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    Methil, Fife
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  1. Workshop: Stratospheric predictability and impact on the troposphere (18-21 November 2019): Programme · ECMWF Events (Indico) EVENTS.ECMWF.INT #StratosphericWS This workshop brought together experts to discuss and propose ways forward in representing the stratosphere in current and future... A lot of presentations to get through but worth a watch, lots of learnings. Amy Butler's presentation is superb in session 1. Interesting take from the presentation is the El Nino / La Nina relationship to SSW. Pre 1981 data shows a relationship between strong EL Nino years and SSW but post 1981 this relationship is no longer there and there have been more SSW's during La Nina years showing the lack of linear relationship between ENSO and SSW's. The representation of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in S2S models Speaker: Amy Butler
  2. Sorry mardatha I shud have mentioned I'm still in Beaumont texas
  3. Howdy everyone some interesting weather here tonight, its currently 1:30 in the morning and over, workplace been evacuated due to tornado, flood and thunderstorm warnings. The last 2 hours 3 inches of rain has fell, a tornado track was spotted 5 mile south of my appartment, on occasions there have been more lightning strikes per second than you could count, its insane and I'm loving it lol 20190510_014116.mp4
  4. Another cold one here this morning brrrrrr
  5. No weather pictures because it's just dull and cold so here some from wallmart
  6. Frickin cold here today, 4 deg C but wind chill had a bite, to get down to freezing here overnight, may have to scrape the car window in the morning, in texas, wow on a more serious note, there was 24 people killed yesterday from a tornado in neighbouring Alabama, 650 miles away from where I am in Beaumont, which is like a tornado in Belgium when I'm in Fife, so although it's very far away, the storm systems start and move from much closer to here. Unbelievable devastation the videos I've seen on the weather chanel, don't think I will bother storm chasing after all . Hope ya'll get some snaw soon, things looking up
  7. Day 1 in texas and I haven't seen a tornado yet. I am raging! It's been raining and overcast since I arrived, quite muggy tho, 19/20 deg C
  8. Very windy down by the river Leven where it enters the Firth of forth, tide not fully in yet a don't think but the waves are picking up and I'd imagine will be toppling the wall at some point soon, quite common for here and the swimming pool(just to the right outside the picture) often gets a flooded basement
  9. @Kirkcaldy Weather I tried to PM you but keeps saying you cant receive messages??
  10. A think the thistle oil rig in the north sea has just taken off....must be a fault, surely
  11. @Kirkcaldy Weather its midweek and look whats now starting to show up...
  12. @Kirkcaldy Weather I will PM you with some stuff soon
  13. looking further ahead for more Snaw chances.....as mentioned by @Kirkcaldy Weather a day or so ago, the MJO is in prime phase and forecast to move from phase 7 to 6 then back to 7 again. This gives us more chance of an Atlantic ridge or Scandinavian blocking. The NAO has a much greater % chance of being negative in these phases however the models are not showing this on their output, why? I personally think the SSW downwelling and the effect of the Canadian vortex lobe draining into the Eastern US has trumped standard pattern drivers and thwarted our chances somewhat of the "standard" pattern emerging for the current MJO phases. Thankfully the Canadian Vortex has now started to recede somewhat and will have less of an influence downstream into the Atlantic. So I suppose that begs the question will things improve for us in terms of overall blocking pattern and snow potential? I'm thinking yes and the models will start showing this potential by the middle or end of next week. Teleconnections this winter so far have took a bit of a beating as things have not worked out quite as expected and the overall pattern will need to be carefully analysed to determine why. Even right now the torques and AAM are doing strange things, ~Mountain torque remains high with frictional torque low forcing AAM for longer than expected given the overall momentum budget, things should have started easing off a bit allowing the atmosphere to slow its pace (Imo this then allows for a more wave jet stream allowing the blocking patterns to take hold) This doesn't mean we should dismiss teleconnections as 9/10 times they are the best indication of how an overall pattern longer term will pan out. So a few more days of modelling miseerableness then back to something of a bit more interest. Dont get me wrong here we have done ok in terms of snow and cold, even the far south of the UK has seen some but the potential is there for more and us low level Fifers are snow starved and want some Snaw!! Some charts for consideration while reading the post.
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