...
  12. How unusual is it to see the polar vortex this disrupted / amassing over the Russian Arctic at this time of year? Normally its setting up somewhere near Greenland and Baffin Island... Does this link to @Steve Murr's insights about the increasing lack of ice in the Barents/Kara seas?? Be interesting to see if it has any ramifications for the U.K. in terms of northern blocking etc. as we head into winter.
  13. I think that there is a difference between shifting the blocking and sinking it. The block is still very much there and hasn't been shifted further east all winter really (unfortunately), but it does look to sink south as lower heights are slightly too far west to prop it up. ECM at least gives us a crumb of comfort and one way in which the block could still deliver cold later on this month.
  14. The reason I like this GEM chart so much is that the low to the W of Iberia shuts the door to any meddling heights from the Azores high ridging into Europe and keeping the freezer door shut for the far west of Europe. I am concerned though, that given the Azores high's propensity to ridge into Iberia/France all winter that the ECM's solution might be closer to the money and the Scandi high will eventually sink a bit further south than we want if it is snow we are after. Really hope I am wrong.
  15. Large amounts of uncertainty clearly persisting into the medium range this morning, but the ECM gets to a place that I feel looks promising. If those height rises near Hudson Bay verify as per the 00Z run and we see the most potent segment of the polar vortex dropping in around Svalbard for a while then the dice could quickly start to roll in our favour. As energy then starts to head SE and potent cold builds up to the north it could be the perfect antidote to the mid-latitude blocking boredom we've had to endure for the winter so far. Next few days will be interesting to see if this is a
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