LRD

Dunno why everyone's stressing. This cold spell is nailed. Of course, how long it lasts and where it snows (significant falls) is not

He also emphasised the word 'slightly' when he mentioned lower resolution. Seemed to deliberately make a point of it I mean I dunno but I'd assume they know what they're talking about

Sounded pretty confident to me re next week's pattern. Obviously can't nail down where in the UK is going to get hit by significant snow. That's unrealistic at this range

EC46 still looking pretty solid for potential cold right into mid-Feb Apart from week of 22 Jan where it turns warmer (tying in with what Met4Cast says above)

Yeah, as I say, it's nothing to worry about and just reflects what the Met Office are now saying - battleground UK basically. I predict some snow-rain-snow events next week for the south. Basically all snow north of a line from Manchester to Hull

That's what I was thinking. MOGREPS not great. But it's all very volatile at the moment so no worries yet

Ensembles are actually pretty good. A bit better than the 6z (this is up to 21st)

Despite the ridiculous snowfall progged for the middle of next week I actually think the 12z runs are a bit of a disappointment (aside from UKMO and even that has Iberian heights on the rise) The 6z ensembles were warmer than the 0z and I wouldn't be surprised to see the 12z ensembles become warmer still Don't think it's anything to be concerned about as it's just waxing and waning within an overall pattern that looks like delivering cold. But a step back again this evening. My confidence is still high that a memorable cold spell can still happen GFS control goes west-based which I think is the biggest threat to this cold spell - not micro-level shortwaves or whatever we call them

Indeed. And it's still ok for very late Jan into Feb anyway Daily It's been very consistent over the last week but tonight it's not as good for UK cold. But, as Ali has pointed out, it was run with earlier data so may flip back to better tomorrow evening It's not to be totally trusted, of course, but it's a model by the respected ECM and well worth keeping an eye on I reckon

EC46 Good for this week and next Week of 22 Jan is a complete flip to mild with high anomalies to our south Rest of run toys with ideas of high anomalies being to our west and/or NW. But the signal isn't quite as robust as it has been. No signal for scandi heights, which is a shame Overall more good than bad for UK cold but it's a bit 'meh' compared to what it has been showing previously

I disagree - vortex over the eastern hemisphere, pressure relatively high on the western side. It's a good profile. Irrelevant debating it at this range though

Exactly right I suspect it's barking up the wrong tree here but never rule out the ECM being right even if it's going against every other model My confidence-o-meter for cold has gone down from 95% to 85%

Yep. Look at the NH profile - and the UK still ends up mild-ish and probably wet! You've got to laugh

Canadian Low will just flatten everything though. No point over-analysing this far out but it's a very disappointing ECM tonight (in its later frames). Its ensembles and EC46 will be interesting The fact that Met Office see cold and the NOAA charts that John Holmes uses also do, coupled with the fact that the other ops are good means we shouldn't worry too much at this stage. Fascinating watching this all play out

NIck F rightly expressed concern over Iberian heights rearing their ugly head again. And that chart illustrates that nicely. Probably cos the Azores Low just meanders about instead of moving into S Europe

Very poor ECM again Not losing confidence yet but there's no getting away from the deterioration in its op runs. Have the teleconnective signals led us up a garden path I wonder? Or is something working to over-ride them?

Hahahaha! Post of the week!

Correct. Now, if the background signals have been forecast incorrectly or if something like, say, climate change is doing things we don't understand yet, well... But there's a reason that MOST of the Met Office's mid-range forecasts are essentially correct (whatever the MO-bashers might say) - they use background signals.

Shortwaves don't collapse a pattern. Unless the teleconnections and other broadscale stuff allow it. The broadscale stuff doesn't suggest that at the moment

It's way out in FI but GFS op looks like it wants to try another attempt to send heights to Greenland. Let's see if that pans out

So the early results in from the 12z ops ICON should lead to something very cold GEM is getting us very cold by day 9 UKMO - looks on track to produce cold GFS - poor but still cool/cold

GFS looks like it's producing another poor run. Not ideal but not concerned either

I must be misreading it and that is possible as I'm not great with those charts but it looks like the blocking is strengthening from 6-10 to 8-14. Contour lines opening up more, reds going further north But, as I say, I might be wrong on that

Absolutely nothing wrong with it

Anyway if I'm allowed to post these 'cos it goes beyond 144, here is the ECM 850s spaghetti for MBY: Good clustering around the -7/-8 from about the 14th/15th. Some warmer runs appearing at the end (as there are on the GFS) so that's something to watch too. But for another day perhaps