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  1. OfficialKevWX

    Winter methodology tables

    Very useful resource
  2. I’d say S London has a better chance than here near Heathrow! Good luck on getting snow tho
  3. It’s not a mean btw, it’s the control run
  4. That was for later in the week anyways..
  5. Get the cold in first then worry about PPN! I’d happily take an easterly even if it short lived wk1 Feb
  6. OfficialKevWX

    Model output discussion - mid January

    Gone is a strong word, there is huge uncertainty after Day 6, so I wouldn’t discount more flipping within OP runs
  7. A few snowflakes falling here!
  8. Arpege decent again for parts of this region..
  9. Snow being reported in parts of Midlands and North Home Counties, might start changing over under any heavy precip here
  10. Cant discount it though. Also last time I checked, Arpege was the higher resolution model out of the two and performed better in most recent snow events...
  11. Id think in this set up you would see falling snow that would struggle to accumulate but yes there is a chance this system moves more south and allows you to get into the zone of settling snow
  12. Last snow event of January possible on Sunday, arpege gives more snow to us before mild air returns
  13. We were never predicted a severe cold spell? Only those who looked on model runs at 240hr + would think that
  14. This thread is just as downbeat as the MOD thread... can’t write off January if models don’t know what’s happening T+96!! Certainly exciting times ahead with a reload of cold air possible if this cold spell dies out. In the more reliable time frame, wintry showers could spread well inland on Tues/Wed and there is a possible chance that the runner could be similar if not further south/north than Dec 10ths’ one which did deliver to many parts of Southern England. Don’t give up hope yet, winter still has until March, and even in spring we can get snow..
  15. OfficialKevWX

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    I’d expect a reload of cold probably around the 23rd if the Atlantic wins out on this one