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ghoneym
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Posts posted by ghoneym
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10 minute read on model limitations and why ECM trumps GFS.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5004351-
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10 minute read on model limitations and why ECM trumps GFS.
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Inch n a half of snaw, turning quite wet now as well, think that will be the lot for levenmouth this time. Summerhouse thermometer showing 1 degree.
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22 minutes ago, Hawesy said:
It’s just turned to rain here in the last 15 minutes. Temp +0.2c.
That 6 degC your house Hawesy
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Got a few centimetres here in Costa del leven
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For anyone interested...from top left to top right picture on each run...
Air cargo flights - commercial aircraft flights - upper air satellite sensors - surface satellite sensors - weather balloons - sondes and other sensors - METAR observational Data
Bottom left to right picture on each run...
Microwave surface sensors - previous model data run - Atmospheric surface profilers including LIDAR - satellite multi-layer sensors - surface observations inc. ships - Total data.
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Interesting that this latest run has a significant amount more data input that Typical. Those extra flyby's must have pumped much more water vapour into the atmosphere causing those snow depth chart increases....
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9 minutes ago, Downburst said:
Pub run is a total misnomer. It used to, and I haven’t checked recently, but I believe it has the richest of data input. In the states this is the midday run. Not the evening run. So all data inputs into the operational and the ensemble’s. If anyone knows otherwise please confirm. And just to clarify, just because it’s 4 pm in the USA
, doesn’t mean it’s not pub time in 
, far from it as it happens.
Metcheck.com - GFS GDAS Information - How much observation data went into this GFS run? Latest run and archive information
Less Balloon data on the 06z and 18z runs.
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May have been posted on here already but if not check this image out. So cool. EDIT. just noticed @Russstyposted earlier, sorry, defo worth sharing again tho
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Some Christmas day ICON predictions. Will it be cold enough for snow for many in Scotland based on these? Absoloutly on higher ground. Costal areas /lower ground may miss out?
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4 minutes ago, Ravelin said:
GFS 18z rolling out and here's Xmas day...
Overall profile a bit different from its 12Z, cold is further south at the same time, but snow accumulation not as extensive or deep for us.
A run for the bin Rav it's ok tho because it's the 'pub run' and there's no 'balloon data' and it's not showing what I want so I'm going to dismiss it like a Mod thread maniac
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GFS wind chill for the bid day
Plenty snow in that cool air flow, ground temps will be good for it settling also. Even eastern coasts will see snaw from the 12z GFS run. Great stuff!
JMA not too shabby either
ECMWF upper temps more than good enough for snaw all over as well. All trending in the right direction for us North of the border.
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Hannah's site time stamps updates for midday and then midnight so are a bit more up to date than the NASA ozone site(updates typically between 14:00 & 1300). Seems wildly different but let's see what they show this afternoon once the NASA site updates.
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This is the latest 10hpa wind speed on ozone watch.
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Just a quick point on the ARPEGE. It's designed, built and maintained by the same team on the ECMWF programme. It's a global scale model and not to be dismissed lightly. The AROME and ALADIN regional scale models base use AROME data first and foremost. It's showing an potential option at this stage, like all the others.
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Late to the party here.....working Christmas Day buy hey ho. Hope you all have a Great Christmas!
Measurements
Min Temp -1ºC
Max Temp +0.5ºC
Wind chill -5ºC
AM - Cauld. frosty, breeze picking up.
PM- Incoming blizzards. 15-20cm by Turkey time
PS if you want the º symbol, try holding the ALT key and typing 0176 on a windows desktop keyboard. For Mac its hold ALT and press 0 (zero) Not sure how to do it on an iPad or phone with shortcuts. Cheers
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Flickering lights here. Still have power on at the moment. Fifejammerlocations on Facebook has pictures of trees down in lots of places in fife
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Hi everyone first post of the season, straight into the glory hunting with a red warning for wind trampolines tied down, evening dog walk postponed.batten doon the hatches!
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Igloo update
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Igloo progress
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Beach snaw
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Approaching 4 inches here, amazing
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2 minutes ago, Livet Laddie said:
We had a minor streamer this morning...but even though it probably snowed a couple of hours it was like powder and only gave an extra cm or so. We are on day 48 with snow laying here continuously...54 days laying since 1st December. Depth at present is about 30 cm, much deeper in drifts. Sunny afternoon and max -3C. Lost count of ice days...Pic of road near house- they stopped clearing side roads due to cut backs.
That's incredible stats. Unusual for location or par for the course?
Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24
in Scottish Weather Discussion
Posted
Yeah so Fife getting battered...