ghoneym

looking further ahead for more Snaw chances.....as mentioned by @Kirkcaldy Weather a day or so ago, the MJO is in prime phase and forecast to move from phase 7 to 6 then back to 7 again. This gives us more chance of an Atlantic ridge or Scandinavian blocking. The NAO has a much greater % chance of being negative in these phases however the models are not showing this on their output, why? I personally think the SSW downwelling and the effect of the Canadian vortex lobe draining into the Eastern US has trumped standard pattern drivers and thwarted our chances somewhat of the "standard" pattern emerging for the current MJO phases. Thankfully the Canadian Vortex has now started to recede somewhat and will have less of an influence downstream into the Atlantic. So I suppose that begs the question will things improve for us in terms of overall blocking pattern and snow potential? I'm thinking yes and the models will start showing this potential by the middle or end of next week. Teleconnections this winter so far have took a bit of a beating as things have not worked out quite as expected and the overall pattern will need to be carefully analysed to determine why. Even right now the torques and AAM are doing strange things, ~Mountain torque remains high with frictional torque low forcing AAM for longer than expected given the overall momentum budget, things should have started easing off a bit allowing the atmosphere to slow its pace (Imo this then allows for a more wave jet stream allowing the blocking patterns to take hold) This doesn't mean we should dismiss teleconnections as 9/10 times they are the best indication of how an overall pattern longer term will pan out. So a few more days of modelling miseerableness then back to something of a bit more interest. Dont get me wrong here we have done ok in terms of snow and cold, even the far south of the UK has seen some but the potential is there for more and us low level Fifers are snow starved and want some Snaw!! Some charts for consideration while reading the post.

Raining here in the east of Fife

Radar watching at work pal, look g prime for a wee dusting at least

I will be keeping the forum informed of my weather adventures for sure!

@Kirkcaldy Weather Scandi heights are going to become a more prominent feature in the next few weeks I feel. As you say the MJO phase is favourable for some HLB. Hoping for some serious snaw this month as from the start of March until mid June I will be in Texas for work and will miss any March madness here Will be keeping a keen eye on the Radar this evening on the nightshift and I think there will be a chance of some fleeting snow showers anywhere from Aberdeen down the coast to the borders.

netatmo live map, not sure how accurate these are, placement of the outside module is really important obviously, a fair bit of variation

Were in Leven nowadays but obviously close enough to Methil but just rain here today, I was working at Cowdenbeath and we had quite a decent snow shower this morning for a few hours from 7 to 9, didn't last long and turned to mush by midday

Its wet bulb temperature, its too high. It needs to be at freezing or below. Quick math - say its 3.5 degrees in Glasgow centre - relative humidity 91% currently (from netatmo live map) - Then dew point is 2.2 deg C - to work out wet bulb we need the dew point depression so - temperature minus dew point = 1.3 - you then divide this number by 3 = 0.4333 - and subtract from the actual temperature - so your sitting at approx 3 deg C wet bulb temp. Not cold enough for snow. This is the problem our sothern friends will have tommorow also.

The direction of travel is very important in what your talking about, probably a more NW flow rather than a direct Westerly flow. you've probably heard of a Squall before and that's short sharp burst of wind and precip that last minutes rather than seconds. So It is possible yes but like a say direction is important for a strike on Edinburgh area. I work at the jetty at Braefoot Bay on the ships occasionally and the Squalls we experience during winter can be excruciating, yet 6 mile away in say Cowdenbeath, they have very light wind, light precip.

Wednesday, Am through to PM

Short lived, but has the potential to bring strong winds, a true polar low is wind speeds above 40 mph I think, will have enough precip to give a good dump on its paths outer edges if I'm not mistaken.

Here's a better look, hopefully got everybody's area in here somewhere.

A wee snapshot of current temps. Cant see the far South West getting anything from their low, looks a bit warm around Plymouth currently ?️

A think someones been on the glue over at GBW weather, if that's an accumulation chart then no chance. Most of any snow falling south of Northampton / cambridge will thaw pretty quickly as the front moves through. North of that maybe a chance.

Here is the polar low mentioned earlier. Looks a bit Meh tho, for me anyway

Not a bad update for Eastern areas, @Kirkcaldy Weather some could awake to a dusting at least by morning

Ah ok no problem. Maybe not a free to view then

Got a link for the website this is on please ?

Costa del Llannerch-Y-Mor on the East coast of Wales ...... Anyway, whats the script with the ECMWF license stuff, I thought if you pay for the service you can share certain model graphics on certain parameters. Think I read 5 a day or something like that?

Here is my take on Tuesdays snow events using that trusty old Swiss HD model. By Tuesday morning the centre of the low pressure system is out in the bay of Biscay, West of Nantes. Precipitation from the front reaching the Welsh Eastern coast is just starting to show. The charts can be moved on in 1 hour time slots but I have done it in 2 hour time slots here to save posting too many charts. 6am 8am (snow line from Cardiff to the North Penninies) The snow line continues to track in a south easterly direction throughout the day. 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm (rush hour should be interesting!) 6pm 8pm Snow depth totals by Tuesday evening then. Just for bants..... Wednesday could be an interesting day also with freezing for forecast across many parts of the UK from midday through to early evening, again, making rush hour and driving conditions extremely hazardous. For my Scottish comrades, we await Thursday as I think this will bring some decent Snaw for us from the borders up through the central belt. Here's hoping !

The North / South type conversations are quite funny actually, especially considering Tuesdays low hasn't even formed in the Atlantic yet and won't for another 18-24 hours yet approx. So anything further into next week is a bit of a lottery still. This can all change at the drop of a hat.

Streamer clouds hugging the firth of forth on the train from Kirkcaldy to Edinburgh

1032 DD on Wednesday, mother nature getting her bikini on

After last week's wander around Alva Glen, we decided on Dollar Glen this week, just as good a walk if not better. Temps never got above 3 deg C and the forecasted feels like temp was 0 so we layered / wrapped up well but in fairness a good coat and hat would have done as the walk is quite strenuous. Anyway here's some pics

No, the lower on the graph the better. Less mistakes basically. JMA last for those months out of the models shown