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January Snowstorm

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    Storm Kathleen

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by January Snowstorm

     Geordiesnow you have a point to a degree, but rules are rules and 80mph in exposed parts of Northwest Ireland means it gets a name! It is a proper storm over sea tonight though when it really ramps up for a while!!

    Also you have kids maybe out camping, mobile parks open for Easter. You get a lot of that in April which could be dangerous 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by January Snowstorm

    Ukmo is more than cold enough to produce the goods!! Remember dews are low from the East. All at 144hrs too! Important ecm later, but as I said last night my gut instinct is this setup has potential for last minute upgrades. I personally think a cracking ecm could be on the cards.. 

    Yes it's March and the drip drip would follow, but afterall snow is ❄️ 

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    As many will remember the gfs upgrade (which must be running over a year now) was very inaccurate compared to the previous mode. When the parallel was running against the op it was all over the place!! This 'all over the place' type run has continued ever since and this week is a further example!! Of course the other models are not covering themselves in glory either.

    Therefore the route forward for Thursday/Friday is very unclear and the biggest guide is the Met Office seem confident! 

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It's back to the drawing board after this Winter. Its been obvious last few years that lrfs are really just a waste of time. The Met were really caught out this year, always so conservative they seemed to almost break rank this year when going for cold. You can argue we were unlucky and perhaps we were but in the end of the day we had the 2nd warmest Christmas eve on record, a snowless Dec and Jan with early Feb also for the scrap heap.

    I much respect those who post about the Strat and background signals. But maybe it's time to admit it's use is very much limited as a forecasting tool. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised that it's this made the Met Office inaccurately call a cold Jan and Feb.

    Folks it's only the weather but for kids it's so disappointing that they may grow up seeing little or any snow. At least we all saw our fair share as we grew up..

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, BigBlizzard said:

    Have we ever seen such an extensive area of warmth to the south modelled at this time of year? Incredible to see this over the 20 odd years of chart watching! It'll be sods law the warmth will have vanished as we approach late spring when most of us want it but it's hard to imagine an area this size being replaced with cold air. Not a winter's over or CC change post, generally interested in whether the level of warmth and extent of warmth modelled has been seen before?

     

     

    ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

    Whether we get cold later in February is unclear but the above chart is the firm favourite to start Feb. It will lead to an early Spring with grass growing, daffodils sprouting etc..not what most of us want but for those working and indeed sleeping homeless it will be very welcome...

    Personally I prefer this to bitter cold without snow falling. Lots of fun seeing snow, not so much just bitterly cold

    • Like 7
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