Frostbite1980
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Frostbite1980 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wahoo snow grains in the wind no thanks -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Frostbite1980 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Don't be fooled by a lull the further east you are as the winds whip around the back of the storm as it moves into the north sea there could be some significant gusts. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Frostbite1980 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Agreed......to be honest I personally hope it is a dud but eunice has barely made landfall. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Frostbite1980 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Its not even 10am yet and some are calling dud.....I hope the same people don't come on later and moan they lost a fence lol -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Frostbite1980 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
What concerns me is the latest 12z is probably a half way house, there are some ensembles that make a lot less of the storm but there are also a fair few that are a lot stronger. All we can hope is the less vicious members are right! -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Frostbite1980 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
No let up on the GFS 6z unfortunately. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=54&mode=0 -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Frostbite1980 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I have an emergency responders meeting at 12pm today about impacts for the SE with the Met so it will be interesting to see if a possible red warning may be issued at some point. -
Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020
Frostbite1980 replied to SqueakheartLW's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Sorry Blue, what is this showing?- 1,801 replies
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- stratosphere
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Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Is that the M4 i see? -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi TI can you put that tweet in the tweet thread please because i am interested in seeing it. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I agree with most comments regarding a sustained deep freeze however transient cold snaps seem likely to me. Looking at the gefs after this warm spell the ensemble mean is between 0 and -5 so hardly mild which is different to previous winters where it has been mild throughout. And as a side note a week PV has done us no favours and we have had cold spells with a strong PV many a time before so its just a matter of patience to see what transpires once again. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fingers crossed mate havent seen any white stuff yet and at such low altitude we do struggle -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nice NE flow and showers off the north sea -
Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020
Frostbite1980 replied to SqueakheartLW's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Hi mate, this looks good but is this warming just pushing the PV towards Greenland and Canada which is something we do not want to see but more of a split like you mentioned above? Also the PV seems to still be organised and not stretched like one would like to see?- 1,801 replies
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
However seasonal models or the Met cannot forecast things like SSW more than 2 weeks out at best which could turn a mild winter into an average/below average temp winter. That is something we need to watch IMO -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep cold air about 50 miles further north -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Read them and you will know -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Will hold you to that