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January Snowstorm

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Everything posted by January Snowstorm

  1. January Snowstorm
    2010
  2. January Snowstorm
    Indeed Nick, but the last ten years have been notable for historically rare events now happening more often! Whether it be extreme heat, cold, wet, stormy 1 in 100 year events are now happening like every 10 years. For me am liking the trend over the last 24 hours and I think we could well see notable weather by around the 24/25 of February.
  3. January Snowstorm
    Is the SSW in the bag now or is there still a chance it won't happen?
  4. January Snowstorm
    Of course if we do get the cold almost every day sooner is vital. For example last days of Feb would be so much better than mid March. Lying snow is more than possible but as March goes on it would be much more a case of falling snow melting quickly! Still beggars can't be choosers any snow would be great
  5. January Snowstorm
    For those worried about March being too late google storm emma Ireland back in '18. An extraordinary event, granted it was 1st March but it closed much of Ireland for about 3 days with red warnings for snow!! It can happen again, be disruptive and also magical well into March.....now what's that noise I hear oh yeah drip drip
  6. January Snowstorm
    Where are Catacol and Carinthian past few days? I would have thought there's enough going on strat wise for a comment... models continue to show benign and indeed quite pleasant weather for the next 10 days. The daffodils will be on the move!
  7. January Snowstorm
    If the reversal does happen and we get Easterly winds we will likely see out the rest of February without a named storm. No named storm during winter would be extraordinary!!
  8. January Snowstorm
    I think the more experienced of us sense we are on the cusp of a special few weeks ahead. As always things can go wrong but this could be the best warming since '18 and omg was that something here!!
  9. January Snowstorm
    When the gfs was running as the parallel it was obvious that it was going on wildly inaccurate runs. It was mentioned on here would its launch be delayed because of that! So it's no surprise that this has continued. The big question is why it's superiors allow it to continue when the old gfs was working fine. We have lost a valuable tool until its next update comes along! 18z rolling, all eyes on the strat for the moment
  10. January Snowstorm
    It's as ugly as it could get really, that after weeks of dross. We can only hope the strat does us a favour!
  11. January Snowstorm
    Great thanks for the info. Better chances so last third of Feb. 2018 certainly delivered here, gave the most snow for Southern Ireland in 50 years and the snow depths were unbelievable 1st March (storm emma)
  12. January Snowstorm
    If the gfs charts are unreliable why do we trust its strat charts. Surely they are also subject to wild swings?
  13. January Snowstorm
    Am reading a lot of posts this morning about the gfs sticking to its guns?! That's not the case the high is further South and the jet is riding over the top. Yes it still brings colder uppers, but they arrive later, are less severe than last night and are further South. This is how the gfs will backtrack bit by bit and that bit has begun this morning in my opinion
  14. January Snowstorm
    Jma rolling and it's a firm no to gfs!! Gfs on its own just like last couple of days!
  15. January Snowstorm
    Great! Hard to work out what's going on tbh. It simply can't be ruled out as an option
  16. January Snowstorm
    Extraordinary stuff really by the gfs! History tells us 2 important things: - Easterly's more than any other weather type have been known to appear suddenly. We have been witness to this over the years. It's possible that the other models are lagging behind. - Rarely does a model stick to its guns so resolutely and be entirely wrong at 72hrs. We simply cannot rule out the gfs option and clearly the Met think so too.
  17. January Snowstorm
    Almost total agreement on the models this evening of a UK high and no Easterly. I see the jma and GEM don't get much of a mention this evening? Both flat as a pancake, evolving to mild Southwesterlys. The gfs is on its own and backtracking slowly but surely. The old gfs would not have been like this, the upgrade has brought the model to cannon fodder, must surely be running last for accuracy
  18. January Snowstorm
    I very much agree. I think this episode has already been decided with too much energy over the top. The gfs, best of the bunch, has already started its backtrack
  19. January Snowstorm
    The 12z gfs was only barely getting far enough North with its Scandi ridge. The 18z is a move in the wrong direction with too much energy going over the top. I don't like the look of it, I personally think it's going to be a bust on its first attempt!!
  20. January Snowstorm
    Not much mention of the Jma Also keeps the high over us. Indeed at times the wind is more Southwest. Certainly no Easterly here
  21. January Snowstorm
    The trend over the years is that the ecm can quite often align with the Icon. If it was the old gfs I would back it all day long but not since the upgrade
  22. January Snowstorm
    On recent form you simply couldn't have confidence in the gfs!! More especially as the ukmo says no and indeed icon
  23. January Snowstorm
    Now your talking!! 240hrs ecm is the best chart in about 6 weeks!! FI of course but icon, gem and ecm all raise an eyebrow this evening
  24. January Snowstorm
    Much better at 216hrs! Indeed very close to something special with such deep cold to our East! At long last some positive developments
  25. January Snowstorm
    The charts are pretty grim really right out to 2nd week of February. I guess anything can happen after that and we still have snow chances for another month at least. Storm Emma landed here on 1st March and gave more snow and drifting than I had seen for 50 years.
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