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Devonshire

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Everything posted by Devonshire

  1. no problem - that is a usual reaction to facts that are hard to swallow ?
  2. Only lurking until the nonsense starts appearing ? - some evidence (for you to deny):
  3. um, 'Year without a Summer' after eruption of Mt Tambora: http://www.branchcollective.org/?ps_articles=gillen-darcy-wood-1816-the-year-without-a-summer
  4. Great post! for goodness sake, get a grip the two of you. Yes, there are fluctuations and variability in climate - always have been and always will be (remember a few years back we were told our children would never see snow?!). If AGW is to blame, how do you explain recent climate change on other planets in the solar system?! The climate IS changing - better look at the decay of our magnetosphere and simultaneous upcoming grand solar minimum. Human pollution and environmental destruction is bad, and needs to stop - but there are other, bigger things going on with the climate.
  5. Insider info.... ? I guess that it is distributed to County Council (Highways) departments and not lower tiers of government - which is all good for main highways, but not so good for local routes that smaller local councils have to keep open! Off topic I know, but important nonetheless... ... back on topic - is no-one able to post a chart or two demonstrating what the 'pivot' issue is regarding likely snowfall totals?
  6. That is interesting. I guess you are talking about something other than the Contingency Planners forecasts that are publicly available on the Met website - I don't see a 2-5 day option on there. How would a local council get hold of that information (not sure our Parish Council has it!).
  7. (Upgrades this morning! - for Dartmoor that is! IMBY is where it is at! Four days of little snowlflake icons on the Met-O forecast! Woohoo - IMBY! South correction, Dartmoor-centric correction!) - there, now I have begun with a nod to the current thread modus operandi, I wonder if anyone can explain what this 'pivot' issue is and how it might happen - ideally with charts (no need to be with respect to Dartmoor!)
  8. I was't going to mention this until successful, but I have proposed to Highways agency that M4 be re-located to run along the Tamar - thus keeping Knocker and everyone else happy with their respective snow fortunes ... sorry, back on topic ...
  9. Thanks LPW - I am proposing we name that low 'Ruby' for clarity ?
  10. So? You can't ignore the trends for it.. MetO are keeping a close eye, they run dozens of options. Yes we won't have nailed an exact track til Sunday/Monday. All about trends at this stage. There are several lows that I have seen modelled to affect us over the coming week to 10 days - for sake of clarity, can we start naming them?! (or at least post a chart and indicate which one is being talked about)
  11. my goodness - has this turned into the clowns' thread??!!!
  12. Given your location, sometimes I am not sure if your reading of the models - and consequent up-beat or down-beat reactions - concern SW France or UK. Most on here interested in UK, and might be mislead if you are giving a downbeat analysis that is based on your neck of the woods. I know you sometimes mention where you are referencing, but not in the post above about flattening pattern. A southerly tracking jet might bring mild, wet and windy to SW France when we are in cold and snowy land in UK - and flatter in SW France is not likely to be so much a problem for UK coldies!
  13. Lol it was just a joke at the time  Maybe you'll have to consider Basil Brush soon ('Boom Boom'!) ?
  14. Hang on - your avatar says you are in Co. Wicklow!!!
  15. Sorry to hear that mate hope you get well soon. I think MS is just sharing the latest folklore weather divination tool - I've heard of crinkling seaweed, dancing otters etc, but not that one - must be related to a black hole anomaly down south ... in other news ... does anyone know of any verification stats or studies on modelling downwelling of SSW to trop - either globally or for a particular locale. I would have thought this to be an area of academic interest.
  16. ... yes, thankfully we do know who they all are! - and they are respected for many reasons - notably, depth of knowledge, and balanced reporting - albeit with a twinkle in the eye when they see a sniff of some Wintery interlude ?. They are easy to distinguish from others who post on here with a less developed knowledge, fragile emotional outbursts, or even deliberate attempts to sow despondency in what is otherwise a very optimistic thread! ????‍♀️?
  17. Devon too - looks like Dartmoor. Better put that in my diary.
  18. Some observations/questions Nick: - what part of the globe is that for? (our little country is rather small in the scheme of things!) - and how is 'success' measured for the sake of those performance stats (rained in London when it said it would?)? Also, if those are correlations (predicted/actual something), then 77% of variance explained by ECM compared to 66% for NAVGEM is not really so huge a difference - and how does that translate into snow/no snow in UK?!; Add to that that the SSW is likely to stretch these models to different degress (and the stats won't have been a
  19. I may be wrong, but I get the impression that the GFS parallel/FV3, or whatever it is best called, has been well-received of late - or is that just it has been providing the best-looking charts rather then most accurate?
  20. MODS - any chance of a 'Happy New Year' thread for those who don't want to bother appending such worthy sentiments to some proper model commentary? - x hundred members might otherwise derail this thread at a rather interesting time!?‍♀️ (Bah Humbug)
  21. ... although interestingly on the charts you show, the mean looks more attractive than the operational!
  22. Don't let the moaners get you down! (no snow flurries today, but a flurry of newly-ignored members getting me close to 22 pages of them now)! MODS - maybe 'the ignored' can be notified each time someone sets them to that status - or at least given stats as to how many people are ignoring them?! I actually think the last couple weeks and upcoming couple weeks of model watching are the most interesting for a long while - looking to see how the different models handle the SSW and indeed how the SSW will play out. I particularly look forward to the posts of the several forum members who take
  23. Better still - make a NY resolution to stop moaning (or take it elsewhere)!
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