Chris Lea-Alex

I would love to see a project on the topic of "supercells that actually occurred in the uk" of course, no one has limitless free time!

I wonder if the Venturi effect caused by London's tall buildings has any influence on organising the cells that pass through(?) That, and the urban heat island effect (?)

View to my west from Crystal palace

My garden says thanks

Good morning! Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 30 Apr 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 01 May 2020 ISSUED 07:13 UTC Thu 30 Apr 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan An upper low and associated cold pool will reside above the British Isles during Thursday, with a series of shortwaves rotating anticlockwise around the main parent low. These will provide the focus for more enhanced convection / showers, which may merge to give some longer spells of rain (a mix of dynamic and convective rainfall). One such feature will be affecting SW England during the morning, swinging eastwards across central/southern Britain to clear the east coast by evening. Either side of this, sunshine and diurnal heating will aid the development of numerous scattered showers, with a window of lighter surface winds and a greater potential for some low-level convergence/confluence to become established during the afternoon hours across the Midlands towards eastern England - this may aid development of deep convection. Given 300-700 J/kg CAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates and some marginal shear, a few sporadic lightning strikes are possible. Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter will be possible from the most organised/intense cells. Showers will likely persist well into the evening and night given the proximity of the upper low, but will generally weaken in intensity as daytime heating subsides - the greatest risk of lightning overnight (20%) will probably be over the English Channel. However, the overall setup is rather messy with fairly moist profiles and there may be quite a bit of cloud at times, especially as an occlusion drifts eastwards during the day, and this casts some doubt over how much/widespread lightning activity will be - it seems unlikely to be as significant as was the case on Easter Sunday, for example. Nonetheless, somewhat reluctantly issued a low-end SLGT (30%) for parts of England. Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Personally, the rawness because I want to feel like I'm there. Detail is important to me too, charts, maps etc. However, a viewer that is less into storms might need the whole Netflix vibe to be drawn in. Methinks that is.

In your opinions, should I be keeping me thunderwindow open a crack for this little feature? Do we know where it's headed?

I was looking forward to just the sound of... rain. But even the wet mess is splitting into two around me

Indeed. A wet mess in April feels a lot better than one in August. No reverse psychology methinks. It's it for the time being.... but I'm still leaving the bedroom window open a crack tonight just incase of a cheeky rumble..

Looks like London will miss out... I'm stuck at work anyhow

@Rush2112 I believe Estofex are volunteers so maybe they're not doing as a 'work from home' job

That's what I'm talking about! Hopefully this coronavirus stuff will be done in time

A little off topic by this point in the evening but I got some nice rain at about 3.30 this afternoon. I thought there would be more though... VID_20170608_154210.mp4

Now now gentleman. Size isn't everything ; )

Lucky southerners

Can I still be in here if all I've heard is a solitary rumble back in April? It was literally something that could have happened in Iceland

It sounds like a great idea. Probably not feasible for me at the moment due to working opposite shifts with my wife to look after the little one. Maybe if a storm happened to happen midweek I could get my mum to babysit in a week's notice

There is a tiny part of me that was relieved the storm went where it went and had its back turned to the UK. It was, at one point, destined straight for London and feared there would be some fires and casualties from the electrical part dragging over the densly populated area. I would call it Kent, Sussex, Dorset, Devon clipper * [edit]* I didn't know about the inland cells being separate from the mcs proper as per flash bang's post. I retract my statement

Gonna have a drive east today methinks for a bit of bank holiday scenary for the family. Any recommendations on where I'm likely to see some action? The (least far from Manchester the better) but I'm prepared to go east anglia if the show is good enough

I feel your pain. I was heading south towards Woking yesterday afternoon for a landmark family do when it all kicked off on the Penines

I meant positive intra cloud lightning instead of negative (assuming negative is the default)

I didn't initially know that + IC was a thing. Does it have different characteristics like +CG 'superbolts' do? Does anyone have a link to any images? In light of the discussion, I'm driving from Manchester to Woking tomorrow, my deadline is 5-6pm. Any advice on when to leave / what route I should take to catch any action?

It's 5pm already and I'm not getting that apocalyptic feeling. With no real knowledge of weather I'm gonna bet: Tamworth, tomorrow, 6.01 pm, single cell thunderstorm, chips all-in

Let's fill up right away before there's a strike...

Rain, sun, rain, hope, and optimism for tomorrow and beyond. No electrical shenanigans for north Manchester, where I was today