January Snowstorm

Massive upgrades this evening for Early next week's Easterly. We even have agreement across all models out sofar!!! I fancy some snowfall in my area, cold minus 8 uppers over the Irish sea

Wow!! Deep cold!!

What I see as favourite is the high pressure meandering close to our shores for the whole month!! I think there's a real risk that retrogression won't happen and we stay dry. Hope I'm wrong. The Met Office seem to see this as an option. Nothing factual, just from years ofi watching charts and how they behave. I think to be hanging on charts at 240hrs is folly, no matter what ensembles say. We have seen backtracks before with 100% agreement on Greenland heights. Just highlighting it as a risk right now There's a reason the Met go 7 days on their outlooks. It's not that their mildies, but they look for accuracy

Yes the control had much higher uppers

Wake me up when we get some weather!! In fairness looks cold

Big upgrade there on the Easterly flow!! Much colder 850s for Monday and Tuesday

Jma seems to end on a west based nao

It's usually when European version isn't great to disguise what's happening. Here's hoping ECM can be better

Yes you are right. The trend this morning is not good. The charts remain just about OK and day 10 seems to remain at day 10

Here's the 168hrs from ukmo. A uk high that might lead to inversion type cold. Look at the uppers, much much milder than what was on table 2 days ago. Anything outside of this timeframe is FI and may or may not happen

He's analysing the charts and looking for where things can go wrong. You should try it sometime. The charts in the reliable are just about OK. Anything decent remains in FI

Control finds a shortwave at 216hrs. No height rises into Greenland at this stage. As per op a delay

Viewed as a snap shot, it's not a great chart

I wonder is there a chance that the Scandi high develops further and the Greenland high delays more. All gold just different types. There is definitely a trend in both op and now control to delay the heights into Greenland. The wise among us know that delays are never good

Looks like the op was an outlier early on. Very good mean and control and the op is stunning deep in FI. So yes I was a bit hasty in earlier comment. It's all good

Yes much better!!

A couple of facts 1 - The Easterly continues to dilute 2 - The Greenland height rises now happen day 12, not day 10. That's deep FI. 3 - The Greenland height rises are weaker than previous run. In general all good but the operational run is not as good as 12z. Fine margins. And to add balance the Mean is still very good, if not better so maybe the op just an outlier

Heavy and persistent frosty nights is a slight exageration. 0 to minus 2 across most areas in early January is nothing to write home about...

Time for a night's sleep. A poor run from the gfs this evening. Ensembles will likely be much better. A uk high hanging around for 2 weeks, NO THANKS

A sobering run is on the menu tonight!

By the way guys, JMA has it all this evening. Bitterly cold Easterly followed by a huge Greenland high!! It ends like this!!! Or should I say begins.... Absolutely bitter!

Just a couple of comments: 1) Southern Ireland coast works similar to Southeast UK in a cold Easterly i.e snow. I should know I live here. So it isn't a foolish hope. We got several inches of snow in 2018. 2) I'm not analysing individual runs. It's a fact that all models have backtracked from the weekend Easterly other than GEM. This time last night they were showing us under minus 8s for several days. Now we go cold (850s wise) for a day or so. Mainly frosty and dry.. Re 'snow won't settle on flooded fields' This in my view isn't correct. If the airmass is cold enough flooded fields will freeze over in a matter of hours. Dec 2009 is an example of this.

So what's happened in 24hours: 1 - The Weekend Easterly has vanished by almost all models barring GEM. This is hurtful because it would have delivered really cold air and perhaps snow showers to regions not favoured under Northerlys. Downgrade, simple as. 2 - Greenland heights at the far end of FI gathering pace. Normally we wouldn't take much notice of this but because all models are favouring it we remain rightly positive. It also ties in with Meto musings which is good!! My personal experience on here is that delays to cold ALWAYS spell bad news for it happening at all. So many hurdles before we get there etc. HOWEVER on this occasion with so much ensemble support and background weak vortex on side I really do think we have a fighting chance....

Another Day 10 from ecm. Disguises what has evaporated in the reliable timeframe!

Goes the Greenland route in the end, another good 240hrs chart lol. There is no cold up North though, it's all out East...