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  1. ghoneym

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    KP5 aurora activity expected tonight, northern parts of Scotland may get lucky. May go for a long drive later....
  2. ghoneym

    GOLF ( U.S.Masters, Fantasy Competitiom )

    I'd love to join in if that's ok Group A :- McIlroy, Woods, Rose Group B :- Watson, Stenson, Fleetwood Group C:- Reed, Oosthuizen, Noren Group D:- Kuchar, Schauffle, Dechambeau And for my NAP I will go for X. Shauffele please Looking forward to this! Good luck everyone.
  3. Some heavy ass snow predicted on the WRF late tomorrow afternoon through into Tuesday. Mega slush fest?
  4. ghoneym

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    Neat new feature on Earthnull, now the aurora is included
  5. Mossmorran doing their bit to help the snow melt and advance the spring forward
  6. Some nice early spring weather in Fife today, had a walk with the kids from dysart to kirkcaldy, 10 deg C very gentle breeze, sun strong enough to heat the beach sand so you could walk bare foot. What will next week bring "polar opposite" possibly?
  7. The timings look perfectly correlated to me. The wave forcing shaped by the AAM spike surely cannot be denied. In terms of time taken to impact the start I believe several days, 6km per day so reaches 100mb in 36 hours or so, during this time waiting for further wave activity the 10mb and 1mb are effected by the previous wave. It takes another few days for the next wave to take effect and an adiabatic heating process starts taking shape giving us the warming. Could you give us your thoughts please regarding this. A bit more detail would be helpful.
  8. I think if he was to expand on his comments then he would be referring to tropics > extra tropics > MT> Stratosphere > troposphere > high lat blocking > Easterly > further assisted by continued downwelling courtesy of SSW ? Lets ask him mr Sciaffe in the comments section of his blog
  9. Thanks for your views / opinions Interitus.
  10. Interested to know thoughts in here regarding the final warming. Looks to me currently like a very weakened stratosphere polar vortex, but hasn't been fully finished off yet like some had expected (Amy Butler tweet quoted at top this page of the thread, 17th March as possible final warming based on GEFS/GFS data). Looking at the available stratosphere charts from meteociel at 10mb and our very own 30mb chart it looks like another small warming hit end of March start of April? current 60 N winds trending close to the mean, total heat flux barely noticeable currently but enough to finish things off towards the end of the month? I had a read of the following abstract and to me its clear from this, that during years with late winter major warming, the final warming will also come later.
  11. As we are heading towards the second half of March it could be thought that any snow falling would fail to settle. However wet bulb temperature is a good way to determine if falling snow will settle. Taking a Buch of averages from the south east, 2m temperature, relative humidity, SLP, dew point and firing it into the calculator the wet bulb temp looks good for the south east. Average -2 for the times of shown precipitation on Arpege / WRF / Hirlam. Anything below zero is what your looking for. Dew points can be found on meteociel Arpege 0.1 called "point rosee" A link to the calculator is attached. Wet bulb temperature calculator https://www.weather.gov/epz/wxcalc_rh
  12. Been snowing here all morning, footprints refilling as we speak
  13. Just ran the gauntlet home from work. Cowdenbeath through lochgelly, then balingary, then lochore, kinlassie, glenrothes - leven. 4x4 old Honda CRV with winter tyres and it was mental scary! The snow was pretty impressive too seriously tho I've never seen anything like it, the drift of the fields would make all these roads inpassible if it wernt for the snowploughs who are doing a great job imo oh and a wee total update from leven....yee ha
  14. ghoneym

    Scottish winter photos

    Leven, Fife 28th Feb 2018
  15. @Hawesy bang on 3 inches here mate, radar showing potential for another wee bawhair but can't wait up to measure at midnight, getting picked up for work at half 4 in the morning